Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[UV-RAY]

Guys your all mad. Why not watch the model come out and then comment ?? Instead of panicking thinking one thing only to back track on the next frame?Enjoy the charts by all means but just relax a bit before you give yourselves a heart attack !!#madhouse#rollercoaster!!!

It's fun watching all the emotive outburst though.

[Geordiesnow]

Although I have not had the time to look at the models recently, from viewing them yesterday to now, there is not an awful lot of differences in my eyes. Of course some on here will get all tetchy about the details but it does look like there will be some sort of attempt at an Atlantic ridge which will allow some cold air to head towards us. Obviously people want snowfall but tonights ECM looks really good for some significantly frosty weather, something which has not occurred too often this Autumn. 

 

As per usual, some nail biting but exciting few days model watching and see how long this cold shot will indeed last into next week. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Where is mr steve murr??somebody get in touch with him.tell him the ecm has just become friends with the gfs.lol!!

 

Pumping some iron at the gym apparently.

[Frosty.]

Some folk on here will be confused by the conflicting commentary, one says good, other says poor, it's even worse not being able to access the charts right now, will someone please tell me if it's looking wintry next week :-)

[Snowstorm1]

Pumping some iron at the gym apparently.

Pumping up that high!

[bluearmy]

Boom.

 

Cut Off.gif

 

Cut off high. Polar Vortex shredded.

 

not shredded yet daniel. hopefully in a few frames it will look like it will take some time to put humpty back together again but its not yet 'shredded' at day 7.

[Ian Brown]

Where is mr steve murr??somebody get in touch with him.tell him the ecm has just become friends with the gfs.lol!!

He has gone to the gym. No point in looking further than T168 other than just for fun because the key factors are T120-T144 and just throwing a little bit more energy further North would have made day 7 look very different. 

[shaky]

Some folk on here will be confused by the conflicting commentary, one says good, other says poor, it's even worse not being able to access the charts right now, will someone please tell me if it's looking wintry next week :-)

frosty it is looking wintry next week simple as and very cold aswell 8f we go according to the ecm.the 850 hpa temps have upgraded aswell!

[bluearmy]

Some folk on here will be confused by the conflicting commentary, one says good, other says poor, it's even worse not being able to access the charts right now, will someone please tell me if it's looking wintry next week :-)

 

it looks like a stronger version of the ens mean karl (no sh#t sherlock)

[swfc]

Some folk on here will be confused by the conflicting commentary, one says good, other says poor, it's even worse not being able to access the charts right now, will someone please tell me if it's looking wintry next week :-)

Ita a toppler frosty on ecm,cold one tho!!!  Sorry big improvement on ecm from this morning with the high hopefully heading towards iceland.Its now a scandi hi and easterly mate

Edited November 14, 2013 by swfc

[Mucka]

 

That really is quite a nice chart. Should be some snow showers around and the chunk of PV being isolated South should develop into an LP over Europe and prop up our high. We just need to see some WAA being driven up toward Greenland in the next couple of frames for a chance at some prolonged deep cold.

[Met4Cast]

WAA into Greenland is pretty incredible at 192

 

 

I expect we'll see retrogression on the next couple of charts, UKMO all on it's own.

[Cheshire Freeze]

192....there ya go......

 

 

Last couple of frames could be very VERY nice indeed.....

[Snowy L]

PV is still very much intact, the last 2 frames aren't going to be nice imo, I can see that high sinking.

[Cheshire Freeze]

PV is still very much intact, the last 2 frames aren't going to be nice imo, I can see that high sinking.

 

Sink to where exactly? There's nowhere it can feasibly sink to? Looks like going down the GFS route to me with a renewed attempt at a Greenland/Icelandic high as we get towards day 10.

[Joe Levy]

PV is still very much intact, the last 2 frames aren't going to be nice imo, I can see that high sinking.

 It's not that clear cut. It would struggle to sink easily given that the euro trough is still being fed by splinter lows (not sure of the technical term) that keep undercutting the high

[Snowy L]

Sink to where exactly? There's nowhere it can feasibly sink to? Looks like going down the GFS route to me with a renewed attempt at a Greenland/Icelandic high as we get towards day 10.

It's being drawn in by the Southern Russian high

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi all,

 

For any newbies or those who may simply be missing the details due to the frantic pace of postings in here, what is shown by the great many NWP outputs is still on target from where we were three (3) days ago, see the following comment. For simplification you should deduct 72 hours from the situation hinted at below.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Anyway moving forward, I am loving this cooler trend as it is seemingly becoming more apparent that something's up around the 18th November. Even at this range this output would be at t+168 hours so we still need to hold our horses. I personally think a change to something much drier is the most likely scenario in the short-term but whether a Northerly, Northwesterly or even an Easterly element sets up is all conjecture until the midweek output possibly confirms this likelihood. If anyone is looking for the finer details i.e IMBY, I think that's not a healthy pastime until that timeframe either. The trend is our friend as said in a previous post and trying to deduce the global picture of things (which I still struggle with  ) is the best way to go for anybody still trying to make sense of all things Meteorological. Until things get to t+72 or nearer, any precipitation events won't even be nailed. Look globally firstly, then regionally and finally locally come the most realistic timeframe i.e. less than t+24.   Just hoping this helps any newcomers, lurkers and those less knowledgeable than the top guys and gals in here.

 

As before, whichever output you look at, the reliable timeframe is approximately within the 114 to 120 hours boundary as also indicated by many other knowledgeable folk within this thread.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78461-model-output-discussion-131113/?p=2833785

 

The edge of FI (Fantasy Island) and beyond is where the fun and games could begin.

[forecaster]

PV is still very much intact, the last 2 frames aren't going to be nice imo, I can see that high sinking.

 

With the 500hPa low cut off to the south, the high is not going to sink. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's being drawn in by the Southern Russian high

 

The western periphery of the high in the Atlantic should tilt and enable some WAA at 216, let's see what happens. I think sinking is the least likely option on this run but then again I've seen stranger things happen!

[Purga]

WAA into Greenland is pretty incredible at 192

 

WAA 2.gif

 

I expect we'll see retrogression on the next couple of charts, UKMO all on it's own.

Although the Arctic feed is cut off the next ECM chart looks OK

 

Would probably only be cold and damp at this time of year rather than snowy

[radiohead]

If only the air was colder...

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23rd looking horrid on both models on 12Z's, still FI so no concern yet, but flood risk for England

[Snowy L]

The western periphery of the high in the Atlantic should tilt and enable some WAA at 216, let's see what happens. I think sinking is the least likely option on this run but then again I've seen stranger things happen!

I should add though that I don't buy this run at all. There is no way the vortex will be that much intact in 10 days time. We will see gaps appear which will aid our high pressure to stay to our North, unlike the end of todays 12z run.

[Mucka]

 

Low pressure developing a little further North over the channel than ideal but we need that to prop up the high.

The 192 chart was really in the balance as far as energy distribution was concerned on the Western flank of the mid Atlantic block, a little more energy going south at that point and the cold would of been locked in I reckon. Still, these are hurdles we may never get to so probably better to concentrate on the 120, 144 charts for now