Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yeah, best sinker I've seen

 

 

Another Ian Brown WTF? special coming up I'd imagine...

Edited November 15, 2013 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

Biggest upgrade today is not the gfs or ecm or ukmo its the latest met office updates..its cold with below average temps until mid december with high pressure generally to the north of the uk with low pressure to the east or southeast :-)

[MR EXTREMES]

im sorry I see a return to zonal there is nothing tonight to get my shovel ready lol December 2011 is not even a bigger failure than today.

but im going to hold fire until Saturday 12 hr model run but none have anything really to suggest better cold prospects futher out.

 

frosty its likely to change tomorrow more likely by sunday it will read a very different story.

Edited November 15, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Panayiotis]

A sort of wedge at 192hrs... potential is still there

[Summer Sun]

Some colder uppers edging towards Scotland at t192

 

[Ian Brown]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-168.GIF?15-0

 

You can see that bit of milder air creeping back into Scotland whicn IIRC I mentioned on the first post tonight-

 

Does the 192 bring the reload- whats the heights like over Greenland at 192....

 

S

Kerching.

 

Come to papa.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-192.GIF?15-0

 

It only merits that comment if you are going to pull the LP down from N Scandi, which you are not because the jet will just link up with the Low heights over Europe, holding the cold air to the NE.

[shedhead]

Yes, a very quick collapse in even the Northerly and I think we are just looking at HP ridging in.

Indeed Ian, the first disappointment of the season now looks like it's steadily unfolding in front of our eyes. How many times have we seen this type of thing over the years though, i.e the models slowly build up a decent cold senario in the 6-8 day range, then quickly knock it down again in the 4-5 day range. Lessons to be learnt here for the coming Winter for sure, the main one being what you allued to yesterday, i.e anything out of the north or east in Winter then FI begins around T+96hrs. I think if folk accept that basis premise they shouldn't go to far wrong, because expecting the models to handle weather from the north and east as well as they handle weather from the south and west is very unrealistic. 

[Snowman.]

NYC would be buried.

 

 

[Joe Levy]

Regardless of specifics, which are nigh on impossible to predict, it is the re-occurrence of charts like this that explain my optimism. Clearly the models want high pressure to form somewhere in the North Atlantic, reflected in the height anomaly charts. It's where exactly that makes the difference. The issue is that tiny details can overcomplicate matters and so this is why trend spotting is a more intelligent idea rather than losing all sense of reality every time a chart is not so good for cold, or equally if it is fantastic for cold. We must use our heads and our experience! 

[Ian Brown]

Indeed Ian, the first disappointment of the season now looks like it's steadily unfolding in front of our eyes. How many times have we seen this type of thing over the years though, i.e the models slowly build up a decent cold senario in the 6-8 day range, then quickly knock it down again in the 4-5 day range. Lessons to be learnt here for the coming Winter for sure, the main one being what you allued to yesterday, i.e anything out of the north or east in Winter then FI begins around T+96hrs. I think if folk accept that basis premise they shouldn't go to far wrong, because expecting the models to handle weather from the north and east as well as they handle weather from the south and west is very unrealistic. 

 

We certainly had a couple of let downs last November even before the December debacle. 

[Mucka]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-168.GIF?15-0

 

You can see that bit of milder air creeping back into Scotland whicn IIRC I mentioned on the first post tonight-

 

Does the 192 bring the reload- whats the heights like over Greenland at 192....

 

S

Kerching.

 

Come to papa.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-192.GIF?15-0

 

And low pressure undercutting. If we get a cut off high then the gate is open to our North and boom!

At least there is still promise in the charts even if the medium term looks less exciting though still chilly.

Actually this is quite a cold run from ECM for central England.

[Snowman.]

im sorry I see a return to zonal there is nothing tonight to get my shovel ready lol December 2011 is not even a bigger failure than today.

but im going to hold fire until Saturday 12 hr model run but none have anything really to suggest better cold prospects futher out.

 

frosty its likely to change tomorrow more likely by sunday it will read a very different story.

 

Are you actually being serious?

 

We seeing the same models?

Edited November 15, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[shedhead]

It only merits that comment if you are going to pull the LP down from N Scandi, which you are not because the jet will just link up with the Low heights over Europe, holding the cold air to the NE.

And more to the point it's T+192hrs again... just remember how things looked at +144hrs only 24hrs ago.  The carrot and stick avatar looks about right.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It only merits that comment if you are going to pull the LP down from N Scandi, which you are not because the jet will just link up with the Low heights over Europe, holding the cold air to the NE.

 

Ian, the course of you're comments over the last 30 minutes...

 

*Sinker by 168

*Sinker by 216

*No sinker but cold air won't reach us

[MR EXTREMES]

pv looks like its on the move at t192 though which can only help but its a mess to be honest.

[Summer Sun]

Scotland becoming colder again at t216

 

 

keep an eye on the high though it *may* come into play and force the low to go over Greenland erasing the northern blocking

Edited November 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

Very cold SURFACE conditions from the ECM tonight from day 4.

 

The England CET will take a tumble as we cold from cold uppers ( -6c) that getting fully mixed down, to an inversion lid keeping it cold at the surface from day 5-8.

Very frosty conditions, but equally pleasant in the day.

 

All eyes on the 216 chart- but that's 2 runs from the ECM with short term pain for long term gain.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-216.GIF?15-0

 

A wedge of high pressure there that slows it all down- but ultimately *may* not be enough to slow it down period.

It depends on whether the energy moves ENE or ESE at 216 in reality.... not in model world.

 

 

Im off out again.

enjoy the eve.

S

Edited November 15, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Joe Levy]

Certainly the BBC need to change their forecasts for Tuesday-Thursday PDQ.

But the BBC would be much wiser to wait until there is greater consensus and consistency in the models, a piece of advice which we should all pay heed to as well! The model output at the moment is not great for cold, but it is not dire. We are not talking a bartlett or wall to wall zonal. I wonder how people will then react if we get extremely cold charts tomorrow, and then less cold charts the day after... will they forget that this day ever happened?!

[swfc]

Well at 216 hours at least were getting the so important snow cover to the north and east not so great here tho and on that note ill get my coat!!!

[Methuselah]

 

"I wish people would wait until the run was out instead of declaring each frame as an upgrade or downgrade, newbies won't have a clue what is going on, especially as the comments are generally by people who don't anyway."

 

As long as people are commenting on the output that is out and not commenting on possible future output I see no problem with it. 

We don't have to wait for a 240 chart to know that the run is downgrade out to 144 do we?

 

I suppose a UK high wouldn't be the end of the world. Frost and crisp sunshine hopefully. My only problem with a UK high is that they tend to outstay their welcome and I soon long for a bit more variety and the chance of a pattern that could lead to snow.

 

Maybe you have a point, NN...But all folks see things differently...Perhaps you should 'agree to disagree'?

[Mucka]

Well we are still going to get some much colder weather in the medium term and the longer term is still up for grabs.

A little disappointing overall compared to some of the juicy charts yesterday but plenty of interest still in the output which is what it is all about.

[Panayiotis]

Very cold SURFACE conditions from the ECM tonight from day 4.

 

The England CET will take a tumble as we cold from cold uppers ( -6c) that getting fully mixed down, to an inversion lid keeping it cold at the surface from day 5-8.

Very frosty conditions, but equally pleasant in the day.

 

All eyes on the 216 chart- but that's 2 runs from the ECM with short term pain for long term gain.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-216.GIF?15-0

 

A wedge of high pressure there that slows it all down- but ultimately may not be enough to slow it down period.

 

 

Im off out again.

enjoy the eve.

S

Maybe but dont forget the trough over Europe, as long as this is being shown cold chances will come...

Edited November 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[NorthernRab]

im sorry I see a return to zonal

. 

You might see a return to zonal, but could you please SHOW it as well, i.e. with some charts?

 

 

This topic is swiftly descending into a thread where we share our feelings rather than our thoughts!

[Snowy L]

I think one thing that will prevent us from getting a good block is that the PV is clearly reluctant to sink too far South. We need solid low pressure in Southern Scandinavia to force a block to our Northwest. I still hold hope for something better in early December though. Still more disruption to the lower stratospheric vortex being forecast with warmings expected over Greenland. Could orientate the vortex more in our favour and get it to sink into Scandinavia.

[Ian Brown]

Well day 10 is a long way off but the PV is becoming well organised to the NW by then and we know what would be coming.