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Heavy rain Watch - From 5th Nov 2013 >>>>>

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Please use this thread to discuss the precipitation associated with the weather systems.

Looking as though quite a few spells of very wet weather with heavy rain and heavy showers affecting many areas over the next week (won't go to far ahead!) these systems affecting England and Wales in particular over the next several days. The first rolling in across the south by morning tomorrow and turning milder too, gales are possible.

Likely there be an increasing flood risk with local surface water and river flooding.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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yes certainly some high rainfall totalls possible .firstly wednesdays rain is proving a hard one to call in how far north this pushes and the speed of the system ,so if it hangs about that will certainly add to recent hvy falls .showers over thurs and friday if they become slow moving could push local rain totalls fairly high as well .Saturday could also see some persistant rain but at this range timing and track is still undescided .and yet more rain early next week before pressure probably builds across the south .im glad i took a chance and cut my lawns yesterday ,Posted Image

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Looking forward to yet more rain through tomorrow (NOT!) We already have 24mm of rain in November so far.

Edited by Mark N

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There is a line of rain some heavy downpours in it along a weather front lying from SW England to EA(south) this rain heading into the SE overnight.

A look ahead suggests many spells of wet weather some heavy rain at times but clearer and drier gaps inbetween, some showers too.

The flood risk would increase with all this rain so keep check on forecasts and river agency forecasts.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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Friday afternoon into and through the evening needs watching closely as an active feature develops over S-UK, this is likely to produce alot of heavy rain this affecting the SW by early afternoon I expect, not sure yet how far east of west but I suspect east of SW England the area most at risk, through afternoon Central South being affected and then into SE and EA by evening time. Could get 20mm or more of rain, NAE indicating particulary heavy rain especially into SE / EA.

(could some one post ppn charts for this event thanks! on mobile can't upload)

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Friday afternoon into and through the evening needs watching closely as an active feature develops over S-UK

(could some one post ppn charts for this event thanks! on mobile can't upload)

 

No worries:

 

Posted Image

 

post-6667-0-61779700-1383894966_thumb.jp
 
Note that isolated chance of a thunderstorm on the Met O 5 day for tomorrow too.
 
GFS:
 
Posted Image
 
Posted Image
 
Later Saturday afternoon:

 

Posted Image

 

NMM:

 

post-6667-0-90571700-1383896332_thumb.pn  post-6667-0-44699300-1383896334_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-65234900-1383896335_thumb.pn

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Guest William Grimsley

No worries:

 

Posted Image

 

 
 
Note that isolated chance of a thunderstorm on the Met O 5 day for tomorrow too.
 
GFS:
 
Posted Image
 
Posted Image
 
Later Saturday afternoon:

 

Posted Image

 

NMM:

 

Posted ImageNMM precip 091113 12 z.png  Posted ImageNMM precip 091113 15 z.png

 

Posted ImageNMM precip 091113 18 z.png

Those charts looking good. Those charts show evidence that it is going to be very wet today and tomorrow across the UK and, here.

Edited by William Grimsley

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No storms tbh can't see it..

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Yellow warning for rain now out from the Met O for the South East:

 

Issued at: 
1026 on Fri 8 Nov 2013
 
Valid from: 
1200 on Fri 8 Nov 2013
 
Valid to: 
2300 on Fri 8 Nov 2013
 
Areas of heavy rain will move east across southeastern parts of England during Friday afternoon, clearing eastwards during the evening.
 
The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding. An active trough of low pressure will move eastwards across the southern half of the UK during Friday, bringing areas of heavy rain and also the risk of strong winds or gales to exposed coastal parts of Sussex and Kent during the early evening. Despite the likelihood of some heavy rain across other central and southern parts of England at first, the main risk of localised surface water flooding is within the warning area, where 5-10 mm of rain is possible within an hour and locally 20-30 mm within 4 hours.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1383868800

 

and again for tomorrow:

 

 

Issued at: 
1034 on Fri 8 Nov 2013
 
Valid from: 
0900 on Sat 9 Nov 2013
 
Valid to: 
1600 on Sat 9 Nov 2013
 
Another area of heavy rain is likely to move east across southern parts of England during Saturday.
 
The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding. Showers are likely to merge into a 2-3 hour spell of heavy rain as an active trough moves eastwards during Saturday, with parts of southeast England at risk of 15-25 mm of rain falling within that time.
 
Local Authorities affected and associated warning levels
 
Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Kent, Medway, Surrey, West Sussex, Isle of Wight, Hampshire, Portsmouth

 

 

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Watch out, the Daily Express says Britain will be battered....
 
Posted Image

Britain to be battered by heavy rain and wind over the weekend
 
BRITAIN is about to take another battering from the elements as more stormy weather rolls in at the weekend Heavy rain and wind will hit parts of the country thanks to a low pressure system sweeping in from the Atlantic. Forecasters warned the more unsettled conditions will arrive tomorrow in the West before another hammering on Sunday. However it will feel much warmer with mild air pushing temperatures to around 61F (16C) - well above-average for the time of year. The Met Office warned wind and rain looks set to rumble through this month with the North and West in for the worst of it.
 
Forecaster Dan Williams said: “Rain across southeastern England will clear on Tuesday morning with sunny spells and scattered showers following elsewhere, showers locally heavy and thundery across the north and west. “It will be breezy with local gales across the North. By Wednesday, there should be more sunshine and fewer showers across the country with lighter winds. “From Thursday to Saturday, southern areas should enjoy drier and brighter weather with lighter winds although with a fog and frost risk, whilst northern parts will be more unsettled with rain and stronger winds. “These unsettled conditions look set to return to the whole of the UK with the heaviest rain across the North and Westâ€
 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/441712/Britain-to-be-battered-by-heavy-rain-and-wind-over-the-weekend

 

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Watch out, the Daily Express says Britain will be battered....
 
Posted Image

 

I don't know where the 'Battered by winds' is coming from.

 

The gales they are talking about will only affect high and exposed areas in the north!Posted Image

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I had one of the best downpours of the year this morning, about 6mm fell in around 9 minutes. There's been steady rain since then, 12.4mm altogether.  

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Thanks for posting those charts earlier Coast.

Looking likely more heavy rainfall S/SE UK on Saturday. Had heavy downpours today over Stanwell and quite big roadside flooding, the ground is very wet on the grass under foot, that's my test of saturation level! It works though and gives me a good idea of surface drainage and run-off possibilitys and so what added risk of flooding due to lack of soak up of rainwater..

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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I don't think the rain yesterday & today really warranted any yellow warnings.

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Mapantz, do you mean locally your area or generally ? The rain was particulary intense in places especially Friday (inclu my area) there was roadside flooding, radar was showing a large area of heavy/v heavy precipitation over parts of S and SE in particular. So yellow warning certainly needed (as there was on Friday) Saturday's area of heavy rain added to flooding and road spray over parts of S/SE and there was yellow warning. I'm not one who questions warnings placed by experts but every one is entitled to there opinion on the subject.

Back on topic!

Quite wet out there again across parts of S/SE at the moment, this rain moving away later, should be a dry, sunny day Sunday. I hope to be updating next week with more useful info, on mobile at moment.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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There's some heavy rain affecting parts of NW England and a line of very heavy rain from N-S through Central Wales. Also heavy downpours over other western and northern areas. This system moving east and south through this evening and overnight into EA and SE tonight.

Missed updating previous days, apologies to those keeping up with this.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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You mean heavy showers? It's pretty well fragmented and was forecast to continue getting more fragmented as it moves SE. Heavy showers were mentioned for NW England later though.

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TP ,I looked at the 1830 HR radar which indicated quite organised heavy rain over the NW and Wales, still quite alot of rain/showers in places now in West and North

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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I guess you were using the new nw extra scales ?

Anyway the forecast was fairly well right fragmented into showers giving us a total of 3mm overnight.

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