Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Tim Bland]

If only the air was colder...

 

Some -8c uppers to the east side of that low...what if it ended up 300 miles further west

[bluearmy]

pretty good agreement gfs/gem/ecm at day 9. not often you can say that.  as soon as the arctic feed was cut, the SST's together with the not cold continent has modified those uppers very quickly. need a trough to drop into the block to refresh the cold. either that or a retrogression.  not fussed which way it goes.

[Man With Beard]

ECM T192 will do nicely for now, beyond that it's too far out to believe in. In fact it's already very wintry without seeing what happens next.

[cooling climate]

Toppling highs that are not toppling, runs that are wrong

because they are not showing what some want to happen. Oh yes

the crazy season is certainly upon us now.

Quite happy to see the models going for a continental easterly

type flow after the initial plunge so to speak from the north

which I mentioned looked like happening a couple of days ago.

All of this down to the ridging and input of heat flux from

the Pacific side to allow enough amplitude for the feedback

mechanisms to take hold ie Wave 2 Atlantic ridge then more

amplitude from the pacific side again.

Still happy with my very early call for a severe winter for

Europe and the UK.

Edited November 14, 2013 by cooling climate

[Jonan92]

Atlantic lows coming

 

[Paul_1978]

Nick Miller just tweeted:

"@WeatherNick: Colder next week - yes. Anything vastly unusual from the first proper cold blast that can often come in November - no."

[swfc]

Id bet diamonds if the real deal 850s were in place that low woudnt be anywhere near where its shown on the 240hrs ecm.Still its a big improvement and hopefully the cold uppers will improve 

[swfc]

Atlantic lows coming

 

They moved up from south east!!!!

[MR EXTREMES]

I don't think anyone has clocked on to what snowy l said and he see it before the model run finished.

good call snowy l it has indeed been sucked over towards Russia.

 

it all looks rather messy later on the ecm but frosty your cold spell is game on...

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

If you look closely at day 10, the western periphery of the high is actually eroding the PV N of Iceland. It's a decent frame.

[nick sussex]

A lot of concern in here for the UKMO which IMO is better than this mornings run and you can see a shortwave forming to the sw about to cut se, with low heights over central/southern Europe you would end up with some high pressure to the north at 168hrs. Overall a good evening for coldies, I know I must sound like a broken record but as long as the upstream pattern remains sufficiently amplified then you will get the undercut. I suppose the concern barring what on face value are good synoptics is the depth of cold available, but this may well change in future runs.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I don't think anyone has clocked on to what snowy l said and he see it before the model run finished.

good call snowy l it has indeed been sucked over towards Russia.

 

it all looks rather messy later on the ecm but frosty your cold spell is game on...

 

 

Go on Meteociel and run the frames from 216 to 240. You'll see heights are infact spreading NW into SE Greenland

 

Always amazes me how so many people analyse the NWP in such a wrong fashion.

Edited November 14, 2013 by CreweCold

[Purga]

I don't think anyone has clocked on to what snowy l said and he see it before the model run finished.

good call snowy l it has indeed been sucked over towards Russia.

 

it all looks rather messy later on the ecm but frosty your cold spell is game on...

 

Cold yes but not snowy.

[MR EXTREMES]

and them lows out in fi hopefull with carry on tracking se the drawing higher heights back from the east bit touch and go though.

 

still not cold enough to our east but someone said 2010 and that's what happen with the lows back then and look what happened then.

but theres most certainly 4 or 5 days of winter early so not bad be ready for more highs and lows lol excuse the pun

 

my bad sorry cold crew that teach me for not paying attention

Edited November 14, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[ukpaul]

I don't think anyone has clocked on to what snowy l said and he see it before the model run finished.

good call snowy l it has indeed been sucked over towards Russia.

 

it all looks rather messy later on the ecm but frosty your cold spell is game on...

 

I thought they claimed that the high would sink (which it doesn't, look at how it's eating into Greenland at 240). If they meant the PV would sink into Northern Russia then that would be a good call.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

my bad sorry cold crew that teach me for not paying attention

 

Nothing to be sorry for. It sometimes happens when you look at various frames in isolation rather than looking at the overall progression

[Summer Sun]

Anyone fancy a record breaking heatwave?

 

 

I haven't rigged it, honest

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Snowy L]

I thought they claimed that the high would sink (which it doesn't, look at how it's eating into Greenland at 240). If they meant the PV would sink into Northern Russia then that would be a good call.

 

To be fair I don't think anyone could have called the bulk of the high sinking towards South Russia and then a tiny part of the High cutting off and going on a 1 man crusade against the vortex   It just highlights the uncertainty in the models and I'd like to point out again that I don't think we will see such an intact vortex in 8 days time like the ECM is showing.

[forecaster]

The ECMWF det looks strange, would not say "wrong" obviously, but the behaviour of the 500hPa low to the south is very "specific" and has ramifications on where the high goes. I would not bank on the low behaving in that precise manner nearer to the time. 

[Snowman.]

Anyone fancy a record breaking heatwave?

 

 

What model is that?

 

Being a good sport though.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Looks to me as if the Icelandic high has gone running to his dad (the siberian monster high), before he attempts to take on the Polat Vortex. 

IIs he correct and will the combined force fight back to take Greenland as their own?

The next part in the epic serial will be resumed tomorrow morning.!

Meantime will the pub run backtrack from his lunchtime special?

MIA

[Summer Sun]

What model is that?

 

Being a good sport though.

 

ECM on wetterzentrale, t120 and t168

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

 

EDIT 19:34

 

They have now fixed the issue so its no longer showing the pictures above are pre saved so they wouldn't change

Edited November 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

The ECMWF det looks strange, would not say "wrong" obviously, but the behaviour of the 500hPa low to the south is very "specific" and has ramifications on where the high goes. I would not bank on the low behaving in that precise manner nearer to the time. 

 

apart from yesterday's 12z run, the last few frames of most recent ecm ops have looked strange in their evolution.

[ANYWEATHER]

A quick glance from ecm and gfs looks to me that the ecm as chased the gfs  "BABY,ITS COLD OUTSIDE"

Edited November 14, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[The Northern Ramper]

I think everyone needs to relax a little and perhaps wait until the run has actually come out before making presumptions.

And remember that it's still ONLY November. Another 3 months worth of this yet!!!

Four months if last year is to go off.