Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Yarmy]

Control run more like a national emergency run in FI. That's like an Atlantic storm with Arctic origins. I wonder if we'll actually see anything like that in our lifetimes.

Yeah, polar low although I guess someone will tell me that's the wrong definition like Indian Summer, etc. :-) Anyway, GFS has gone from the party pooper a day or 2 ago to ramper nonpareil, so I suppose the actual outcome will be somewhat less extreme, but notable nonetheless. Good for a laugh though.

[lorenzo]

LOL ! Wonder what this actually ended up at !!

 

[Deep Snow please]

That GFS run is what I dream about. Please let it be.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Ok. So Iv just got back from the pub , I hadn't had a look at the 18z but I knew it was good when my brother sent me a message (lives in northwest brum) saying when we go up next wkend on the 23rd we may going sledging rather than bowling ! So I got home m grabed a beer and had a look, yes it's amazing , the control run is yet again very unusually snowy and very cold , and I feel next week we will see rather more snow than was first thought in the areas further south !!!

Only seven hours to go until another round in the mad house !!

[BlueHedgehog074]

I'm amazed nobody has said boom today so let me be the first...BOOM :-) its been another day of upgrades for the cold and snow potential next week, I hope the feel good factor carries on with the 00z runs.

With the way the various models are going with the cold potential (with the chance of that high ridging favorably to turn those cold North-Westerly/Northerly flows early next week into North-Easterly/Easterly flows), it's certainly looking more and more likely many cold and snow fans will be on-board that Polar Express train next week. Edited November 14, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[Frosty.]

Amazing transformation with the GEFS control run, in recent days its been benign and anticyclonic and now its gone to the other extreme, loving this model output, following the mild november outlook a while back, where we are now with the current outlook feels like a miracle has happened.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Amazing transformation with the GEFS control run, in recent days its been benign and anticyclonic and now its gone to the other extreme, loving this model output, following the mild november outlook a while back, where we are now with the current outlook feels like a miracle has happened.

Couldn't agree more frosty , there was so much negativity in hear 3 wks ago , and this only proves that in reality , knowbody knows what's round the corner , I read an article last month from the states , warning there was a possible early strat warming on the agenda that will give us a bitter final third of November , I know that hasn't happened , but there has wave activity into the strat recently along with a much underestimated pacific high , which in turn has amplified the pattern to an extent know one saw coming , we are looking at a wintry period of weather dominated by low pressure to our south east , and high pressure to the north , that spells cold and snow going into December , a disturbed vortex will lead to high pressure taking hold in the polar regions , and with warm air pumped into the poles that will encourage more troposphere led wave breaking , so what we have is a fascinating period coming up where the professionals on hear can learn so much from an area where in reality is in very , very early days scientifically speaking . The infamous stratosphere thread.

[The Northern Ramper]

I wonder if Glacier Point saw this coming?

There have been times in recent years when through him we knew things were brewing when everything pointed against.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just seen the 00z GFS...Jesus H Christ!!!!! 

 

BFTP........oh I just woke up

[Joe Levy]

I thought I might have a crack at being the first to comment on the 0z gfs output at this ungodly hour (essay writing for my degree...). Considering how close we are to the actual beginning of this cold snap/spell, it seems remarkable how different the 0z is to the 18z. Firstly, as is noticeable in this chart for 144 hours, the very cold uppers never make it very far south and as a consequence wintry precipitation would be very marginal. I am personally not convinced by gfs at the moment. One moment it throws out a very cold and snowy run, the next it throws out a quite cold and wet run. Be careful about being too excited but also be careful about being cynical! This period of model watching is showing how small differences can exaggerate consequences in our weather the further into the future you go! I shall reserve my judgment for the exact nature of this cold weather until it enters the 72 hour period.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=187&y=176

 

Rather annoyingly, in the crucial time period for cold weather, the spread of the ens treads precisely that fine line that can make the difference between snow and rain. These are for Exeter by the way, since that's where I live but also in the South West where gfs has been indecisive about precipitation. Some of the ensembles on -6 850hpa would be more likely to produce snow, but one or two are at around -2. These are in the minority but in any case it will be a case of looking out the window next Tuesday and Wednesday, not staring at the ens as I am now!

Edited November 15, 2013 by Joe Levy

[shaky]

And bingo!!!!!!!we now have ukmo on board!!and the gfs is just crap all the way through no point even lookimg at it.

[West is Best]

The GFS is hardly 'crap!' it's another extremely cold run that you'd have bitten someone's hand off for a week or two back. It just isn't 'quite' as much eye candy as the 18z last night. It's still another stonking cold run with a bitter northerly followed by an easterly, and with ridging high pressure to the north/north-west it is also full of potential for cold extension.

 

It's very similar to the 12z ECMWF up to T168 and you can see how both my then transit to the ECM Siberian high.

 

So massive potential for an extended and bitterly cold spell.

[Radiating Dendrite]

GFS is not as good as the last few runs, but that is just intra run variability.

UKMO is better though! Let's see what Daddy (ECM) thinks of it all.

[shaky]

Ecm not looking good so far.shortwave goin north.really frustrating this is now.

[Beaufort12]

Is that the dreaded Azores High I see destroying my life right about now?

[Joe Levy]

So now at 144 we have three different solutions... but ukmo and gfs are a lot closer to each other

[The Eagle]

ECM having none of it. Quite a decisive back track. Ensembles will be important.

[radiohead]

We seem to be moving back to a shorter and less cold spell on the models this morning. GFS, GEM and ECM all show 850 temps not quite as cold as previously and not lasting as long. On the ECM we are also seeing more energy going over the top of the high, preventing the type of northward extension of heights that we were seeing yesterday.

 

12Z runs wlll be interesting to see how things progress.

Edited November 15, 2013 by radiohead

[SomeLikeItHot]

ECM at 192 rapid reload?

 

For a moment at 168  I was thinking it was getting worse.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM having none of it. Quite a decisive back track. Ensembles will be important.

 

Yeah, just awful........ p.s yep I'm being sarcastic

 

Edited November 15, 2013 by CreweCold

[Joe Levy]

If I was going to create a chart that had as many different types of weather as possible this would certainly be a candidate! There are sliders, a strange high clinging to the coast of South East Greenland, a northerly from a section of the pv and the western edge of a Russian high. All we need is a hurricane and this map would be complete...

[alexisj9]

261 = another northerly. It reloaded very quick. Looks to me like the next frame will unite the high over iceland and the scandi high.

Edited November 15, 2013 by alexisj9

[radiohead]

ECM with a second bite at the cold cherry in FI. Though it seems FI has been shortened to about 96-120 hours at the moment.

 

[shaky]

Actually take my comment back!!ecm is kinda good!!we keep colder uppers than the gfs practically all the way through!!so I would say ukmo is the best at 144 hours followed by gfs and then ecm.

[Mr Frost]

I think some folk are half asleep in here and believe they live in Finland...

These charts are fantastic for the UK in Autumn (seems a few on here are forgetting it is November) if it is cold weather you like - rain, sleet, snow, frost, biting wind.

I must be half asleep also as I can't seem to get these charts to post in date order!

Edited November 15, 2013 by Mr Frost