Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

Recommended Posts

Will you please refrain from making daft, pointless and off-topic posts? The thread is busy enough as it is...Posted Image 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is good to day 7, no comparison to the monumental 0z ECWMF though.

 

Posted Image

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could see some spectacular heights at Greenland by 144 ecm the way things are evolve!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good point.remember glacier point saying dont always look for the yellows and oranges when looking for blocking"nearly put apples then"!!!It happened last winter and did deliver even tho the mb readings were not massive.

That's true to be fair. Even in the chilly Winter of 1962 and 1963, there were times where blocking High Pressure systems to the North-West/North were only occupied by greens and bluey-green colours.

 

An example from the period: 3rd January to 10th January 1963, where their were no oranges or yellows accompanying the Highs to the North and North-West.

 

3rd January 1963

post-10703-0-71091600-1384365378_thumb.g

 

10th January 1963 (blocking continues to the North-West)

post-10703-0-93522000-1384365393_thumb.g

 

I suppose when Northern blocking forms, the Highs may generally be accompanied by more yellow and orange colours (and perhaps can help make them even more robust), otherwise the example above shows how Northern blocking can continue without the oranges and yellows being part of the blocking High Pressure systems.

 

It probably should also be noted when it got to the 12th January 1963, a little 'bubble' of yellows started to re-emerge in the High Pressure system to the North-West.

 

post-10703-0-81821800-1384365957_thumb.g

 

But the fact that the blocking did still manage to carry on before some of the yellows started to come back with those Highs, I think does show that the yellows and oranges aren't always necessary for these kind of setups (even though they probably help with the formation of blocking at the start).

 

As for the models, the cold spell/snap still looks likely for the beginning part of next week, at least, with a cold North-Westerly and/or Northerly flow looking likely on most models as High Pressure amplifies to the West of the UK. Whether we'll see this topple will clearly depend on a number of aspects. Some of these include how far North the High to our West can ridge, and whether Lows to the West of the High can pump enough Warm Air Advection Northwards to disrupt the Polar Vortex enough to help form longer term blocking to the North-West of us. I think as some others mentioned, I think we do need to watch out that not too much energy and Lows pile over the High to our West (similar to what some of the last few GFS runs had showed) as we could easily see a flat, more mobile Westerly type pattern returning. There is also that other possibility that the High to our West could topple in a way to turn the Northerly or North-Westerly winds into cold North-Easterly winds. :)

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm ECM at 120 the -4 line is only just touching Scotland. In the previous trunk at 144 they were halfway down the country

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted Image

My, my, the UKMO has a friend. Classic troughing into central Europe- strong MLB ridging into Greenland with a good retrogressive motion on it, a little unorthodox WAA up there- but the end result is a slack, wintry N'ly for much of the UK at 144. EC's done its job again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm ECM at 120 the -4 line is only just touching Scotland. In the previous trunk at 144 they were halfway down the country

 

Dunner worry, they're on the way down

 

Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm ECM at 120 the -4 line is only just touching Scotland. In the previous trunk at 144 they were halfway down the country

 

t144 looks fine for coldies

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes yesss!!!brilliant 144 hour chart from ecm!!agrees with the ukmo!!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm ECM at 120 the -4 line is only just touching Scotland. In the previous trunk at 144 they were halfway down the country

 

850mb temps will chop and change right up to 24-48 hours out. A lot depends on the exact timing and movement of features to the north that won't be nailed down yet.

Edited by radiohead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm ECM at 120 the -4 line is only just touching Scotland. In the previous trunk at 144 they were halfway down the country

 

Yes but look at the northern hemisphere!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS  Posted Image UKMO Posted Image ECM Posted Image

 

144 comparisons show GFS is keenest to push energy through over the block.

Also UKMO and ECM have low pressure developing on the Western flank which could aid WAA to our NW

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent from the ECM, it usually has more moderate uppers than the GFS so we shouldn't be too surprised but the euros are looking excellent tonight:

Posted Image

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM and UKMO still keep some form of link between the Atlantic High and North Pole High. GFS in typical fashion says no to that and ramps up the low pressures to the North of our block.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tonight's 120 hrs fax chart should be interesting.

 

How many cold front's will it show?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

168 shows -8 uppers crossing northern Scotland

 

Posted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For as good as the ECM charts look, the -8 air never extends further south than northern Scotland out to T168. Of course that will change with each run, but perhaps an indication that the GFS has been overdoing the cold uppers.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

168 shows -8 uppers crossing northern Scotland

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

That's a nice line of lows building up in the Atlantic, I hope that aids the retrogression of high pressure to our Northwest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For as good as the ECM charts look, the -8 air never extends further south than northern Scotland out to T168. Of course that will change with each run, but perhaps an indication that the GFS has been overdoing the cold uppers.

 

I noticed last year that whilst the GFS often lessened the depth of the cold uppers as the time approached, the ECM increased the depth of the uppers. Therefore perhaps a middle ground scenario on upper temps may be the path to take?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...