South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 06/11/13 0000z ------------>

[AWD]

These are the GEFS for Somerset;

Often the wrong side of marginal in terms of 850hpa temps. Also, the bottom of the ensembles in blue, show the percentage chance of snowfall when all members are considered.

[Dorsetbred]

You need a pretty special setup to get snow in my location, so i know i won't be getting anything until i see a an Easterly that originates from some seriously cold air, and a channel low, nothing else delivers.

 

I got caught out in some pretty hefty showers last night, and driving winds.

 

Currenly 10C and 

Yep, anything from the north at this time of year, usually rain for us. The good ol' easterly/EESE is a good bet for us. 

[Dorsetbred]

Hah, the only model I took seriously was Sam Fox, and I nearly died when I found out she wasn't a 100% real

[AWD]

Hah, the only model I took seriously was Sam Fox, and I nearly died when I found out she wasn't a 100% real

Don't worry, there is always Katie Price!!

[AWD]

Thought I would highlight this snippet from the latest Met Office forecast for week 2;

"There is a risk these showers could merge into longer spells of rain, sleet or snow, especially in the west, and later the south. Cold, with more widespread overnight frosts likely, although becoming less cold later."

Suggestive of a wintry mix, a la GFS Op, later next week, perhaps providing our members who live half way up in the sky a point of interest!

[Packs]

Looking good...

 

[BristolBlizzard]

Just for fun, this chart won't verify but according to the 06z GFS Op, the West Country is the place to be next week;

image.jpg

 

Man this chart is such a teaser, must learn to not get hopes up

[Beast of Plympton]

Thought I would highlight this snippet from the latest Met Office forecast for week 2;"There is a risk these showers could merge into longer spells of rain, sleet or snow, especially in the west, and later the south. Cold, with more widespread overnight frosts likely, although becoming less cold later."Suggestive of a wintry mix, a la GFS Op, later next week, perhaps providing our members who live half way up in the sky a point of interest!

 

Haha!! Licking clouds is my hobby....

[Frosty_wsm]

Just for fun, this chart won't verify but according to the 06z GFS Op, the West Country is the place to be next week;

image.jpg

Now there's an image to save! Just a shame it won't verify.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Tues until Thursday next week will  around the 0.0c down to -2.0c. Nor expecting anything else other than cold.

 

At the  moment 8,2c. Northerly breeze 6.1 km/h.

[Skullzrulerz]

I wonder if i will get any snow next week????

[AWD]

I wonder if i will get any snow next week????

Does Cornwall know what snow is? lol.

[Skullzrulerz]

Does Cornwall know what snow is? lol.

Yes I have some snow for a WEEK Back in 2010.

[AWD]

Yes I have some snow for a WEEK Back in 2010.

I know mate, I was only messing! Bodmin Moor is quite a hotspot during a colder spell. Often catch a shower or two there with a covering quickly established.

[AWD]

Taken from the below source;

"The unsettled theme is likely to continue, bringing the threat of snow as it turns colder. "The snow looks mainly confined to the hills, with a covering possible as far south as Dartmoor and Exmoor, but potentially to lower levels in the north."

http://news.sky.com/story/1168636/snow-threat-with-cold-snap-around-the-corner

Edited November 14, 2013 by AWD

[Guest William Grimsley]

I wonder if i will get any snow next week????

That's doubtful. Devon, Dorset and Somerset are more likely if at all to get any snow next week.

[Beast of Plympton]

Taken from the below source;"The unsettled theme is likely to continue, bringing the threat of snow as it turns colder. "The snow looks mainly confined to the hills, with a covering possible as far south as Dartmoor and Exmoor, but potentially to lower levels in the north."http://news.sky.com/story/1168636/snow-threat-with-cold-snap-around-the-corner

 

Get in sonny Jim....

[AWD]

Get in sonny Jim....

Didn't think it would take you long!

[AWD]

12z GFS Op still interested in giving something wintry to our region next week;

Elevation could be the key next week I think!

[Beast of Plympton]

Didn't think it would take you long!

 

You know me! You don't hear from me for 6 months, the first mention of "snow" and "Dartmoor" and I'm all over it like a rash!! A massive snow loving rash..... 

12z GFS Op still interested in giving something wintry to our region next week;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

Elevation could be the key next week I think!

 

The pink bits are back!! Weyhey!!

[gottolovethisweather]

As of the 14th November we have seemingly stopped the zonal Atlantic train, at least for now. Here's an example cocurtesy of the GFS 12z as to why that should be the case.

 

The current NH Jetstream profile.

 

 

The current NH synoptic profile.

 

 

Despite the H500s looking rather warm, actual Air Temperatures over the coming days will likely only reach double-digits Fahrenheit in the warmer urban heat island areas.

 

At t+72 (12pm 17th November) the HP cell out West is showing signs of weakening and slipping back towards the Azores, as shown by the following.

 

The NH synoptic profile.

 

 

And the NH Jetstream profile.

 

 

So by this time, most places within the region will remain dry and settled, albeit fairly cloudy.

 

By t+96 (12pm 18th November) the fun begins.

 

The NH Jetstream profile at t+96 hours.

 

 

And the NH synoptic profile at t+96 hours.

 

 

As can be witnessed, a predominantly Northwesterly flow has enveloped the UK, colder air will be seeping South and the Atlantic remains blocked bar the NW air flow. Up to this point in time, I have my extremely high confidence in my forecast. Thereafter into next week, my confidence lessens due to potential disturbances i.e. surface features popping up in the aforementioned flow.

 

If we dare go out to t+120 (12pm 19th November) these charts look stonkers for the time of year with something similar to an Omega block in development out in the Atlantic?

 

The NH Jetstream profile at t+120 hours.

 

 

The blues are invading from the North and have infiltrated us past the South Coast by t+120 hours.

 

The NH synoptic profile at t+120 hours.

 

 

Air Temperatures by this stage could struggle to reach 40 Fahrenheit (5c and above) in this region, plummeting by night as a consequence under clear skies.

 

I see no reason in attempting to produce a forecast any further out than this as at such a timescale there will likely be many surface features, fronts, occlusions etc. to contend with and the Fax Charts will best guidance in such situations.

 

All the best

 

gottolovethisweather

 

*FWIW it does at this stage that things will be predominantly dry (this will likely change) and the Atlantic won't get a look in until at least the final week of November.

 

 

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

12z GFS Op still interested in giving something wintry to our region next week;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

Elevation could be the key next week I think!

Well, it's still snow. I'd be happy if there was snow on Dartmoor and Exmoor, even if there wasn't as snow, here.

[Nights King]

Looking good for a wintry mix next week  we might sneak a snow day into November at this rate which would be a nice start to winter.

 

If it stays on track it could get busy in here by sunday/Monday onwards next week...

[AWD]

Anyone been into the MOD thread this evening?

Ruddy hell, silly season has well and truly started. It's like reading pages upon pages of the Daily Star in there!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Will it snow in cardiff? Thought I'd ask