South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 06/11/13 0000z ------------>

[snowphie]

AFAIK, the current upper air profile isn't conducive for snow to fall was what I was trying to state. Having said that, stranger things have happened in the past.

I understood that, I was hoping you could have looked to see what it was at around 8:30 as I assume it changes all the time? :-)

[TwisterGirl81]

Replace "will" with "might" and "freezing rain" with "largely dry and frosty" and you should be nearer the mark. Nonetheless next week looks fascinating given the date on the calendar and Tuesday and Wednesday is a long way off synoptic wise right now. Where we go from there may well be the pertinent question.  

 

Well yes I guess so nad hopefully this is a pattern that will keep emerging this winter so that it eventually will snow even in Costa Del Devon & Cornwall

[gottolovethisweather]

I understood that, I was hoping you could have looked to see what it was at around 8:30 as I assume it changes all the time? :-)

 

Sorry snowphie, things can't change much when the current situation is fairly static i.e. we are largely under the influence of High Pressure so any showers would have been light in nature. Having now looked at what the NMM suggested at the time, dewpoints should have been between 5c or 6c. Alongside this, the precipitation would have had to been very heavy and very much at elevation, although the Jamaica Inn is. According to the Snow Risk maps, above 2400 metres it would have potentially been all snow. I think that clarifies my assumption from earlier but then again, the weather every now and then goes against these basic elements. For the short answer, no snow, hail graupel which can look like snow, would have certainly been possible.

Well yes I guess so nad hopefully this is a pattern that will keep emerging this winter so that it eventually will snow even in Costa Del Devon & Cornwall

 

You lot deserve something that's for sure. You had your half decent Summer down there so perhaps Mr Climate can deliver a half decent wintry spell too.

Edited November 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[snowphie]

Sorry snowphie, things can't change much when the current situation is fairly static i.e. we are largely under the influence of High Pressure so any showers would have been light in nature. Having now looked at what the NMM suggested at the time, dewpoints should have been between 5c or 6c. Alongside this, the precipitation would have had to been very heavy and very much at elevation, although the Jamaica Inn is. According to the Snow Risk maps, above 2400 metres it would have potentially been all snow. I think that clarifies my assumption from earlier but then again, the weather every now and then goes against these basic elements. For the short answer, no snow, hail graupel which can look like snow, would have certainly been possible.You lot deserve something that's for sure. You had your half decent Summer down there so perhaps Mr Climate can delivered a half decent wintry spell too.

Oh I see, I didn't witness it myself so will assume it was the hail graupel you refer to :-( Edited November 15, 2013 by snowphie

[TwisterGirl81]

Sorry snowphie, things can't change much when the current situation is fairly static i.e. we are largely under the influence of High Pressure so any showers would have been light in nature. Having now looked at what the NMM suggested at the time, dewpoints should have been between 5c or 6c. Alongside this, the precipitation would have had to been very heavy and very much at elevation, although the Jamaica Inn is. According to the Snow Risk maps, above 2400 metres it would have potentially been all snow. I think that clarifies my assumption from earlier but then again, the weather every now and then goes against these basic elements. For the short answer, no snow, hail graupel which can look like snow, would have certainly been possible.

 

You lot deserve something that's for sure. You had your half decent Summer down there so perhaps Mr Climate can deliver a half decent wintry spell too.

 

 

Bless you, thankyou 'gottalovethisweather' well it would be nice and I am sure there are other places further North which rarely get a decent snowfall but any kind of wintry spell on the horizon always tends to be downgraded and turn to snow when it passes Devon!

 

Ah yes we can't complain this summer was beautiful and I know some places in the North didn't get as nice a summer as we did....I guess it is swings and roudabouts.....I think Canda has the perfect Climate....very warm and suny in the summer and wintry and cold in the winter!  We are only a little island I gess surrounded by water.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Maxed @ 9.1c. Didn't feel to bad in the sun.

[Beast of Plympton]

Bless you, thankyou 'gottalovethisweather' well it would be nice and I am sure there are other places further North which rarely get a decent snowfall but any kind of wintry spell on the horizon always tends to be downgraded and turn to snow when it passes Devon!

 

Ah yes we can't complain this summer was beautiful and I know some places in the North didn't get as nice a summer as we did....I guess it is swings and roudabouts.....I think Canda has the perfect Climate....very warm and suny in the summer and wintry and cold in the winter!  We are only a little island I gess surrounded by water.

 

We had a cracking summer down here (Not that I am a summer fan!). I remember in December 2010 when I had a Christmas do in Exeter and being very jealous of the amount of snow there, however, I did live in Plymouth at the time! I am fortunate enough to have huge elevation which is great for snow. But your location is certainly not immune to a good amount of snow. So, perhaps this is your winter.

 

Always remember, the southwest is the perfect location for an Atlantic low smashing into cold air. If that happens, we get plastered, and we are only in November so plenty of time for that to happen.

 

P.S - I noticed your location just says Devon now, earlier this year it said Exeter... if you don't live there anymore, ignore the above!

Edited November 15, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[caz100]

Hiya .... is back again, every year I pop back to watch the excitment of snow watch : let's hope this year cornwall sees a good flutter..

[Sainsbo]

It's already down to 2.8C out there at the moment, looks like it will be very chilly tonight for quite a lot of us.

[gottolovethisweather]

It's already down to 2.8C out there at the moment, looks like it will be very chilly tonight for quite a lot of us.

 

Blimey. Thanks for the heads up, I'm at 3.0c currently so will it at long last provide me with my first Air Frost since 28th April.

Edited November 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[festivalking]

The beast is happy... Its only a small drive up the hill for you!! I reckon with those temperatures and you being the higher side of Yelverton, you might see a bit....

 

Well the latest on MO we will be getting a period of snow on tuesday, which in turn has upgraded princetown to about 6 hours of snow. It will be gone tomorrow!!

[Guest William Grimsley]

Always remember, the southwest is the perfect location for an Atlantic low smashing into cold air. If that happens, we get plastered, and we are only in November so plenty of time for that to happen. 

That is good. But, then the milder air moves in shortly afterwards which in turn, melts the lying snow. I think, a perfect scenario would be a band of rain moving up from France with a strong E/NE wind and temperatures at or below 0°C. Then, the rain band just sits over S England for a whole day or night. Then, it moves back S into France and leaves us with still the cold air there was and a E/NE wind. Does that sound good?

Edited November 15, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Beast of Plympton]

Well the latest on MO we will be getting a period of snow on tuesday, which in turn has upgraded princetown to about 6 hours of snow. It will be gone tomorrow!!

 

I would say that it is going to chop and change a lot over the next few days, maybe even back off completely. However, I am taking comfort in the fact that the models even think there is a chance of snow so early in the season in the southwest, that has to be a positive thing!! You are on the moors now my friend, your snow will come!

Edited November 15, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Beast of Plympton]

 

 

That is good. But, then the milder air moves in shortly afterwards which in turn, melts the lying snow. I think, a perfect scenario would be a band of rain moving up from France with a strong E/NE wind and temperatures at or below 0°C. Then, the rain band just sits over S England for a whole day or night. Then, it moves back S into France and leaves us with still the cold air there was and a E/NE wind. Does that sound good?

 

 

Make it happen William!! That's the prefect scenario.... Lets hope that comes to fruition at some point over the winter!!

[Guest William Grimsley]

Make it happen William!! That's the prefect scenario.... Lets hope that comes to fruition at some point over the winter!!

I got something right? That makes a change. I hope it does happen, the 2012/2013 winter had no snow, the 2011/2012 winter had no snow. But, the 2010/2011 winter had a lot of snow. I want a repeat performance of the 2010/2011 winter.

Edited November 15, 2013 by William Grimsley

[festivalking]

I would say that it is going to chop and change a lot over the next few days, maybe even back off completely. However, I am taking comfort in the fact that the models even think there is a chance of snow so early in the season in the southwest, that has to be a positive thing!! You are on the moors now my friend, your snow will come!

 

Promises Promises 

[Beast of Plympton]

 

 

I got something right? That makes a change. I hope it does happen, the 2012/2013 winter had no snow, the 2011/2012 winter had no snow. But, the 2010/2011 winter had a lot of snow. I want a repeat performance of the 2010/2011 winter.

 

 

Well, I am no expert and we are fortunate to have people in our neck of the woods (AWD and GTLTW plus others) that know way more than I do. But a low that pushes up from the continent, dumps a load of snow, than leaves for the cold air to come over us and keep the snow there sounds pretty good! A dream set up, if you will!!

 

I am sure we will have something good this winter, I feel it in my bones!! Could be partly because I have just watched the Polar Express to show my son the value and the naughty and nice list, but none the less.... I am sure!!

Promises Promises 

 

Santa told me.... Right after he said my son needs to buck his ideas up if he wants presents this year!!

[Costa Del Fal]

Anyone see David Braine's Pudsey Ears on Spotlight tonight? Fantastic stuff. Hehe.

[knocker]

Certainly no snow in Cornwall in the foreseable and I doubt very much elsewhere. Could get a tad chilly in parts but not in the Duchy hopefully.

 

The ten day animation.

 

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/United-Kingdom

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes, I bang on about overanalysing each run, whilst it is fun here's why we shouldn't do it IMHO. This first post from Phil NW concerns last evening's GFS 18z run complete with accoiated Fax Chart input. This was after the MOD thread toys out of the pram situation we received just from the afternoons suite of NWP runs.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78461-model-output-discussion-131113/?p=2835525

 

Now, should you look back at my post from Thursday afternoon, quite frankly nothing has changed over the preceding 48 to 54 hours timeframe.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78461-model-output-discussion-131113/page-12#entry2833785

 

The pattern of gradually colder air sinking South remains, the hope of something wintry is there and the blocked Atlantic remains that way until the outer reaches of November.

 

To repeat a phrase from another posting - Look globally firstly, then regionally and finally locally come the most realistic timeframe i.e. less than t+24.  

Edited November 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Let's hope the lower side of Yelverton sees some too!! I've polished up the snow boots, tracked down the hats and gloves and changed the car for a 4x4, here's to a good winter for us in the SW.

I'm going away this Christmas for 2 weeks so i hope i don't miss all the excitement.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Ooopps forgot to ask, where do I change my password, have had to have a reset, thanks?

[That ECM]

The t216 and t 240 frames of ECM are going to cause some interest. I would love to see this happen. Prob gone by this evening tho.

[gottolovethisweather]

The t216 and t 240 frames of ECM are going to cause some interest. I would love to see this happen. Prob gone by this evening tho.

 

The whole global pattern is interesting for me. If I had one complaint it might be the lack of precipitation in the flows (overanalysing there I go) but with the Atlantic dead as a dodo and a coldie at heart, I'm a loving these developments.

Edited November 16, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[That ECM]

The whole global pattern is interesting for me. If I had one complaint it might be the lack of precipitation in the flows (overanalysing there I go) but with the Atlantic dead as a dodo and a coldie at heart, I'm a loving these developments.

Agreed, if it remains as such ie little from the west, then precipitation can pop at short notice. Especially if we get a flow from the east rather than the north. Last two frames of ECM show what could happen. IF those charts came to fruition then our region could be in for some fun. Big IF tho but hey a chance.