Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin

The Atlantic starting to kick at 204 as other people have said we really do need to a slider scenario to rebuff the cold from the east .

Eastern Russia isn't really waking up to the fact winter is coming

Edited by cold snap
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Just goes to show how quickly cold uppers can appear to our East. Currently there are above average temperatures into Eastern Europe. Promising for times ahead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Well not a cobra run ,in typical Uk winter fashion as soon as we get as we get cold uppers fighting back we loose the block out west ,and the Atlantic starts knocking on the door

It's not far off a sliding low. Anyway some better Synoptics than the 12z. Even if a pub run from the GFS :p
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

post-9095-0-21910100-1384555714_thumb.jp

Polar vortex in absolute shambles .

This is about as zonal as it's gets apparently isn't it?

Starring down the barrel of a zonal December . . . .

How about on the brink of a major pattern change where there is no end in sight of cold weather .

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Interesting, the latest FAX doesnt support the low over the UK and instead of the low its showing a slack northerly, the 528dam line cutting over my location towards Aberdaron then Northern Ireland and a trough behind the cold front which may bring a few snow showers for the east as its embedded in the colder 528 dam line. 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gobsmacking 18z GFS run, absolutely gobsmacking. I think Steve Murr used the phrase 'short term pain for long term gain' earlier and today's transition in the model outputs may well be summed up by that. As often with a major pattern shift the models struggle to get a handle on the evolution. Let's keep watching for this 18z transition into the Scandi high because it's a true blast from the past set up which could lock down for some weeks, well into December at any rate and all that entails in terms of bitterly cold conditions. If this one shows up on the 0z overnight runs then it's game on.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

The Scandi high was shown on nearly every run of the CFS earlier in the week and I did suggest this evolution to occur given the consistency of the CFS. If the transition occurs next week to a Scandi high, the CFS (especially when it has consistency) will definitely go up in my books!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78340-model-output-discussion-1st-nov2013/?view=findpost&p=2831063

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

The problem with that though is when you view charts from different models which show a strong/taught tight vortex cooling still and driving jet energy above the UK it doesn't give me confidence of anything that could resemble a prolonged cold spell as much as I want it too...

 

 

The models all now see a vortex joining not splitting which worries me in terms of bulding high latitude blocking.........

 

Just cursery mid lat blocks which tease us but because of the strength of the vortex deceive us in the models up until day 4/5. Then they topple.

 

I want to see a complete split vortex then ill be happy with a 1065 ghPosted Image

 

Roll on the cold pleaseeeeeee

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS 18z 2m temp short ensembles - Central England.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=245&y=96&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

Chilly.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Superb charts of late, loving Frosty's excellent posts !! Cannot believe these charts have came around so abruptly, it was only last week when we were expecting zonality to rage on pretty much for the next month! 

I would like to note that despite seeing that Scandi high in FI with modest uppers, surface conditions will likely be near to freezing, as the winds are being drawn in off a rapidly cooling continent. Snow showers will still be possible despite the unfavourable uppers, dew points will be very low. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

In my opinion the cold outlook has strengthened on todays models, especially when you add the upgraded prolonged cold outlook from the met office. More fantastic output again tomorrow I have no doubt. :-)

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

There seems to be a lack of mention to the small Atlantic low pressure seen on the FAX chart above and highlighted below.

 

post-4523-0-91104800-1384558665_thumb.gi

 

I suspect that this is critical and is modeled differently in each output. It is not initially critical in the way that it will affect us down the line, but more so in the fact that it shows us how differently each output is in distributing the amount of energy in each section of the jet stream, and how this upstream pattern will have a knock on affect to how the ridge behaves downstream. Keep an eye on this area and even slightly further west on future runs.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Solid, very solid. 

Given Chino's thoughts and a few teasing GFS runs, I wonder whether the models will settle for a robust high to the north east of the UK over the next 24 hours. If we could get some cold air from the Arctic down into Europe with the block in place then we would be in very good shape, much better than seeing the synoptic in February for example.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=179

It is pretty irrelevant me pointing this out, since the details change so frequently, but I am intrigued at how far south the snow risk extends on the ens. Whether or not it transpires in this manner ultimately, November snow in the far south of England is undeniably unusual, even if it does occur from time to time. A very cold set of ensembles and I notice that in the North of England, the mean is a rather bitter -8 for a fair while! http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=254&y=2

A cold set for the whole country. Just one set, but interesting nonetheless and I am intrigued as to whether this will be reflected in other runs and models or whether in fact it is an anomaly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

We have just removed a post which was a personal dig at another member.

Please keep it friendly guys-thanks.Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Solid, very solid. 

Given Chino's thoughts and a few teasing GFS runs, I wonder whether the models will settle for a robust high to the north east of the UK over the next 24 hours. If we could get some cold air from the Arctic down into Europe with the block in place then we would be in very good shape, much better than seeing the synoptic in February for example.

Extremely unlikely that a Scandi high would lead to severe cold at this jecture because we need the cold down from the arctic first.

 

Compare the ECM OP anomaly at T+240 with that of its ensembles. Spot the difference anyone?

 

Op

post-4523-0-11124700-1384559979_thumb.gi

 

Ens

post-4523-0-50227200-1384559984_thumb.gi

 

Seems to back up that GFS 50 hPa chart.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

We have just removed a post which was a personal dig at another member.

Please keep it friendly guys-thanks.Posted Image

just to add to Phil's post, please keep it on-topic....this thread is for model output discussion, nothing else........please take the hint and help make the moderating team's (they're all volunteers) lives a little easier..........If it's not output related material, then it doesn't belong in here......ta Posted Image

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: kings lynn
  • Location: kings lynn

just to add to Phil's post, please keep it on-topic....this thread is for model output discussion, nothing else........please take the hint and help make the moderating team's (they're all volunteers) lives a little easier..........If it's not output related material, then it doesn't belong in here......ta Posted Image

Or, maybe we can just steer a little of topic for absent friends,(TEITS)and wish him the best?

Edited by norfolksnow
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...