little ice age ahead

[Gray-Wolf]

Though we do not see other periods of low /high solar acting in this way? The high solar of the last century showed peaks in levels when N.European winter temps hit record lows ( 63 and 46).

 

The other Elephant has to be the elevated GHG levels we now enjoy and their impacts across global temps?

[Midlands Ice Age]

Knocker,

Comparing the temps directly with the current status of the sun really is old hat now. (and incorrect it seems, so we are agreed!)

It seems as though it is the sun's overall net effect on land, oceans and atmosophere which apparently is found to cause a lag of 40 years (with a high degree of correlation) before the effect reaches global temperature, which is being touted around via recent papers. So we will have to wait develpoments to see.

However whether we do have a mini iceage coming up is dependent upon the forecast solar dips(sun), the future of the earth's crust (in terms of volcano's) (earth) versus the magical properties of a magical gas (air). Strikes me the Egyptions and Greeks knew something back 2500 years ago as they were all worshipped in those days in the form of sun, earth and water(atmosphere).

Which has precedence at any point of time is curently still not possible to forecast into the future.

As our knowledge increases we will be able to get the balance correct, but we are not there yet.

MIA

[knocker]

There's plenty of empirical evidence linking the LIA to solar activity so if the current projections of solar output continue then why not as it matters not what the starting point is now as December 2010 showed, the simple answer is that nobody knows what the future holds but there appears to be many who think they do.

 

As far as I'm aware there is still no great certainty regarding the cause of the LIA as stated above. No doubt solar activity played a role but not to the extent that accounts for all the cooling. This was a pretty stand out event in the Holocene and does not have a simple explanation, As GW says the elephant in the room now that wasn't around then is  GHG  forcing. So it's not good enough to just say current predictions of solar output justifies scientific forecasting of another LIA.

Edited December 1, 2014 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

I thought that 'ice ages' depended on the survival of ice over the warm months? Both the supression of temps around the ice and the albedo feedback's of high snow/ice cover help amplify the cool?

 

Over recent years we have seen record high N.Hemisphere snow cover but they are coupled with record melt data over the following spring? If, no matter the amount of snow winter brings, we see more and more 'new' open land cover in time for maximum summer heating then we will see local temps rise and so Global temps rise?

 

Just look around the Arctic to see what ice/snow loss has meant for local maximum temp records?

 

In the end we know more heat in the atmosphere allows it to carry more moisture so past 'cold deserts' see precipitation events and areas that are used to snow fall see higher totals from precipitation episodes. None of us know when global temps will be high enough to make 'snow areas' into 'rain areas ' over winter so I'm sure we will continue to see extreme snow events esp. if the atmosphere is trending toward more extreme circulation events driven by a more sinuous Polar Jet?

 

My concerns are not focused on the cost implications to the developed N.Hemisphere from 'cold plunges' but the impacts of warm air incursions over the areas that ought to be cold? The impacts on sea ice thickening and permafrost destabilisation are far more destructive to us all that a few inches of snow? 

[VillagePlank]

Knocker,

Comparing the temps directly with the current status of the sun really is old hat now. (and incorrect it seems, so we are agreed!)

It seems as though it is the sun's overall net effect on land, oceans and atmosophere which apparently is found to cause a lag of 40 years (with a high degree of correlation) before the effect reaches global temperature, which is being touted around via recent papers. So we will have to wait develpoments to see.

However whether we do have a mini iceage coming up is dependent upon the forecast solar dips(sun), the future of the earth's crust (in terms of volcano's) (earth) versus the magical properties of a magical gas (air). Strikes me the Egyptions and Greeks knew something back 2500 years ago as they were all worshipped in those days in the form of sun, earth and water(atmosphere).

Which has precedence at any point of time is curently still not possible to forecast into the future.

As our knowledge increases we will be able to get the balance correct, but we are not there yet.

MIA

 

Going back off topic, briefly.

 

A running 39year SSN average plotted again HadCrut4 since 1890 looks like this,

 

 

Which looks suspiciously like this,

 

 

And, indeed, it has a reasonable correlation of 0.644.

 

The logistic sigmoid is found all over nature: it's just one of those things. It is was original developed to study population insomuch that it contains the idea that once a population is saturated it is very difficult to add more population, and once a population is decimated it's very hard to increase it rapidly. It's derivative is also one of the key equations of chaos, and is often used as the defacto example.

 

There's lot of interest here, but maybe that's for another thread

Edited December 1, 2014 by Sparkicle

[Hocus Pocus]

Interesting read GW and I suppose until we see more favourably ice conditions return to the arctic then any talk of an LIA should be put on ice ( pardon the pun ) for now, having said that these things can happen quite dramatically so I guess it's a wait and see game. Time to exit this thread now though as I sense a debate on the aspects of for and against AGW coming on and I'm only interested in the possibilities of a LIA.

[VillagePlank]

Interesting read GW and I suppose until we see more favourably ice conditions return to the arctic then any talk of an LIA should be put on ice ( pardon the pun ) for now, having said that these things can happen quite dramatically so I guess it's a wait and see game. Time to exit this thread now though as I sense a debate on the aspects of for and against AGW coming on and I'm only interested in the possibilities of a LIA.

 

Here's the 39yr running average,

 

 

which kind of implies a SSN cycle. We're currently on the down-slope with, perhaps, 50ish years to go before we reach the bottom. If the LIA was driven by SSN, then that seems a reasonable forecast. The first part of that assertion is key, however.

Edited December 1, 2014 by Sparkicle

[VillagePlank]

Nobody seems to realize that the primary metric humanity uses to measure the global warming is irradiance. It is a 16th century methodology adapted to the 21st century.

 

Not only that: but a rather narrow band of irradiance. Other irradiance clearly has no effect

[gigabite]

ssn = sun spot number

had crut4 = what?

The likely hood of coronal mass ejection is 5 times more frequent during the solar max, so it can be inferred that as the ssn drops the effective size of the sun decreases.

Edited December 3, 2014 by gigabite

[VillagePlank]

ssn = sun spot number

had crut4 = what?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/

[Essan]

There's plenty of empirical evidence linking the LIA to solar activity

Really?   So what happened ~1350AD to cause the LIA?

We know the MM occurred during the LIA, and led to a period of even colder weather.  But I am not aware of how solar activity can affect the climate before it has happened?

So far as I am aware, all those predicting a new 'LIA' are actually predicting a new 'MM'.  That they ignorantly think they are the same thing just make me wonder what else they are ignorant of!

[Lauren]

The way I see it is, if it's going to happen (and consensus seems to be that it will at some point) there's noting anybody can do about it, so I guess the biggest thing would be making sure we have a good contingency plan for such an event.

[Gael_Force]

Really?   So what happened ~1350AD to cause the LIA?

We know the MM occurred during the LIA, and led to a period of even colder weather.  But I am not aware of how solar activity can affect the climate before it has happened?

So far as I am aware, all those predicting a new 'LIA' are actually predicting a new 'MM'.  That they ignorantly think they are the same thing just make me wonder what else they are ignorant of!

 

I'm not sure why the Maunder is the only event referenced: a series of named minimums with the MM being the deepest can account for the duration of the extended period of cooling. Add in some of the most active periods in Icelandic volcanic history to add to the overall effect.

 

[Essan]

I'm not sure why the Maunder is the only event referenced

 

Because its the best known and was the coldest period of the LIA  and therefore if we experience any solar minimum it will be at least as severe and OMG! The Thames Will Freeze Over And Everyone Will Die!

 

The reality is that global warming will probably mean even a solar minimum as extreme as the MM would have almost no effect at all ....

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

I'm not sure why the Maunder is the only event referenced: a series of named minimums with the MM being the deepest can account for the duration of the extended period of cooling. Add in some of the most active periods in Icelandic volcanic history to add to the overall effect.

 

GF (and Essan),

I assume the above graph is based upon sunspot numbers.

If so solar effect on the climate would only start to effect about 40 years later than the above date. Therefore from about 1400 the temperature would be slowly expected to decline. and as solar declined further during the following minimums so the temperature would be expected to drop further, until about 40 years after the MM we should expect the minimum temperatures. On this basis the coldest weather should have been about the late 1790's.

Not far of the mark, I would suggest.

On the same basis the effect of the recent solar lowerings are yet to take effect in terms of lowering temperatures and infact if the forcast lower solar forcings develop we could see lower temperatures ahead.

If this theory is correct (the 40year) then curently we should still be seeing some sort of diminishing warming effect. ls this what is happening??

Maybe the additional CO2 together with Lauren's proposals will be required.

Who knows? I think the answer is no-one (although some people want you to believe they do)

MIA

[knocker]

 

Who knows? I think the answer is no-one (although some people want you to believe they do)

MIA

 

Who might they be? I ask because I only know of those who believe they know what isn't happennig.

Edited December 3, 2014 by knocker

[Midlands Ice Age]

Knocker

I am not rising to the bait to spoil yet another interesting thread!!

MIA

[karyo]

I hope the little ice age hurries up a bit because...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30311816