South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 06/11/13 0000z ------------>

[Nights King]

I know we don't even have the cold here yet but won't ground temperatures be a little on the high side this early in the season if it was to snow? We have barely had any frost so far except for todays.

[AWD]

I know we don't even have the cold here yet but won't ground temperatures be a little on the high side this early in the season if it was to snow? We have barely had any frost so far except for todays.

It isn't going to snow, at least not for the foreseeable. Should become rather cold and dry firstly next week which should help lower ground temperatures. Every chance of a frost or two too, depending on cloudcover and winds.Snow for our region is still way out in FI and not worth worrying about yet. However, when/if it does come, then I have every faith you'll be the first to see it with your elevation and luck! :)

[Nights King]

Lets hope for a nice sneaky trough.

 

Anyone remember that short but very intense one that came off a northerly a few years back giving thunder snow? Think it snowed for less than hour but dumped 4 inches or there about.

[Sungirl]

Hello all

 

I thought I would poke my nose in on a non-event weather occasion  I usually post when there is something extreme happening but all I have to report is that my car windscreen was frozen when I left for the school walk this morning and that is the first time this year!  By the time I left for work it had defrosted but I fear that soon, I will have to scrape it

 

I am looking forward to any snow that might come our way, and the excitement and lamp post watching on here when it is forecast

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello all

 

I thought I would poke my nose in on a non-event weather occasion  I usually post when there is something extreme happening but all I have to report is that my car windscreen was frozen when I left for the school walk this morning and that is the first time this year!  By the time I left for work it had defrosted but I fear that soon, I will have to scrape it

 

I am looking forward to any snow that might come our way, and the excitement and lamp post watching on here when it is forecast

 

I think you'll be back watching with anticipation by early next week if not before. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST SUGGESTING ^snowfall, TIS SIMPLY JUST A HUNCH.

Edited November 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Iggy912]

Hello all

 

I thought I would poke my nose in on a non-event weather occasion  I usually post when there is something extreme happening but all I have to report is that my car windscreen was frozen when I left for the school walk this morning and that is the first time this year!  By the time I left for work it had defrosted but I fear that soon, I will have to scrape it

 

I am looking forward to any snow that might come our way, and the excitement and lamp post watching on here when it is forecast

Hi Sungirl,

 

Talking car windscreens... mine was frozen on the inside this morning and that's a first!

Like you, looking foward to the snow, but don't feel ready for it quite yet...

[gottolovethisweather]

As hinted at here and there by a few folk including myself elsewhere, Tuesday and Wednesday next week looks worthy of at least a heads up.

 

Newbury's Forecast for Tuesday 19th November at

 

9pm shows this 

 

Wednesday 20th November, even more intriguing.

 

12am midnight though to 6am shows this 

 

 

All to be taken with the proverbial GRITTER load of salt but at least this trend is pretty consistent and is only at t+132 range.

Edited November 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Mark Neal.]

Just posted in MOD Thread about the GFS 00Z, showing a snow event for SW next Tuesday night into Wednesday...

 

The 00z Run from GFS, even showed a snow event for SW for next Tuesday night into Wednesday. To be taken with a pinch of salt but nice to see these charts showing at times however 

   

 

Some cold uppers in the flow.. See the Low pressure to the SW. 

 

Quick Search of XC shows this... http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/BRISTOL  (Based on the GFS 00Z)

 

It doesn't have much support at this stage, so will probably be gone next run, but thought i'd share with you guys.

 

Just seen GTLTW Post, spot on! 

Edited November 14, 2013 by Mark N

[Kiwi]

Just posted in MOD Thread about the GFS 00Z, showing a snow event for SW next Tuesday night into Wednesday...

 

The 00z Run from GFS, even showed a snow event for SW for next Tuesday night into Wednesday. To be taken with a pinch of salt but nice to see these charts showing at times however 

 

Yes Mark, this made me smile this morning, but as you say to be taken with a very large pinch of salt!!

 

Yet again GFS seems to be playing catch up with some of the other models re this upcoming cold/cool spell and is throwing lots of different solutions out at the moment. 

[Dorsetbred]

How a day changes everything, yesterday scraping ice, today 7C. Seesaw ride at the moment.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Yes Mark, this made me smile this morning, but as you say to be taken with a very large pinch of salt!!

 

Yet again GFS seems to be playing catch up with some of the other models re this upcoming cold/cool spell and is throwing lots of different solutions out at the moment. 

prec1.png

Hell yeah! Bring it on!

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was wet and mild with a moderate wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.2 mm 00:07 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.6 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 10.4°C 12:48 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 15 mph 22:03 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 9 mph 22:26 Wind Run Yesterday: 49.6 mi Dominant Direction Yesterday: 222° SW.

Edited November 14, 2013 by William Grimsley

[wimblettben]

I have never really been one for snow unfourtunately. Only as a kid did I really think it was anything special.

 

Nowadays I just wan't constant strong winds and thunderstorms!!!!!!!

[Nights King]

70% chance of snow Tuesday and Wednesday according to netweather local forecast

[AWD]

Without wanting to sound like a Scrooge, the downside to the GFS simplistic PPN charts/computerised forecasts etc is that it simply translates the -5c line into the snowline when we all know things are much more complicated than that when forecasting snowfall.

The current above average SST's we have all around us will soon mix out the colder 850hpa air as it comes to the surface thus increasing the Wet Bulb values and therefore turning PPN to rain/hail/sleet etc rather then snow. Obviously the more elevated you are the less time this process has to happen and therefore the increasing likelihood that you could see a little of the white stuff.

Also Dewpoints, from a northerly direction, tend ti take longer to receed compared to a more drier, continental flow. This and warm ground temperatures due to the limited coldness to date will make any snowfall we might get very hard to stick, even at elevated areas.

The one positive though is that under evaporative cooling and higher intensity showers, we could have a right old mix of anything, including a lowering of the WB values. It is going to be a very unstable and fascinating flow!

[AWD]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY Colder weather digs-in esp. after Tues; @metoffice suggest "nowhere immune" to some ice/sleet/snow, but f'cast detail is v tricky. Thereafter, a signal for colder conditions, in broad sense, is considered most likely outcome into next 10-15 days. Worth adding that such colder spells are not untypical for mid-late November, despite some ridiculous media hyperbole."

[Snowmadsam]

Excuse me for interupting your thread folks (Wales one is quiet!) South west side of the country may get some snow, as we have a North/North westerly coming in this week. This may also trigger a Pemroheshire Danger. This is a small feature that many models don't pick up on usually cause of the scale of the model is too big.

 

I honestly wouldnt be surprised if we saw events similar to the 25th November 2005!

 

Just don't take the models too seriously, they are only a guide to what MIGHT happen, not what WILL happen.

 

Sam (keep your eyes peeled!!)

[Guest William Grimsley]

There was a nice squally rain shower 15 minutes ago, here. The damage was 1 limb which fell down off the silver birch tree to the S of the house and several leaves which fell down off the oak trees to the WNW of the house. High Wind Gust In The Rain Shower: 15 mph 09:33 High Wind Speed In The Rain Shower: 2 mph 09:33 High Rainfall Rate Today And In The Rain Shower: 13.4 mm/hr 09:34 Rainfall In The Rain Shower: 0.8 mm.

Edited November 14, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Mapantz]

You need a pretty special setup to get snow in my location, so i know i won't be getting anything until i see a an Easterly that originates from some seriously cold air, and a channel low, nothing else delivers. :lol:

 

I got caught out in some pretty hefty showers last night, and driving winds.

 

Currenly 10C and 

[AWD]

Just for fun, this chart won't verify but according to the 06z GFS Op, the West Country is the place to be next week;

[Deep Channel low]

Hello, 00hrs gfs is showing a low moving up the channel to about the isle of Wight and then heading back west  to the Atlantic. Seams a strange track to me I'm thinking it is bouncing of off the high pressure which causes it to turn around, anybody think that this will actually happen? but it is along way off yet. Hopefully it will bring some interesting weather to us on the south coast hopefully some snow or at least some on the hills.

[Beast of Plympton]

Got some pretty heavy PPN here... Next week is shaping up to be interesting, Netweather is showing 100% chance of snow and a lot of it Tuesday into Wednesday. Probably won't verify but will be good to see if it happens!!

Edited November 14, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Deep Channel low]

This does look good for a bit of early excitement but must not count are chickens just yet, although it is hard when looking at the charts at the mo. here's hoping.

[Beast of Plympton]

This does look good for a bit of early excitement but must not count are chickens just yet, although it is hard when looking at the charts at the mo. here's hoping.

 I will just count the chickens very slowly!!

[AWD]

A more sensible GFS 06z spread chart for snow depth mid next week;

Take with a pinch of salt though, ground temps still rather warm for settling snow!

Edited November 14, 2013 by AWD