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2013 one of warmest on record

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This year is likely to be among the top 10 warmest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. It continues a pattern of high temperatures blamed directly on man-made climate change.

The president of the World Bank, Kim Yong Kim, told BBC News that warming could no longer be ignored. He urged action to reduce emissions to minimise the likelihood of disasters like Typhoon Haiyan, which has claimed thousands of lives in the Philippines. The WMO's head, Michel Jarraud, echoed his call: “The Philippines is reeling from Typhoon Haiyan... and is still struggling to recover from a typhoon one year ago.

"Although individual tropical cyclones cannot be directly attributed to climate change, higher sea levels are already making coastal populations more vulnerable to storm surges." The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says the jury is out on whether the frequency of tropical cyclones will increase, but Michel Jarraud said it was expected that the impact of storms would be more intense.

 

Of the broad pattern, he said: “All of the warmest years have been since 1998, and this year once again continues the underlying, long-term trend. The coldest years now are warmer than the hottest years before 1998. "Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases reached new highs in 2012, and we expect them to reach unprecedented levels yet again in 2013. This means that we are committed to a warmer future. "Surface temperatures are only part of the wider picture of our changing climate. The impact on our water cycle is already becoming apparent - as manifested by droughts, floods and extreme precipitation." Today’s statement is provisional, pending weather patterns to the end of the year, but it confirms that global sea level reached a new record high. Mr Kim said the overall trend was clear. He urged governments to end subsidies for fossil fuels and give people clean energy sources.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24925580

 

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For the uk or worldwide?

 

Worldwide I think as it mentions Australia's record breaking 12 month spell

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Just a part of the natural variation of the earth's climate, be hearing of global cooling by later in the century.

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Just a part of the natural variation of the earth's climate, be hearing of global cooling by later in the century.

2010 was the warmest globally since the late 1800`s,and that's when we had the coldest winter for 2 decades,then we had last winter and extreme cold/snow during spring,they say warmest so why am I expecting more cold.Posted Image

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This year is likely to be among the top 10 warmest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

 

 

 

Realistically how long have we been able to accurately measure World temperatures 20/30 years ?

 

Being the ‘10th’ warmest on record is well with what you would expect in world that’s shown no significant warming in the last 15 years.

 

There is some suggestion it could end up 12th warmest by year end but can’t seem to find the link.

 

Not that news worthy really

Edited by stewfox

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I know this is only your opinion stew but it sounds a bit damming? 

 

The series, as accepted by the WMO, runs back into the late 1800's so why do you set the bar so low when the purported 'experts' run with a much longer series?

 

In 10 or 15yrs time we'll probably have data that covers 100% of the global surface so will you then seek to bin the records from today? 

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I know this is only your opinion stew but it sounds a bit damming? The series, as accepted by the WMO, runs back into the late 1800's so why do you set the bar so low when the purported 'experts' run with a much longer series?In 10 or 15yrs time we'll probably have data that covers 100% of the global surface so will you then seek to bin the records from today?

Do you really think we had the abilty to meaure global temps accurately within 0.013c 150 years ago ?. Edited by stewfox

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Do you really think we had the abilty to meaure global temps accurately within 0.013c 150 years ago ?.

So temps 150 years ago could well have been a lot lower than we think?

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Do you really think we had the abilty to meaure global temps accurately within 0.013c 150 years ago ?.

 

Averaged? Yes.

 

If someone who's done years of study, who's job it is, works out something and presents it my reaction is not to just belittle it.

Edited by Devonian

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In 10 or 15yrs time we'll probably have data that covers 100% of the global surface so will you then seek to bin the records from today? 

 

If their found to be factually inaccurate of course (unlikely I know).

 

Some old station records have tended to over do temps as urban conurbations grew up around them.

 

We can make approximation around global weather in the past and it sounds 'better' coldest 'on record' coldest in '150 yrs' then 12th warmest in 30 yrs

 

Although lets not pretend we have a accurate data from 1863.

 

Francis Galton always a good read from that period

 

http://galton.org/books/meteorographica/index.htm

 

 

Anyway lets wait to the end of the year before we 'call'  2013

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Averaged? Yes

 

Not averaged, no.

 

When doing any computation one must round to the value used in the computation that has the least number of significant figures. So, if we have two thermometers that measured 12.1degC and 18.678 degC you add them together 12.1 + 18.678 = 30.78, rounded to three significant digits, which is 30.8.

 

The essential rule is the final result cannot have more significant digits than the least well known value in the computation.

 

Even in modern thermometer calibration, (using British Standards) the uncertainty can be as much as +/-0.05degC which, rounded, implies one tenth of accuracy - ie one decimal digit.It's highly likely that back in the 1880's the uncertainty would have been as much as +/- 1degC with all that entails.

 

Any time-series that is known not to be homogenous (most temperature series are) should have the error bounds shown. These are published along with climate temperature series. Here's HadCrut4,

 

post-5986-0-57566200-1385024624_thumb.pn

 

And, as you can see, the 95% uncertainty (which is what is represented here) falls away until the present day

 

post-5986-0-45916900-1385024637_thumb.pn

 

Did you expect a modern day uncertainty of +/- 0.1degC?

 

How much do we think 2013 will be a record breaker by?

Edited by Sparkicle

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Anyway , we digress. With the remainder of the year having the southern hemisphere in it's seasonal warming phase would the already warm conditions across Australia ( and surrounding oceans driving the warmth/forecast warmth) be enough to pump up temps or will it necessitate a reduction in cold plunges into the northern hemisphere from the Arctic ?

 

Seeing as we saw such a different summer across the arctic, compared to the past few years, should we expect less leakage? Will La Nada throw us a few curves?

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No - we do not digress - that one of the highest temperatures ever posted is likely deserves a bit of (mathematical) attention don't you think? Or, are you prepared just to grab the headline, and let fear do the rest? ie mislead people.

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I'm just a little surprised that it's this report that has suddenly prompted folk to discuss how 'accurate' past measures are and how long a series we should be using to compare our global temps?

 

Though I'm sure there are plenty of proxy measures that various disciplines could bring together to gain a 'global proxy' temp series ( right up to present) I'm sure that folk would prefer 'physically measured' temperatures?

 

Anyhow. would past years likely surpass this years temp or would they need downgrading?

 

As it is I'm sure we will have 'reconstructions' of past temps to entertain ourselves with soon enough but again i'd ask 'why now'?

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NOAA has currently has 2013 as seventh warmest for the January-October period. I've been trying to estimate how high up or how low down the rankings this year could end up but it's difficult to find data all quoted to the same degree of precision. Given that the overall averages for some years are the same to two decimal places, that can make things difficult!

 

I think this year could end up as high as fifth if the combined anomaly for November and December is greater than about 1.3C. In the other direction, 2006, 2009 and 2007 were only a few hundredths of a degree cooler than 2013 has been to date so we could also slip below those months if November and December are relatively cool compared to the last few months. According to NOAA,the monthly anomalies since the start of the year have been 0.54, 0.57. 0.58. 0.52, 0.66, 0.64, 0.61, 0.62, 0.64 and 0.63 (all relative to the 20th century average).

 

The November figure should be out within the next few days.

Edited by su rui ke

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The NOAA figures for November are out and the anomaly for November is a huge 0.78C. That makes it the warmest November in the series and by my reckoning the sixth warmest (relative to its own average) of any month in the series.

 

The anomaly for the year is now 0.62C. Another 0.62C in December would probably make 2013 the fifth warmest year on record. Something around 0.86C would be needed to put into third place.

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The NOAA figures for November are out and the anomaly for November is a huge 0.78C. That makes it the warmest November in the series and by my reckoning the sixth warmest (relative to its own average) of any month in the series.

 

The anomaly for the year is now 0.62C. Another 0.62C in December would probably make 2013 the fifth warmest year on record. Something around 0.86C would be needed to put into third place.

Funny that when most agree world temperatures are at a standstill.

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Funny that when most agree world temperatures are at a standstill.

And on what basis do we/they make such judgements - except based on data sets such as this?

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Funny that when most agree world temperatures are at a standstill.

The year will come in as warm (or cool) as it does, keith...Nature cares not a jot about what 'most agree'...

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Heat extremes dominated the year. The last four months of 2012 were abnormally hot in Australia but January 2013 was the hottest month ever measured on the continent, with record temperatures being set in every state and territory and the highest recorded maximum of 49.6C at Moomba in South Australia. Temperatures were regularly above 48C, the Bureau of Meteorology added a new temperature colour to its maps and Sydney experienced its hottest night on record when it was still 34C at midnight on 10 January. According to the since axed Australian Climate Commission, Australians should get used to it: not only are heatwaves getting longer, hotter and more frequent, the number of record hot days is expected to quadruple in Sydney by the end of the century.
 
Portugal, China, Hungary, Finland, and Britain, all recorded heatwaves, and the temperature in Death Valley, California hit 129.2F (54.0C), the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth during June. Meanwhile, Shanghai had 24 days with temperatures at or above 35C in July and recorded 40.6C, the highest ever temperature recorded in 140 years of records in the city. Northeast Brazil, which often suffers long droughts, experienced its worst in 50 years followed last week by massive floods.
 
Europe, overall, was warmer than usual but the heat turned quickly to massive rainstorms. As much rain fell in a few hours in June in central Europe as normally falls in two months. The Czech Republic , Austria, south and east Germany, Switzerland, Slovakia, Belarus, Poland, Hungary and Serbia all experienced heavy flooding in what were desribed as one in 100 year rains. In some places in Austria, 150 to 200mm of rain (5.9 to 7.9 inches) fell in a day.
 
Less high-profile were massive floods in Sudan, where more than 250,000 people were forced from their homes in August. The region around the capital, Khartoum, was particularly badly hit, with at least 15,000 homes destroyed and thousands of others damaged.
 
The heat was also seen in the oceans. The journal Sceince reported that since 1950 Pacific Ocean waters had been warming at a rate 15 times faster than the rest of the seafloor. This suggested to some that the ocean depths may store more heat from global warming than suspected. The Pacific Ocean, in particular, seems to be absorbing more heat than at any other time in the past 50 years.
 
Because the strength of tropical storms is linked to ocean temperature, it came as a surprise that the 2013 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season was one of the weakest recorded in 50 years. There were no major hurricanes in the Carribean, Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic basin and only Ingrid and Humberto out of the 13 named storms reached hurricane strength.
 
It was a very different story in the western-north Pacific however, where 30 major storms had been recorded by early November. Thirteen of them were typhoon-strength, the biggest by some way being typhoon Haiyan, possibly the most powerful tropical cyclone to make landfall in recorded history. Haiyan smashed into the southern Phillippines, killing 6,000 people and wreaking massive damage.
 
The World Meteorological Organisation said that it was impossible to blame climate change for individual storms but increasing evidence emerged during the year that there was a link. When in January 2013 scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the UK's Met Office, and the research teams from 16 other global institutions tried to calculate how much climate change had possibly influenced 12 extreme weather events that occurred in 2012, they concluded that it had helped raise the temperatures during the run of 37.7C days in last year's US heatwave, and was behind the record loss of Arctic sea ice and the storm surge of hurricane Sandy, plus several other extremes.
 
The weather year ended in a similar turmoil to how it had started – with hail falling in Cairo, snow in Israel, Syria and Jordan, and record high temperatures in Scandinavia and unseasonable heat on the Gulf Coast of the United States. *How cold is that? About 10C colder than anything ever recorded in Alaska or Siberia. The lowest temnperatures ever recorded in Britain was a relatively mild -27C in Scotland in 1982, and -23C in 1994 in Australia.

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/18/2013-extreme-weather-events

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I'm beginning to wonder if we have seen the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation flip to it's warm phase? For us to be seeing such elevated temps with us still ( allegedly) deep in PDO-ve and in El Nada across the ENSO region demands explanation.

 

Whilst reading about the ocean temps, and the 'Hiatus', the Interdecadal Oscillation filled in a few blanks as to how we could be seeing the changes we have over the past twelve months ( along with the Arctic impacts) esp. if it is shifting back to it's positive phase and allowing the ocean to now reject incoming heat instead of just seeing it subducted into the deep ocean? With the persistent high over the north Pacific we must be seeing some of the wind fields changed?

 

With the impacts of the 'warm phase' being held responsible for the last accelerated warming burst ( that some scientists wanted to call a 'climate shift'!) then any return to it's influence could relegate the PDO-ve to a minor 'regional' forcing and catapult us into another round of accelerated atmospheric warming.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/A-Looming-Climate-Shift-Will-Ocean-Heat-Come-Back-to-Haunt-us.html

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But, GW, you do not accept that the thermometer temperature record, because of the changes in the Arctic, are accurate.

Edited by Sparkicle

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Yes, yes Sparks and with great big wobbly knobs on too!?

 

If we focus on the areas that we can 'measure' temps with the accuracy we do then the switch from 'Cool driver dominance' to 'warm driver Dominance' will drive atmospheric temperature rates of change to those we last witnessed during the last warming surge. I feel sure that such a surge will further impact the Arctic regions and enable the 'temp surge' to far surpass the last surge...... I'm sure we will all wish to include that influence when explaining 'Why' we see temps surging ahead faster than ever before ( won't we) or will we try and make sense of what we witness without that input? 

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