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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I struggle to see rampant zonality on the charts you show?

    Yep there are only a few 6z perturbations showing sw'ly weather, most are cold or trending cold or very cold.

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    FI rocks lol.

     

    The blocking is "locked and loaded"!

     

     

    I would hardly describe in the terms you use with little sign on that chart of any genuine Greenland high?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    There are some crackers here during the later frames of the GEFS 06z perturbations, some very wintry charts which have a very nov/dec 2010 look about them with retrogressing high's to greenland and strong scandi troughs and the GEFS 06z mean looks nippy...something is brewing.Posted Image

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    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Don't want to be a party pooper but should individual frames way out in FI not really be posted in the ramping thread?

     

    posting individual frames be it to illustrate warm or cold especially in the far reaches is a waste of time but folk soon come to realise who does this and take the appropriate action, be it to ignore or not look at their posts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

     

    Parts of eastern Europe are seeing temperatures 2 to 4c above average currently

     

    Posted Image

    That's pretty much irrelevant.

    Land cools much quicker than the sea - it only needs a few days of bone chilling temps to our East for that land mass to cool down markedly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Yep i'm very happy, if anything, the models so far today have upgraded the cold since yesterday. I would love to think P12 is the template for our weather later this month. We get a Beast from the Northeast..or is it chewbaka in disguisePosted Image

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    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Well looks like the AW 13/14 Roller-coaster has started!

     

    Certainly some encouraging signs in the model output and good consensus among the models too.

     

    My only note of caution in THAT ECM from last year. We all got sucked in and well I am sure you all know the rest.

     

    A long way to go with this, but the encouraging thing is that it could upgrade into something truly memorable......we shall see, fingers crossed!

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    posting individual frames be it to illustrate warm or cold especially in the far reaches is a waste of time but folk soon come to realise who does this and take the appropriate action, be it to ignore or not look at their posts.

    Absolutely JH...even now if you want to talk about near certainties then....'becoming colder next week, but still no clear signal thereafter' is pretty much as far I'd go.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    I think the excitement is understandable given the long absence of anything wintry in the charts to look forward to but the reality is that we are likely looking at a 2 or 3 day toppler which might be of interest to some in the North, especially on high ground but may go almost unnoticed further South other than a chill in the air.

    Being in the NW I may get some wintry showers out of it with luck but I'm more interested in what will happen after the high topples, whether we see flatter patterns being modelled or we start getting some good winter charts with blocking to our West and North as we head for December.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    I think the excitement is understandable given the long absence of anything wintry in the charts to look forward to but the reality is that we are likely looking at a 2 or 3 day toppler which might be of interest to some in the North, especially on high ground but may go almost unnoticed further South other than a chill in the air.

    Being in the NW I may get some wintry showers out of it with luck but I'm more interested in what will happen after the high topples, whether we see flatter patterns being modelled or we start getting some good winter charts with blocking to our West and North as we head for December.

     

    Any chance of popping your location in below your avatar?

     

    Makes life a little easier :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Absolutely JH...even now if you want to talk about near certainties then....'becoming colder next week, but still no clear signal thereafter' is pretty much as far I'd go.

    Yes the colder trend for next week with that nw flow in pretty good agreement amonst the day 8-10 ooz Op mean hts.

    post-2026-0-71187700-1384348035_thumb.gi

     

    and this cold incursion around the Atlantic block is reflected in the 850hPa NAEF's and ECM anomaly charts around days 7 to 8

     

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    -ve temps. anything from  4 to 6C for  2 or 3 days before they start to warm out somewhat.

    Some more snowfall for Scotland from that i would think and a chance for some heights further south.

    Frosty nights for many too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    BBC Weather on the BBC 1 news talking about it turning colder next week with frost, ice and possibly some snow

     

    Things are starting to firm up now at the met office though it won't be as bad as what the Express today are making it sound.

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    Yes the colder trend for next week with that nw flow in pretty good agreement amonst the day 8-10 ooz Op mean hts.

    Posted Imagetest8.gif

     

    and this cold incursion around the Atlantic block is reflected in the 850hPa NAEF's and ECM anomaly charts around days 7 to 8

     

    Posted Imagenaefsnh-0-1-156.pngPosted ImageEDH100-168.GIF.png

     

    -ve temps. anything from  4 to 6C for  2 or 3 days before they start to warm out somewhat.

    Some more snowfall for Scotland from that i would think and a chance for some heights further south.

    Frosty nights for many too.

    Good post Phil.  Main problem for me is it'll only be late Nov, but many seem to be viewing the likely outcome from the available data as if it were late Jan.  Even 850's of 4-6c > ave are going to make snow marginal on low ground, even across the north, but if it were mid winter then we really could have been looking down the barrel of something genuinely interesting.  Hopefully these charts will be setting a precident as we move into Winter, but equally we could again end up looking back on them as 'great synoptics, just wrong time of year'....wouldn't mind a tenner for every time thats been said either!! 

    Edited by shedhead
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    BBC Weather on the BBC 1 news talking about it turning colder next week with frost, ice and possibly some snow

     

    Things are starting to firm up now at the met office though it won't be as bad as what the Express today are making it sound.

    yes, i noticed that. Not sure what to make of the MetO currently. Their medium/long term forecasts had little hint of this cold spell last week.. nor did the EC32. In fact, the MetO were still banging the drums for a mild Nov, esp in the south - 'where frost would be limited', or words to that effect. The ECM ens for London are anything but mild into next week and beyond.

    Posted Image

    ECM Ens temp anomaly keeps the South esp below average days 6-10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    ? People are excited because of the fact it is November shedhead? Think your missing the point. Dont think anyone is talking about how much lying snow there will be. The main point of the discussion is the pattern that is evolving. Only recently you were firmly on the zonal wagon with no change in sight. We are heading into winter, cold charts are not uncommon this time of year mate! After last November and December 2012 its great we have some interesting cold charts to talk about now that we are heading into winter proper. 

    Edited by MPG
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    yes, i noticed that. Not sure what to make of the MetO currently. Their medium/long term forecasts had little hint of this cold spell last week.. nor did the EC32. In fact, the MetO were still banging the drums for a mild Nov, esp in the south - 'where frost would be limited', or words to that effect. The ECM ens for London are anything but mild into next week and beyond.

    Posted Image

    ECM Ens temp anomaly keeps the South esp below average days 6-10.

     

    Looking at that Spain, Portugal and France are going to be well below average

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    Britain braced for 'Polar plunge' as cold winter freeze takes hold.

     

     

     

     

    This is the good old Express at their ridiculous best....isnt it about time somebody stopped them from printing this utter rubbish....

    Edited by bigsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: stourport on severn, worcestershire 27m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: stourport on severn, worcestershire 27m asl

    Britain braced for 'Polar plunge' as cold winter freeze takes hold.This is the good old Express at their ridiculous best....isnt it about time somebody stopped them from printing this utter rubbish....

    Daily mail at it also :(Temperatures are set to plunge in Britain next week with snow and gales bringing parts of the country to a standstill, forecasters warned today.Freezing weather sweeping in from the North Pole threatens to whip up freezing winds, winter storms and widespread frosts, it was predicted.Grrrr Edited by Stour7
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Tuesday is the only day next week which is showing the most wintery precipitation

     

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    These are the day time highs an ice day for some parts of Scotland, single figures UK wide

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Before we get to the cold spell we should have a fairly decent end to the week with temps around normal and high pressure keeping things quiet

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    By Saturday evening the change to cooler air is taking place for Scotland whilst the midlands south hangs on to the milder air for a few more hours

     

    Posted Image

     

    t84 sees the +8 850's leaving

     

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    Everything is lining up for a northerly

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    GFS is pretty much inline with its 06z run so far

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Grrrr

    More like BrrrrPosted Image Posted Image

     

    The models are really firming up now on a much colder spell through much if not all of next week with ice, snow and widespread frosts, this is no joke, bbc news 24 weather said it, cold spell here we come...The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is the most wintry it has been so far, lets hope we get a lot more of this in the weeks and months ahead.

     

    oooo look...the PFJ is having a late autumn holiday in spain this year

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    12z is bringing in the -4 850's quicker to a wider area in the north this afternoon

     

    Posted Image

     

    Compared to the 00z run

     

    Posted Image

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