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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Back to the ECM which hasn't gone haywire and we can see the 2 coldest days UK wide are the 20th and 21st

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

After this we see the uppers slowly easing but remaining chilly with overnight frosts and fog devolving

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

Back to the ECM which hasn't gone haywire and we can see the 2 coldest days UK wide are the 20th and 21st

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

After this we see the uppers slowly easing but remaining chilly with overnight frosts and fog devolving

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

The last few frames of that ECMWF would be cyclonic and wet, not dry and frosty and foggy. It looks like an October 13th repeat pattern, but 5-7C colder. Could potentially be hideous for low lying areas!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

The last few frames of that ECMWF would be cyclonic and wet, not dry and frosty and foggy. It looks like an October 13th repeat pattern, but 5-7C colder. Could potentially be hideous for low lying areas!

 

thankfully it's FI, I live in the south low level,

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

thankfully it's FI, I live in the south low level,

 

Likewise. The October 13th pattern stuck out as a potentially snowy synoptic if it happened in winter. Now this EC run, beyond reliable range, would be occurring in late autumn, and it would perhaps be the wrong side of marginal. Nonetheless, were it to occur it would be a proper "forecasting nightmare" with the fine detail (only reliable at short range) determining who would get snow and who would be in very cold rain!

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Well that was interesting viewing lol.Just caught up and approached the medicine cabinet 12 times while alternating with cleaning the windows and promising the kids the earth equally!.You lot are drama queens............Keep it up lol.Sorry mods.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

An interesting 12z NAEFS run, keeping positive anomalies to our NW right out to 300+ hours;

post-12721-0-48271800-1384458159_thumb.jpost-12721-0-44646400-1384458166_thumb.jpost-12721-0-23573800-1384458174_thumb.j

Of course, what airmass we get is unclear at such a range, but the London suite suggest nothing warmer than chilly at best for the foreseeable;

post-12721-0-57784700-1384458233_thumb.j

To add, pretty good agreement here;

post-12721-0-23033300-1384458428_thumb.j

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

With temps probably 5-8c below the seasonal average I think the 20-21st could probably be called very cold, but at the moment that looks about it for values of that order. The following few days after the 21st would see the cold steadily mixing out, but even so temps look set to remain below average. As for snowfall, it looks to me as if some of the white stuff will be possible almost anywhere during the coldest 48hrs or so, especially overnight or where ppt becomes heavy, but again after the 21st I think any snow will become increasingly confined to high ground. Worth remembering that its still only Nov, so this might only be a taster of what Winter has in store, then again it might prove to be our Winter...albeit still in official Autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

well looking deep in to fantasy world  get  the  huskies  ready!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Cold.
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock

With temps probably 5-8c below the seasonal average I think the 20-21st could probably be called very cold, but at the moment that looks about it for values of that order. The following few days after the 21st would see the cold steadily mixing out, but even so temps look set to remain below average. As for snowfall, it looks to me as if some of the white stuff will be possible almost anywhere during the coldest 48hrs or so, especially overnight or where ppt becomes heavy, but again after the 21st I think any snow will become increasingly confined to high ground. Worth remembering that its still only Nov, so this might only be a taster of what Winter has in store, then again it might prove to be our Winter...albeit still in official Autumn.

Fair comment. But after reading and following the models over the past few days it's always been a cold spell around the 20th for a few days. Nothing of major note for us south of the midlands (snow wise) but to the north of that, there could and most probably be snow. I for one can't wait to feel the cold air hitting me. Not expecting snow, but some harsh frost will be great. I'm sure this won't be our winter....
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

To be fair I don't think anyone could have called the bulk of the high sinking towards South Russia and then a tiny part of the High cutting off and going on a 1 man crusade against the vortex Posted Image  It just highlights the uncertainty in the models and I'd like to point out again that I don't think we will see such an intact vortex in 8 days time like the ECM is showing.

Just to address this quickly, the high looks perfectly fine, I've seen weaker heights able to deflect the jet southwards and bring in cold

Like January this year

Posted Image

Polar vortex was stronger there too.

This spell also could add a little bit to forecaster's observations with the ECM

Posted Image

The low over France moved northwards up the eastern side of the UK and dumped 4 inches of snow here (6 inches plus inland). So I guess it is plausible that it could happen here. Though again the heights are stronger on the output tonight.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aye, I think a cold snap is all but guaranteed. So, what happens next?

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Steady as she goes from the ECM with rare looking charts at 216 & 240A very long sausage at 240 ..... A full on retrograde would be 48 hours past that....Onto the 00z to rectify the UKMO and maybe some kelly brook type eye candy on the 18z crazy runS

 

 

Breasts out or breasts up Steve ? If the easterly comes off the formation is rather than different than 2010, and rather than a flood of cold uppers from the E/NE, it's a set-up that just sends the air from the East our way, which isn't that cold and would soon be running on empty after an initial burst. That could change a little bit nearer the time, but the reality of it, cold and raw but perhaps not cold enough should be realised rather than the eye candy of the Meteociel charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Breasts out or breasts up Steve ? If the easterly comes off the formation is rather than different than 2010, and rather than a flood of cold uppers from the E/NE, it's a set-up that just sends the air from the East our way, which isn't that cold and would soon be running on empty after an initial burst. That could change a little bit nearer the time, but the reality of it, cold and raw but perhaps not cold enough should be realised rather than the eye candy of the Meteociel charts.

Indeed Ian...We are in danger of losing touch with reality, here? A couple of days' sleet/wet snow in November is hardly that uncommon...

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Breasts out or breasts up Steve ? If the easterly comes off the formation is rather than different than 2010, and rather than a flood of cold uppers from the E/NE, it's a set-up that just sends the air from the East our way, which isn't that cold and would soon be running on empty after an initial burst. That could change a little bit nearer the time, but the reality of it, cold and raw but perhaps not cold enough should be realised rather than the eye candy of the Meteociel charts.

Absolutely agree. We need some colder air to drop into Europe otherwise it will be a pointless setup, the sypnotics here are pretty rare but they are occurring too early for me to be excited, exciting sypnotics but will be pretty sad if we get a rare setup like this but don't get the spoils from it.
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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Steady as she goes from the ECM with rare looking charts at 216 & 240

A very long sausage at 240 ..... A full on retrograde would be 48 hours past that....

Onto the 00z to rectify the UKMO and maybe some kelly brook type eye candy on the 18z crazy run

S

 

I didn't think the day would come where I searched the internet for.....very long sausages!  Posted Image

 

So then - The 12z overall.

 

GFS - Very good, probably too good and unrealistically so. Cold and snowy, most of the way through.

UKMO - Probably the weakest of the models if it's cold you after this evening. The cold never really 'gets in'

ECM - Steady as she goes, probably a middle ground between the two of the above. 

 

 

I'd say right now - we are looking at a colder week next week, with a cold peak Tuesday/Wednesday. Potentially some snow around, but how much and whether it's down to low levels aren't defined at this stage. Colder uppers mixed out from Wednesday as things stay chilly at the surface but predominantly wet and not white. All eyes to a potential reload at that point heading into the week after! 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

An interesting 12z NAEFS run, keeping positive anomalies to our NW right out to 300+ hours;

Posted Imageimage.jpgPosted Imageimage.jpgPosted Imageimage.jpg

Of course, what airmass we get is unclear at such a range, but the London suite suggest nothing warmer than chilly at best for the foreseeable;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

To add, pretty good agreement here;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

I note on all those charts that there is a slight lessening in the anomalies to our north between two slightly stronger anomalies. That's where I'm looking to see if a shortwave can break through from the north which might bring the cold from the arctic with it. Although none of the operationals show it, it's definitely an option - how many times in the past have we seen shortwaves being picked up within T168 which pop through weaknesses in a block?

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Ian the ECM at 240 isnt bitter at the surface as you well know

It would be 288 2 days later where the retrograde to greenland would reshape the flow

The only question would be where the trough started to dig back through scandi

The gfs control was perfect and went all tootifruity on us in FI

S

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Breasts out or breasts up Steve ? If the easterly comes off the formation is rather than different than 2010, and rather than a flood of cold uppers from the E/NE, it's a set-up that just sends the air from the East our way, which isn't that cold and would soon be running on empty after an initial burst. That could change a little bit nearer the time, but the reality of it, cold and raw but perhaps not cold enough should be realised rather than the eye candy of the Meteociel charts.

I disagree Ian we are talking +240 and beyond so there's plenty of time for the European landmass to cool down significantly.

 

Edit; SM beat me to it.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

That's not a bad ensemble mean to be looking at in 5 days time:

Posted Image

Posted Image

Quite a spread of solutions thereafter which is reflected in quite a 'fuzzy' mean but the key is that the Italian trough remains which gives us a shot a reload further down the line:

Posted Image

The greatest spread over higher latitudes from southeast Greenland round to Novaya Zemlya is also a promising sign:

Posted Image

that is an amazing ecm mean at 240 hours!!it clearly shows a split flow right down the centre!!
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Just to wet the appetite for the 18z

 

Manchester

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=245&y=44

 

 

snow chances have steadily increased on the 19th from just 10% to 65% through the last couple of days or so and the 850 mean has slowly got colder and the cold has slowly stretched out.

 

And just for fun a similar run to the control.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Only eye candy for now but who knows?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I disagree Ian we are talking +240 and beyond so there's plenty of time for the European landmass to cool down significantly.

 

Edit; SM beat me to it.

And that much hoped-for 'cooldown' is predicted?

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