Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Summer Sun]

It's a shame there doesn't seem to be colder air to tap into, because these are some very nice synoptics on the ECM. Interesting model watching ahead for sure.

 

There is no sign of eastern Europe cooling down yet either to give us a bitter easterly there still 2 to 4c above average in places

 

Up-to and including 21st November

 

[Chris K]

There is no sign of eastern Europe cooling down yet either to give us a bitter easterly there still 2 to 4c above average in places

Up-to and including 21st November

But as stated earlier, if you get the right pattern in place those temps across land will fall away quickly.

Anyway...we got to wait and see if todays runs actually come to fruition first...

[Snowman.]

There is no sign of eastern Europe cooling down yet either to give us a bitter easterly there still 2 to 4c above average in places

 

Up-to and including 21st November

 

Notice how the cold is coming in from the north.

[swfc]

Anyone worrying over the 850s towards the end of the ecm shoudnt!look to the north east and if that run varified the resulting push nnw of the high would be a fantastic sight.Great mo so far today and trending in the right direction

[Mr Frost]

Let's leave the -10 to -12 uppers for December, January and February. :-D

Fantastic output from all models with regards to a wee bonus cold snap before Winter officially begins!

[draztik]

 

From t192, an easterly is established on the ECM det.

Edited November 13, 2013 by draztik

[bluearmy]

It's November - the continent to our east is not cold . It will not take very long once a colder flow is established from the north. Land cools very quickly at this time of year. The sun has little strength.

[johnholmes]

There is no sign of eastern Europe cooling down yet either to give us a bitter easterly there still 2 to 4c above average in places

 

Up-to and including 21st November

 

 

 

I am unable to think of a 'bitter easterly' as you call it this early in November at all?

But as ba has just posted the inland continent does not take long to cool down once it starts, say late November onwards

Edited November 13, 2013 by johnholmes

[ANYWEATHER]

Stonking Ecm at t+168, plenty of instability with cold air aloft snow for high ground, even for the south, and given enough heavier  precip [evaporative cooling]  wintry mixes and even snow to low ground!  Of course this is so far out and subject to a lot of changes, but the trend at the moment is there......

Edited November 13, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[LomondSnowstorm]

The 12Z reminds me a little of this (only a little mind):

 

 

 

 

But of course that was only the beginning, and just five days later:

 

 

 

And the rest is history.

Now I'm emphatically NOT saying we're going to see anything like the depth of cold we saw then (certainly it would be foolish at this stage to make any firm prounouncements beyond +144), but my point is, if we do end up with sustained blocking in the right place, a chunk of the vortex is liable to drop into mid-latitudes and then we're in business.

[nick sussex]

I think the ECM deserves one of these, my first of the season! Okay a bit over the top, its not the wintriest of runs but certainly festive. I think the key here is squeezing every last bit of amplification out of the upstream pattern before this flattens out somewhat. We should also bear in mind that once the cold gets into Europe at this time of year the landmass cools rapidly.

 

Overall a decent trend developing and as long as low heights remain anchored over northern Italy then that precludes any milder conditions, thereafter we will have to wait and see whether theres any retrogression of the high.

[gottolovethisweather]

There is no sign of eastern Europe cooling down yet either to give us a bitter easterly there still 2 to 4c above average in places

 

Up-to and including 21st November

 

 

Loving these charts the more and more I look at them lately Gav. Will they look something akin to November 2010 by month end I wonder. Notice I didn't say December as that'd be plainly ridiculous. My feet are firmly on the ground but the media are waking up to the changes afoot and I'm not talking about trashy newspapers. Thanks to IBTH for an earlier post, which noted the potential similarities concerning the NH pattern to that epic five week spell just three years ago.

Edited November 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Paul]

Come on folks, if you see a post you think is a problem just report it please - replying in the thread just adds to any issues.

[Gaz1985]

There is no sign of eastern Europe cooling down yet either to give us a bitter easterly there still 2 to 4c above average in places

 

Up-to and including 21st November

 

 

Quite an unusual chart that - it's usually the opposite way round, it's like west and east have swapped , just shows how potentially cold it may get next week onwards for western Europe. I think another 2-3 days and things will firm up even more.

Edited November 13, 2013 by Gaz1985

[pip22]

 Yes. We could be the coldest place in Europe by this time next week while the east still under the grip of mild mush I think.

Edited November 13, 2013 by pip22

[Snowman.]

Anyone who's been on Daily Mail forums before knows what this guy about, he's definitely one for the ignore list.

Yes was just about to say this he is a regular on the Daily Mail forum topic which has very little moderation, he obviously isn't here to contribute to the Model Discussion and claims under does everything, him and a few others are the main reason why I left that board and joined due to constant moderation and actually weather based website.

 

ECM is going for what I believe pressure will drop as the High shifts NW as a low undercuts meeting with a low moving through Europe wrapped in cold uppers meeting over the channel with unstable air across the UK this will be a short cold spell probably feeling very wintry.

 

Sort of like this but no Shortwave south of Greenland.

 

[NorthernRab]

 Yes. We could be the coldest place in Europe by this time next week while the east still under the grip of mild mush I think.

 

Those are anomaly charts - England won't be the coldest place in Europe. It'll certainly be darn cold for the time of year, just no that cold

Edited November 13, 2013 by NorthernRab

[Frosty.]

If carlsberg did Ecm & Ukmo runs, this is what it would look like..The Arctic cometh to the uk next week, even darren bett mentioned snow and ice so it now feels real, they are not just eye candy charts anymore, they have real substance and there is every chance that the charts will look even better as the models continue to firm up and fine tune the output with regard to the depth of cold and longevity aspects. November was supposed to be a write off month of mild mush but now it looks like we will see some slush..some parts of the uk will have a covering of snow next week and frosts will become sharp, the Ecm 12z thickness charts are stunning, they show the 522 dam line digging well south so winter is coming early this year, the first of hopefully many arctic blasts and maybe a beast from the east in december is possible, I can hardly wait for next week now, this is why I love model watching so much, it's a rush when we get charts like these..I almost forgot the Gem 12z..nice reload there...ENJOY IT FOLKS   

Edited November 13, 2013 by Frosty.

[Matty M]

When did the ECMWF hide the Ensemble panels?

 

Pretty tight of them really.

[weatherguy]

Remember that colder uppers easing towards the end of the run doesn't matter in the slightest: the "wet" northerly airflow is replaced with a dry continental airflow...We saw what could happen last March with any upper temps below 0c off a continental feed.  Dew points will generally drop by T+0 anyway so no need to worry about those uppers at this stage, we see the same worries every year

 

Cracking run from the ECM, and it appears the models are starting to reach some sort of agreement as to the evolution, UKMO and ECM in particular. 

 

Another thing to add: As we suck those "warm" uppers in eastern europe away, we help our long term prospects as those deeply cold uppers from that segment of PV which moves to siberia should rush to fill in.  

Edited November 13, 2013 by weatherguy

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby on the models

 

All models show a cold front crossing England and Wales this evening and tonight, clearing the SE by morning. A band of rain will clear to showers and rather cold air. Through tomorrow pressure builds and a ridge develops across the UK on Thursday night and Friday with the risk of a frost tomorrow night. On Friday milder Atlantic air will creep around the Northern flank of High pressure to the SW with most of Friday and Saturday ending up benign and rather cloudy with moderate Westerly winds and little if any rain or sunshine and average temperatures. On Sunday the weather remains rather cloudy and a band of rain will slip South across the UK through the day.

 

GFS then shows the start of next week with a cold northerly flow setting in with wintry showers flooding down from the North for a time. Temperatures will fall below average and as a ridge of High pressure pushes in from the West frosts at night will become more notable and sharp. However, milder air will again filter around the Northern flank of High pressure down to the SW with cloudy skies and a moderate West wind alternating with further incursions of colder and potentially wintry showery air at times, at least over the North.

 

UKMO shows a deepening and cold Northerly flow moving down from the North on Tuesday with wintry showers in the North extending to all areas with snow to lower levels in the North and even the chance of seeing some over Southern hills too above 1000ft or so.

 

GEM shows a cold Northerly developing early next week with wintry showers over Northern, Eastern and Western coasts with a lot of dry weather inland with some frosty nights. Little change then is shown in this overall pattern out to Day 10 with frosty nights and daytime temperatures remaining on the low side of average for all with the continued risk of wintry showers in the East.

 

NAVGEM also shows a cool off next week but with less power to any Northerly feed. Instead Low pressure down to the SW and up to the NE allows a weak ridge to be maintained over the UK from mid Atlantic with cold and frosty weather likely with some freezing fog patches possible too.

 

ECM tonight shows a cold Northerly plunge at the beginning of the week with some rain followed by wintry showers with snow over the hills. As the run lngthens High pressure to the NW moves in closer to the NW with frosty cold conditions here. In the South Low pressure over Europe maintains a chilly Easterly or NE flow with rain or sleet in places.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a sharp fall in uppers after the next three or four days. This though is steadily eroded away to more average uppers when taken as the pack. High pressure is the dominant factor and the catalyst to feed milder Atlantic winds across the UK between colder polar air phases with some rain on the boundary fronts at times.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow riding high ver the Atlantic and over Iceland currently. Later in the weekend and next week it dives South from the Iceland area and down over or to the West of the UK. Beyond that there is some suggestion that a more Southerly tracking Jet could maintain rather colder conditions near the British Isles.

 

In Summary tonight the theme of colder weather is strengthening as each day passes. GFS only goes for a short cold shot before milder air infiltrates around a High to the SW and over the British Isles. All other models go for something rather more sustained with a cold northerly spell giving way to the possibility of a more NE feed across the South as High pressure builds to the NW cutting any Atlantic attack off. In reality I still feel that several days of cold and unsettled weather when some may see some snow will eventually be transferred into a High pressure based pattern, it centred somewhere near the UK giving widespread frost and fog problems and largely dry weather.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[UV-RAY]

Lol Frosty, that must have hurt Mr Bett having to deliver such bad news. Some fantastic charts for cold lovers and they just keep on upgrading, give it another few days and we maybe seeing a Greenland high in FI.  

[Gavin Hannah]

Lol Frosty, that must have hurt Mr Bett having to deliver such bad news. Some fantastic charts for cold lovers and they just keep on upgrading, give it another few days and we maybe seeing a Greenland high in FI.  

 

Already had one on the 06z remember?   It was the second last image though lol.  But you're right. If we can get LP up the west side of Greenland later on, it could allow a Greenland high to develop. (Don't ask me to go into specifics lol) 

[bluearmy]

op and ens ecm in pretty good broad agreement out to day 10

[Matty M]

Yep, ECMWF mean pretty good.

 

Solid agreement with the OP.

 

Towards the end of the run the OP actually becomes a bit of a mild outlier for Dublin however this may just because other runs suggest high pressure domination, severe frosts and cold days.

Edited November 13, 2013 by Matty M