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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013


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Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    As expected the GFS 12z is a great deal more amplified that the lowly 06z

     

    Could be a good run from the GFS!

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Better amplification across the whole NH...

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    As expected the GFS 12z is a great deal more amplified that the lowly 06z

     

    Could be a good run from the GFS!

    S

    Yes the 06z in my opinion is the worst out of the 4 GFS runs. As for snow the Ireland/Scotland, the west and south-west bode well from these northerly setups (like they saw in 2005) as convection in Celtic Sea kicks off showers. This is shown perfectly on the chart below:

    Posted Image

    Edited by Panayiotis
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    Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

    Lovely Jubbly!

     

    Brrrrr!!!!

     

    Posted Image

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Looks very similar ro the 06z to me?

     

    that's because your looking at the UK

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    Posted
  • Location: Londonderry , Northern Ireland
  • Location: Londonderry , Northern Ireland

    Its still a pretty transient affair in terms of the very cold air that is across the UK, if the high were to move over and centre itself over the UK after the original cold blast then it could have turned frosty and foggy, unlike with the likely scenario of NW/W air stream.  However, over the medium term conditions look good for potential cold blasts.

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    Posted
  • Location: stourport on severn, worcestershire 27m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: stourport on severn, worcestershire 27m asl

    More like BrrrrPosted Image Posted Image

    The models are really firming up now on a much colder spell through much if not all of next week with ice, snow and widespread frosts, this is no joke, bbc news 24 weather said it, cold spell here we come...The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is the most wintry it has been so far, lets hope we get a lot more of this in the weeks and months ahead.

    oooo look...the PFJ is having a late autumn holiday in spain this year

    Yes indeed frosty, I have followed this thread for the last 2years, have learnt a lot from more learned posters like yourself, can't make head or tail of charts yet but still do find the whole forum very intersting, & yes my comment is not particularly model related, but then in way it is, because I'm learning.......

    N

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Quite cold at T144. -10 uppers in Scotland.

     

    Posted Image

    Even -9  850hpa down herePosted Image

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111312/gfsnh-0-186.png?12 THis is the real discussion point- whether the GFS can resolve the split energy over western Greenland & the area of vorticity around 500 miles south of Greenland- On the 'correct' runs they split & allow the Canadian low to move north with vertical advection across Greenland- however the GFS may try & incorrectly phase them together & flatten the lot- its really simples as that- the GFS has been separation that the 06z so its catching up slowly- all be it in an area where not many people are looking PHASE 2 of cold is this really- separation of energy = new high pressure @ 216-240 S

    I remember this exact scenario from previous years.
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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    Looks like we're going to get high pressure moving into Greenland in FI again. We need to keep an eye on that Atlantic high that joins in after our toppled high of the initial cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Pv very close to splitting imo.nh charts are getting very intriguing and this run does show much more amplification ie ecm.fascinating stuff here!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    After the cold snap milder air and high pressure returns

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    Colder air tries to get in again as we end Autumn but it can't fully manage it

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    A 2 or 3 day cold snap looks very likely next week before a return to something more normal if GFS is correct

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Pv very close to splitting imo.nh charts are getting very intriguing and this run does show much more amplification ie ecm.fascinating stuff here!!

     

    A common theme of the paint splatter low rez GFS has been the polar vortex getting a bit of a kicking. Not sure I buy the 'look for broad trends' stuff said about the latter stages of the GFS, but make of it what you will.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    From the Strat you can see the core cold moving east away from Greenland allowing heights to build also cooling at the core as it does.

     

    GFS FI shows us some hope for an Artic high to form first run to show this.

     

    Posted Image

    Apart from that the GFS FI is fairly poor as there is lack of cold air to the NE.

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    Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111312/gfsnh-0-186.png?12

     

    THis is the real discussion point- whether the GFS can resolve the split energy over western Greenland & the area of vorticity around 500 miles south of Greenland-

     

    On the 'correct' runs they split & allow the Canadian low to move north with vertical advection across Greenland- however the GFS may try & incorrectly phase them together & flatten the lot-

     

    its really simples as that- the GFS has better separation that the 06z so its catching up slowly- all be it in an area where not many people are looking- but at 186 its low res will probably phase them-

     

    give the GFS 12z another 48 hours......

     

    PHASE 2 of cold is this really- separation of energy = new high pressure @ 216-240

     

    S

     

     

    The 12Z has removed the north bound LP from this run altogether which is bad news for any sort of Greenie down the line. 

     

    Overall, the GFS is fairly firm on the next 5 maybe 7 days. The next 2 weeks are going to be very exciting. The evolving pattern is very similar to Nov/Dev 2010 and, I don't about everyone else, but I'm remaining quietly excited.

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Maybe some snow for Dartmoor mid next week

     

    Posted Image

     

    Monday evening and more so Tuesday is when the bulk of the wintery stuff is on shown especially for those in Scotland

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    The bulk of Scotland struggles to get into positive digits on Tuesday, everywhere struggles with temperatures though the far south west may get to 8c

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    The 12Z has removed the north bound LP from this run altogether which is bad news for any sort of Greenie down the line. 

     

    Overall, the GFS is fairly firm on the next 5 maybe 7 days. The next 2 weeks are going to be very exciting. The evolving pattern is very similar to Nov/Dev 2010 and, I don't about everyone else, but I'm remaining quietly excited.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The 0z ECM is a good run but can it be replicated on the 12z? If it is then I think Steve may well be right that the GFS is up to its old tricks and will probably take another 48 hrs, at least, for it to 'catch up'

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    It does look like a great wee spell coming. But to be fair it will be rather, if not very, short lived. 

    I'll be very suprised if the relatively warm sea doesn't create instability in any northerly airflow at this time of year but essentially very dry and very cold for a while next week looks odds on.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The painfully slow climb down from the GFS continues, NOAA commented for several days regarding what happens with the polar jet in terms of axis and possible interaction with southern stream energy, we can see now the big difference as these phase upstream and produce that more amplified wave which in turn helps the high a little further north.However it becomes a little too flat after that as it drives more energy over the top.Sadly the rest of the outputs haven't shown up, the UKMO would have been good to see, whats up with this, it seems to be getting later and later each day.

    Edited by nick sussex
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