Super Typhoon Haiyan

[Sainsbo]

PS: You have to remember that the population of the Philippines (and indeed the world) has increased multifold over the last 100 years.  So more people will die in a disaster than in past centuries. Below is the list of the worst 15 cyclones/typhoons/hurricanes recorded.

 

So more people will die in storms now than centuries ago, despite modern forecasting that now gives people usually the best part of 48 hours to prepare/evacuate, when in past centuries they had no warning at all?

 

Note that Typhoon Haiyan is not even in the top 15, in fact, its not even in the top 35 on loss of life, or intensity.

 

 

I'm not sure if this is just badly worded, but is this trying to imply that it doesn't rank in the top 35 in regards to intensity? It's true that it doesn't rank in the top 35 in terms of deaths caused, most likely due to the notice that they received, but for it to be stated that it doesn't even make it in to the top 35 in regards to its intensity is ludicrous!

[Roger J Smith]

I think they meant it was worst in terms of intensity upon hitting land. Death tolls in storms before 1950 (perhaps 1990 in Bangla Desh) are always likely to run higher due to lack of effective warnings. This storm would have killed more people had it happened in earlier times, although it has to be said, evacuation in Tacloban was not very effective apparently (from storm surge areas) and to some extent the same may be true in other places near there. Further afield, most of the actual storm deaths are due to wind damage rather than surge. Some people heeded warnings, went to evacuation centres and were still among the dead or injured as these locations were blown apart. Having watched some video of strong cat-4 conditions in a town in western Leyte (San Ysidro) and comparing with damage photos elsewhere, I would have to say that it's actually a good rather than bad thing that local housing construction is relatively flimsy, this seems to result in homes being blown apart without crushing falls of heavy roofs, walls or ceilings. This can actually reduce death and injury tolls. For example, we are still being told that in Guiuan, pop. 45,000, exposed to high-end cat-5 winds at landfall, the death toll is less than 100. This is far lower per capita than wind-related (not surge-related) death tolls in U.S. landfalling cat-4 storms.

 

I believe reports that Haiyan (Yolanda) was the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in modern times. Estimates of 900 mb central pressure at landfall seem realistic. Whether it was the strongest tropical cyclone over open ocean is less certain, I would say we can be sure it was in the top five or so (in past century). Did human climate modification "cause" this to happen? No way, this would have happened within 1-2 mb and 3-5 mph of wind gust speed, even with no human beings on the planet, or at any earlier stage of our development. Would that much intensification (if provable) mean very much? You tell me. A wind gust of 230 mph plus or minus 3-5 mph is going to do pretty much the same damage regardless.