Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[shaky]

Blimey what the hell has the ukmo come up with at 120hours!!looks pretty cold but it shows a cold low slap bang in the middle of England!!!better than the gfs though which is brilliant

[Summer Sun]

UKMO sees the high moving over the UK at t144

 

 

Before that it has a low right over the UK would be nice to know what the 850's are at t120.

 

 

Quite a big difference from GFS

 

Edited November 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Snowman.]

I honestly don't understand why people are slating this run?

Its COLD COLD and more cold.

What do peeps expect in mid November?????

I'm not moaning about the current output, I'm moaning at the fact it can't make its mind up on what to do.

 

On the other hand almost an Arctic High, Cross-polar flow the lot yet low heights in Central Europe.

 

PV just sits there in prime position and wants none of it, however all signals are clear about December starting off abnormal.

 

 

[weatherguy]

It's almost always good news for us if the PV segment over greenland decides to go on holiday to Siberia, as is being modelled.  Makes any potential beast from the east a mouthwatering prospect, while also reducing the threat of any successful attack from the west  

[radiohead]

UKMO is sending energy further north too.

 

[Panayiotis]

850hpa temps are unknown for this chart but I think some places could see some hefty snow showers if this occurs...

We await the fax charts later!!!   It would also be interesting to see if any modifications are applied to them...

[Mucka]

Look there will always be upgrades/downgrades but this time last wk we wouldve screamed for this.It still sets us up for an intruiging few wks and maybe wint.er,the pv looks like struggling against background signals so enjoy it for what it is!

 

Personally, I guess I'm just not a happyclappy kinda guy. Tell it the way it is, that's me.

But yeah a sense of perspective is always helpful and positive thinking is better than negative but we should also recognise context - are the prospects for cold and snow increasing or decreasing with this run?

Ultimately I enjoy the ride, the highs and lows and all the emotion of MO threads so long as it doesn't deteriorate into mindless wrist slitting or pointless hopecasting. (Guilty on all counts BTW  )

Edited November 15, 2013 by Mucka

[Gibby]

I never have understood why people get so frenetic over each run. To me this cold spell (with my 50 years experience) was only going to produce cold rain and sleet to all but the higher ground. So while it might seem a downgrade the upgrade was mostly superficially over ramped from what was likely to occur so perhaps the downgrade isn't as big as some might believe and should come as no surprise as all the best charts were from outside the reliable 5 days range. I still think there will be some eye candy for some to salivate over on the remaining runs tonight but I for one, even if they show good synoptics will not be dusting off any snow shovel yet. It is too early in the season at least in the South. Sea temperatures are too high still and the ground has still got a lot of warmth left in it after a mild Autumn. Wait a month and see these synoptics then I will get more excited.

[The Northern Ramper]

"I wish people would wait until the run was out instead of declaring each frame as an upgrade or downgrade, newbies won't have a clue what is going on, especially as the comments are generally by people who don't anyway." As long as people are commenting on the output that is out and not commenting on possible future output I see no problem with it. We don't have to wait for a 240 chart to know that the run is downgrade out to 144 do we? I suppose a UK high wouldn't be the end of the world. Frost and crisp sunshine hopefully. My only problem with a UK high is that they tend to outstay their welcome and I soon long for a bit more variety and the chance of a pattern that could lead to snow.

But if they cannot read the charts correctly and post on every frame it just confuses things, for example the ukmo coming out now is described as good,bad and undecided.

[swfc]

The ukmo is at 144 hrs is heading in the same direction as gfs.pv is just to strong imo

[Snowman.]

Is that trough disruption east?

 

 

 

But that that's a good run lots of energy going under and it will try meet with the low heights over France.

[ITSY]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

 

Better than GFS but taken together it does represent a downgrade on what we have seen in previous runs, with both sending more energy Northwards and the HP sinking into the UK (albeit on a more noticeable scale with GFS). Doesn't mean to say it won't be cold mind, and some snow showers could occur almost anywhere based off either run through the middle of next week. 

[Joe Levy]

UKMO is sending energy further north too.

 

Do you think this is a good or a bad thing? I mean clearly we want the high to be propped up sufficiently if we are looking for any wintry prospects, but at the same time we don't want the high to topple. Would I be right in saying that there is a fine balance here?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I never have understood why people get so frenetic over each run. To me this cold spell (with my 50 years experience) was only going to produce cold rain and sleet to all but the higher ground. So while it might seem a downgrade the upgrade was mostly superficially over ramped from what was likely to occur so perhaps the downgrade isn't as big as some might believe and should come as no surprise as all the best charts were from outside the reliable 5 days range. I still think there will be some eye candy for some to salivate over on the remaining runs tonight but I for one, even if they show good synoptics will not be dusting off any snow shovel yet. It is too early in the season at least in the South. Sea temperatures are too high still and the ground has still got a lot of warmth left in it after a mild Autumn. Wait a month and see these synoptics then I will get more excited.

Exeter seem to think it could produce significant accumulations and not just to higher ground...

[weatherguy]

Gav: UKMO sees the high moving over the UK at t144

 

(accidentally removed the proper quote oops, apologies)

 

I think that has energy going under the block too Gav, certainly seeing some trough distruption, and that euro trough is well placed to prop up the high and prevent zonality 

Edited November 15, 2013 by weatherguy

[sebastiaan1973]

Please use this chart for the 850hPa, and wait for wetterzentrale update.

 

 

[shaky]

Much better than the gfs and a lot more energy going south!!a very cold run to be honest!!

[Panayiotis]

The ukmo is at 144 hrs is heading in the same direction as gfs.pv is just to strong imo

I dont think it is, low in Atlantic will help with WAA towards Greenland..

[stewfox]

But if they cannot read the charts correctly and post on every frame it just confuses things, for example the ukmo coming out now is described as good,bad and undecided.

 

Indeed where is SM when you need him ?

 

Models seem to be throwing out all sorts.

 

I have offered to wash his car for a update from the great man.

[xerxes]

I never have understood why people get so frenetic over each run. To me this cold spell (with my 50 years experience) was only going to produce cold rain and sleet to all but the higher ground. So while it might seem a downgrade the upgrade was mostly superficially over ramped from what was likely to occur so perhaps the downgrade isn't as big as some might believe and should come as no surprise as all the best charts were from outside the reliable 5 days range. I still think there will be some eye candy for some to salivate over on the remaining runs tonight but I for one, even if they show good synoptics will not be dusting off any snow shovel yet. It is too early in the season at least in the South. Sea temperatures are too high still and the ground has still got a lot of warmth left in it after a mild Autumn. Wait a month and see these synoptics then I will get more excited.

Top post

[Captain Shortwave]

850hpa temps are unknown for this chart but I think some places could see some hefty snow showers if this occurs...

We await the fax charts later!!!   It would also be interesting to see if any modifications are applied to them...

There would probably be a front wrapped around that, western England and Wales look good here, Eastern areas would probably have to wait for showers behind the front to provide snowfall due to being in the warmer core of the low. So simply put, your location might well be white whilst mine is rather wet (at this time).

The cold pooling and subsequent 850s should be better than on the GFS from the resulting north easterly

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Snowman.]

Great, now we all have the ECM to wait for.

 

[The Northern Ramper]

Exeter seem to think it could produce significant accumulations and not just to higher ground...

UKMO is sending energy further north too.

 

That's going under.

[MR EXTREMES]

I like the gfs better and I don't like that run either.

without question gibby is on the money I might even come back and watch in December other than this does not in my mind even come close to what was showing lastnight I strongly believe its really just another flash in the pan.

 

but was exciting at first and teleconnections and a very angry pv  is not going to let this evolve well rant over expect very much to see the ecm side with the mighty ukmo the only model that's worth its weight in gold cant go wrong out to t144 and its the model that's likely to have taken the lead against the others dropping the dickens idea for a more realistic output.

 

but Scotland and hills in wales and northern England enjoy whilst it last.

[Bristawl Si]

 I honestly have no idea how this run has changed everything.

it's computer generated model output that's why. Simple really; plus add into the mix a 4-a-day churn out of this stuff and it's bound to be inconsistent run to run.