east pacific Tropical Storm Sonia

[Somerset Squall]

TD 18E has formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Winds are currently at 30kts. The depression is quite disorganised, with more than one LLCC associated with the convective mass. The depression is drifting northwestwards but should turn north then northeast soon as a trough approaches from the west and recurves 18E. The resultant track will bring 18E close to the southern tip of Baja California but ultimately a landfall on the coast of Mexico, north of Mazatlan. Based on the disorganised state of the depression, significant strengthening is not expected. The depression should become a weak tropical storm before waters cool and and shear rises along track.

 

[Somerset Squall]

18E has become Tropical Storm Sonia, with winds of 40kts. Yesterday evening, Sonia became much better organised with some very deep convection exploding directly over the LLCC. This convection has persisted since and remains deep. As shear is expected to rise soon, further significant intensification is not expected. However, Sonia should still be a tropical storm at landfall in about 24 hours time. Sonia is moving north but should turn to the northeast very soon south of the southern tip of Baja California.

[Coast]

 

 

U.S. forecasters say Tropical Storm Sonia is rumbling across the Pacific below the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula on a projected track toward the mainland.

 

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sonia grew from a tropical depression early Sunday and is now centered about 250 miles (400 kms) south of the southernmost tip of the peninsula. Maximum sustained winds stand at 40 mph (65 kph) and the storm is moving north at 7 mph (11 kph).

 

The center says a tropical storm warning extends from Mazatlan northward to Altata on northwest Mexico's mainland. Forecasters expect Sonia to pass south of the Baja peninsula in coming hours and near the mainland coast early Monday. Forecasters say Sonia could unleash heavy rains and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/03/tropical-storm-sonia_n_4208321.html?ir=World

[Somerset Squall]

Sonia is making landfall on the west coast of Mexico. The heavy rains have spread well inland, but the LLCC is lagging behind due to shear. Shear, along with frictional drag across the high terrain will ensure quick dissipation.