Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[phil nw.]

A new thread then for the new month.

 

Now we are into the last third of Autumn the search for cold spells tends to ramp up amongst Winter fans so the outputs take on increasingly added interest for many members.

Early days yet and current outputs point to a continung Atlantic pattern for at least the first half of the month with only brief shots of somewhat colder air between bands of rain moving in off the Atlantic.

 

With this in mind please continue to respect all members views,even if the outlook is not what you are looking for.

 

Let's keep discussion around what the models actually show so we can keep this thread factual and informative for all,including visitors.

 

Casual chat about your dislikes or hopes about the charts should go here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 or general Winter discussion here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/

 

as well as all our threads available for talking about the different aspects of the weather both here and around the world.

 

Thanks everyone-- carry on posting when you are ready.

 

[Frosty.]

Like I said before the other thread was closed, the ecm 00z ens mean is not mild, it's actually rather chilly compared to what we have been used to and it's also very unsettled with no sign of the weather settling down, especially since the jet is angled wnw-ese which enables colder incursions at times, so where is all this very mild weather we are supposed to endure for the next 4 weeks then?

:- )

Edited November 1, 2013 by Frosty.

[Gibby]

Like I said before the other thread was closed, the ecm 00z ens mean is not mild, it's actually rather chilly compared to what we have been used to and it's also very unsettled with no sign of the weather settling down, especially since the jet is angled wnw-ese which enables colder incursions at times, so where is all this very mild weather we are supposed to endure for the next 4 weeks then?:- )

I think the Jet profile has changed somewhat over the last 24 hours model output. The tilting towards a more SW to NE flow with European high pressure has been muted today as the flow now looks maintaining a West to East or even as you say a WNW-ESE axis across  the UK next week which in turn continues to deliver strong wind and rain events and temperatures closer to average rather than well above.

[Frosty.]

I think the Jet profile has changed somewhat over the last 24 hours model output. The tilting towards a more SW to NE flow with European high pressure has been muted today as the flow now looks maintaining a West to East or even as you say a WNW-ESE axis across  the UK next week which in turn continues to deliver strong wind and rain events and temperatures closer to average rather than well above.

Yes Gibby i'm just calling it as I see it, the ecm 0z ens mean charts I posted on the previous thread, if anyone wants to have a look, is definately not what I would call mild, it's average temps or even lower at times, especially the further north you are with just a few moderately milder incursions across the southern half of the uk.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

Like I said before the other thread was closed, the ecm 00z ens mean is not mild, it's actually rather chilly compared to what we have been used to and it's also very unsettled with no sign of the weather settling down, especially since the jet is angled wnw-ese which enables colder incursions at times, so where is all this very mild weather we are supposed to endure for the next 4 weeks then?:- )

Yes quite cold air building north of 60N now Karl and if we look at 06zGFS single figure max.s are showing for Scotland and N.Ireland over the weekend as that colder Polar Maritime air moves in behind those fronts.

 

It does look like we may develop a north-south split in the next few days wrt temperatures -never quite as cold in the far south but with the mean jet running across the UK the north always more influenced by that colder air behind the rain bands.

 

The mean ECM 850hPa chart for day 8

 

suggests a flatter looking euro high than previously modeled -so you may have a point about the outlook in the medium term looking less mild shall we say.

[Frosty.]

Let's hope so phil, any crumbs of comfort for cold seekers is most welcome.

[forecaster]

EC32 tries to suggest a somewhat more NW flow for the last week of November, but not a strong signal. Prior to that, +ve heights nearby or to our south. 

[Frosty.]

Ecm 00z ens mean shows colder nw'ly winds later next week. :- )

[phil nw.]

The first taste of wintry weather for the far north of Scotland/N.Isles/highlands perhaps-- as early as T72hrs.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013110112/gfs-2-72.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013110112/gfs-1-72.png?12

 

snow in some of those showers over the mountains as a brief cold plunge digs in after the passage of the weekend low.

A continuing very mobile outlook generally.

Edited November 1, 2013 by phil nw.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Although I don't think its the start of something yet, but I think not enough is being made of this period from say Sun to Mon.  Its going to be cool at best and very heavy precip to come.  I highlighted charts the other day and they have continued to 'like' the feature/s fro Sun onwards after this initial LP crossing UK on Sat.

I'm pretty satisfied with the way Oct went and am fairly confident Nov will follow the idea. Disruptive week ahead prob through precip more than anything and will feel somewhat cool and maybe some wintry flavour to high ground?.  More flood concerns?

Saw the beeb forecast and there is serious precip coming and on top of what we have.....

 

 

 

BFTP  

Edited November 1, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models are fully supportive of a  very disturbed period lasting through the weekend and well into next week. Low pressure areas will trundle in and across the UK before moving away East late in the weekend. A small disturbance caught up on the polar front slips ESE on Monday giving Southern areas potential for some significant rain, given that the ground is currently saturated. A colder incursion of air is well supported for 12-24 hours as the Low and front exits East. Following hard on it's heels is a further trough attached to Low pressure well to the NW which carries rain and strong winds across the UK with a sunshine and showers weather type following in average temperatures. This keeps the weather pattern going into the middle of next week.

 

GFS then shows further changeable and windy weather at times though the South does become intercepted by a High pressure ridge from the South briefly later next week before rain and wind return for next weekend too.The second half of the run does show some drier periods lengthening as High pressure nudges up close to Southern Britain at times with light winds and overnight fog becoming an issue at times. However, the North would probably see further windy spells with outbreaks of rain as Low pressure crosses East to the North.

 

UKMO tonight keeps windy and unsettled weather going over and beyond the middle of next week with strong Westerly winds and troughs delivering ran quickly over the UK. They pass quickly though and would most likely be followed by a more showery regime in temperatures never far from average in the South but maybe a little colder than average in the North.

 

GEM this evening has a close resemblance to GFS at the same time juncture with the trend for High pressure from the South to infiltrate at least Southern Britain for a time later next week with a dry and rather cloudy WNW flow developing over Britain with more benign conditions than of late while never becoming very chilly.

 

NAVGEM is much more resilient against much in the way of High pressure from the South maintaining a strong West or WSW flow with rain at times in what would be very typical temperatures for early November.

 

ECM shows a very unsettled and windy week with storm potential at times before a toppling ridge of High pressure moves SE over the UK on Day 10 introducing a colder and quieter phase albeit probably brief with frost and fog patches overnight. 

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a relatively mild prospect for the next few weeks with rain and strong winds at times throughout.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing to move rapidly across the Atlantic and over the British Isles through the next week. Thereafter there still is a small degree of movement towards Northern Scotland possibly sufficient enough to lessen the power of the Atlantic monsoon at least for Southern Britain at times.

 

In Summary the weather remains very volatile over the UK as a strong Jet stream flows across the North Atlantic and the UK through the next week. Strong depressions to the North of the UK will continue to buffet most areas with strong winds reaching severe gale force at times and heavy rain too in temperatures close to average or a little above at times, though this offset by the strength of the wind. There are still some signs of rather drier weather moving across some areas later with less rainfall and temperatures remaining near average or somewhat colder, especially overnight when the risk of fog and frost by night might develop.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Not for the first time of late ECM shows high pressure edging in as we move towards the 2nd full week of November

 

 

ECM ensemble starting to show a rise in pressure over Spain, Portugal and France with this slowly moving towards the UK

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Biggin]

Can I ask what happened to the windy low forecast by the models bout 5 days ago ??

[Summer Sun]

Temperature anomalies for the next 8 days from GFS show a lot of the UK will be below normal with the exception of those midlands south and some locations on western coasts

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean, as per the 00z is looking very unsettled and windy at times with spells of heavy rain interspersed by clearer, showery days and temperatures as michael fish sometimes used to say on the bbc are nothing to write home about, if anything, it would be feeling on the chilly side for most of the time due to the strength of the winds and the fact it's sourced from north atlantic regions and occasionally polar maritime air makes inroads, the jet axis is generally wnw/ese and then eventually more of a direct w/e. The north of the uk would be coolest but even the south doesn't look particularly mild and in any case, the strong to gale force westerly winds would offset any mildness, the ecm ens mean shows no real sign of settling down, even by T+240 hours with low pressure dominant to the north/nw and high pressure remaining just out of reach to the south of the uk.

 

 

 

[The Ice Lord]

Temperature anomalies for the next 8 days from GFS show a lot of the UK will be below normal with the exception of those midlands south and some locations on ton western coasts

 

A substantial amount of Europe still above average......

[phil nw.]

Can I ask what happened to the windy low forecast by the models bout 5 days ago ??

It,s still on the way Biggin.

 

 

wet and windy at times for many areas over the weekend.

[Summer Sun]

A substantial amount of Europe still above average......

 

Indeed some places have temperatures 6c above normal.......

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think we are looking at the 2nd half of November at the earliest .

Very zonal as far as the eyes can see....

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z op run is generally very unsettled, windy at times and apart from a few moderately mild incursions across the south, temperatures look like struggling for much of the time and feeling distinctly chilly in the strong to gale force winds, sometimes just south of west and north of west, a few weak ridges rushing east which could bring an early frost on a few mornings next week and across northern hills, especially the higher hills & mountains of scotland, snow is likely at times, today is a good example of that with blizzards developing across the grampian mountains. It's a very disturbed pattern with the jet axis tending to be wnw-ese and the run ends on a very promising note for coldies with another nw'ly flow incoming. 

Edited November 2, 2013 by Frosty.

[That ECM]

The Ecm 00z op run is generally very unsettled, windy at times and apart from a few moderately mild incursions across the south, temperatures look like struggling for much of the time and feeling distinctly chilly in the strong to gale force winds, sometimes just south of west and north of west, a few weak ridges rushing east which could bring an early frost on a few mornings next week and across northern hills, especially the higher hills & mountains of scotland, snow is likely at times, today is a good example of that with blizzards developing across the grampian mountains. It's a very disturbed pattern with the jet axis tending to be wnw-ese and the run ends on a very promising note for coldies with another nw'ly flow incoming. 

I admire your positive outlook for cold Frosty. I think the output is similar from start to finish with only variations on a theme. The theme being a west flow, plenty of rain, with the odd drier spell. Other than the normal places ie mountains of the north, seeing little in the way of wintry precipitation. I appreciate it's the start of the hunt for cold for many of us and there is a long time to go but as of yet I can see little of interest in that way.

[Ian Brown]

I admire your positive outlook for cold Frosty. I think the output is similar from start to finish with only variations on a theme. The theme being a west flow, plenty of rain, with the odd drier spell. Other than the normal places ie mountains of the north, seeing little in the way of wintry precipitation. I appreciate it's the start of the hunt for cold for many of us and there is a long time to go but as of yet I can see little of interest in that way.

 

Yes, it is carry on zonality for the forseeable, I just hope that the GFS in FI comes off and we can get a mid-latitude High to give us a break from the wind and rain.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 00z shows temperatures below normal for all but the far south, west wales and the south west for the next 8 days

 

Edited November 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The Ecm 00z op run is generally very unsettled, windy at times and apart from a few moderately mild incursions across the south, temperatures look like struggling for much of the time and feeling distinctly chilly in the strong to gale force winds, sometimes just south of west and north of west, a few weak ridges rushing east which could bring an early frost on a few mornings next week and across northern hills, especially the higher hills & mountains of scotland, snow is likely at times, today is a good example of that with blizzards developing across the grampian mountains. It's a very disturbed pattern with the jet axis tending to be wnw-ese and the run ends on a very promising note for coldies with another nw'ly flow incoming.

Frosty why can't we just be honest with what the charts are pointing to? It is not a very promising note for coldies. The facts are we are facing at least 10 days of zonal express . Rather than looking at something that will change on the next run at the very end of fi lets look at what we know. We have a strong vortex , high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north , a strong jet stream, and strong solar activity , things can and do change of course , but for now, it's nothing other than autumnal weather , ie , blustery and unsettled

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes, it is carry on zonality for the forseeable, I just hope that the GFS in FI comes off and we can get a mid-latitude High to give us a break from the wind and rain.

its certainly getting a slighty bit more intresting and the reason why notice lower heights are working hard in southern Europe there certainly a more westerly type which means more average.

and more chance for cold behind systems as they pass through.

I think we can expect a couple more weeks of zonal type but possible settling towards the end of November into December could we get high setting up over uk then perhaps migrating in a more favoured area.

[Polar Maritime]

Frosty why can't we just be honest with what the charts are pointing to? It is not a very promising note for coldies. The facts are we are facing at least 10 days of zonal express . Rather than looking at something that will change on the next run at the very end of fi lets look at what we know. We have a strong vortex , high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north , a strong jet stream, and strong solar activity , things can and do change of course , but for now, it's nothing other than autumnal weather , ie , blustery and unsettled

 

Frosty only post's what the charts are showing at any given time. That has always been the case.