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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Under clear skies parts of the UK (not only the north) could see lows drop down to -8C if this occured:

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Beaufort12 Apprentice

Beaufort12

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,windstorms
  • Location: .
Posted

I'm glad this happened as it has reminded me how pointless model watching is. Last winter was disgusting to follow. Good bye(I'm not throwing toys I'm saving my sanity) :p

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Hmmm not a great 144 hr chart tbh but it as been coming today however you dress it up.Still could be worse i could be staying in for the 18z instead of going out to the pub!!Posted Image

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

Why ? How can the energy go South from that position ? Mid-latitude High - at best, possibly even worse by T168.

 

These charts are not to be relied upon, many times over the last year the NWP has overtaken the trends being projected by the anomaly charts.

 

Ian you never use the NH charts

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-144.GIF?15-0

 

look at the ridging ahead & behind the atlantic low-

 

As said its not the 'picture perfect' set up now with complications however wait for the 168 chart & see....

 

also the UK fully covered in -6c air at 144.- that's 8 degrees below normal for London.

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Yes, and the jet had ridden well over the top, this isn't going to be pretty going on - except for you Gav ! 

 

Really Ian? I've seen far worse charts than that ECM day 6 chart. Far worse.

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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

 

I alluded to Dec 12 earlier, here we go. It ain't happening folks. Ecm will be poor. That is compared to Stella runs of yesterday, HLB wont happen. Models honing in on a much lesser event.BFTP

Its a million miles away from the zonal call that you have beenkeen to promote.Very happy with the ECM 12z tonight so far. T168 onwards shouldbe worth viewing.
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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted

Very different and much less enticing from yesterdays charts for our tiny little Island but looks to be lining up for a second bite of the cherry in FI.

Posted Image

This still has alot of potential down the line,and euro cooling down,good end to autumn imo.
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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Could people please look at the Northern hemisphere charts, it will stop you looking foolish. Look towards the west and south of Greenland (not shown on the Europe view). It really is misleading to look merely at Europe, we know that whatever happens to our West is important for what happens next.

Edited by ukpaul
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Joe Levy Community Regular

Joe Levy

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted

My view is that if things have so dramatically changed in the last 12-24 hours, we still have several more periods of the same length for things to dramatically change in either direction! So don't despair because of today's runs - see what they do tomorrow and the day after etc. until we get to a time frame where we can have a little bit more certainty! The modelling of shortwaves that appear later on will also be crucial, and many of them won't have been picked up yet.

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted (edited)

ukmo its the model that was pointing towards the downgrade two days ago although lastnights faxs where fantastic I wonder what there be like tonight oh my.

 

the only saving grace is lower pressure into mid southern Europe.

Edited by model rollercoaster
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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

Really Ian? I've seen far worse charts than that ECM day 6 chart. Far worse.

 

CC, the charts are a huge downgrade. Of course there are worst charts than the T144, but how do you get back to HLB from there ? It's a chart with no optimism.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

No, it's not "blatantly obvious". The term is very ambiguous, that's the problem really. It can make it hard to follow explanations, or at least it's hard for me, and I don't think I'm entirely on my own. I don't think met training has anything to do with it since plenty of terminology is thrown around nicely already. Clear, unambiguous terminology just makes it way easier for the reader to suss what is being talking through.

Indeed, forecaster, 'energy' is not an immediately obvious concept...Unless it's supposed to men the potential for doing work?

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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

For example - ECM at 168h

 

Posted Image

 

EDIT: Barry beat me to it!

Edited by ukpaul
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Good (not as good as earlier runs) but that shortwave has deepened and now is taking the PV away from Greenland. At 192hrs we need to see some kind of WAA north to hopefully form some kind of Icelandic wedge..

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Could people please look at the Northern hemisphere charts, it will stop you looking foolish. Look towards the west and south of Greenland (not shown on the Europe view). It really is misleading to look merely at Europe, we know that whatever happens to our West is important for what happens next.

 

Good shout, Greenland High building based on t168

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

t168 sees the coldest uppers leaving all but the SE

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Only the low heights over Italy are preventing a Bartlett style sinker, perhaps remaining settled to day 9 before it does sink.

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Joe Levy Community Regular

Joe Levy

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted

CC, the charts are a huge downgrade. Of course there are worst charts than the T144, but how do you get back to HLB from there ? It's a chart with no optimism.

 A chart cannot have optimism. It is how you read it that determines whether it seems positive or not. The general theme of building high pressure further north than one would expect for the time of year means that even if this particular event does not bring bitter cold to the UK, it still presents opportunities further down the line. Given that many people on here are finding optimism in the current charts, it is possible to be optimistic about them. I suspect that we are all inflicting our own wishes on the weather, which is really out of our control haha!

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Jonan92 Enthusiast

Jonan92

Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Posted

The issue is that we are again loking at +144t to see something interest.

 

Two days ago we had this

 

Posted Image

 

However, this is how Wednesday looks today

 

Posted Image

 

Such a big change in two days, difficult to rely in what ECM shows at 168t

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-168.GIF?15-0

 

You can see that bit of milder air creeping back into Scotland whicn IIRC I mentioned on the first post tonight-

 

Does the 192 bring the reload- whats the heights like over Greenland at 192....

 

S

Kerching.

 

Come to papa.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111512/ECH1-192.GIF?15-0

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