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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

UKMO has finally rolled out

 

post-7073-0-08804200-1384362782_thumb.gi

 

Vortex looking nicely split, though the low pressure moving N/NE on the Western flank of our Atlantic high could cause problems if the model went out further. Ideally we'd want it to move North towards Canada giving WAA into Greenland.

 

Not a bad run though.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

Ukmo 144

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Yes - T180 to T240 is where to watch. The first cold shot is just that - a shot, and probably fairly dry inland - but if a GH rebuilds afterwards, it could bring a ton of cold down. Awaiting ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Yes Its what happens after next week, which grabs my attention, the models have yet to develop it though (BOM being the closest)...

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

t144 ukmo not bad at all and im getting frustrated I cant post charts although height energy getting up to southern Greenland its still to far south we need higher heights or the core of higher heights futher into Greenland.

 

lastnight nick sussex made some good posts about amplification in lows coming out of the eastern seaboard theres also the added complication of the polar jet and lower heights needed into Europe south of the uk or se Europe.

 

although this is a building trend I do sense there could be disappointment after the first cold attack.

 

the gem is still much more exciting.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

A predictably nice UKMO at +144, although I'm sure we've had the problem before of the UKMO advertising an evolution which is 'too clean to be true'. That doesn't seem to be entirely the case this time, with that low Daniel pointed out perhaps causing just a slight pause for thought, but unlike on the GFS the  heights build right into the Arctic and the vortex looks in a pretty fragile state:

Posted Image

 

Good  consistency with the 00Z too.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

t144 ukmo not bad at all and im getting frustrated I cant post charts although height energy getting up to southern Greenland its still to far south we need higher heights or the core of higher heights futher into Greenland.

 

lastnight nick sussex made some good posts about amplification in lows coming out of the eastern seaboard theres also the added complication of the polar jet and lower heights needed into Europe south of the uk or se Europe.

 

although this is a building trend I do sense there could be disappointment after the first cold attack.

 

the gem is still much more exciting.

 

The first heights were never expected to build into Greenland, the initial high pressure build Northwards is going to topple, I think just about everyone on here is expecting that. The low heights over europe though will prevent it sinking South of the UK.

 

What's likely is we'll see heights topple over the UK but remaining more across Northern parts before it fizzles away into Scandinavia, meanwhile we see energy coming through Southern Greenland allowing a second area of high pressure to build more strongly Northwards into Greenland.

 

The second bout of cold is where the main interest lies, the first bout of cold may bring some snowfall on the back edge as the front pushes Southwards, but otherwise wintry weather confined to Northern and Western coastal areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

t144 ukmo not bad at all and im getting frustrated I cant post charts although height energy getting up to southern Greenland its still to far south we need higher heights or the core of higher heights futher into Greenland.lastnight nick sussex made some good posts about amplification in lows coming out of the eastern seaboard theres also the added complication of the polar jet and lower heights needed into Europe south of the uk or se Europe.although this is a building trend I do sense there could be disappointment after the first cold attack.the gem is still much more exciting.

UKMO not bad, it's wonderful if cold is your thing. Look at the pressure to the nw of the uk! Let's hope ECM follows UKMO. Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Just noticed how synoptically top notch the 0z EC was, especially in comparison to recent suites.

UKMO 12z looked good as well, time to see whether the EC 12z can keep up any NWP momentum- anything akin to the 0z would be good, as such a solution moving into a more reliable timeframe can only be a good thing. I think a NW/N flow, turning NE, before high pressure builds is likely. What happens after is up for grabs, but I think after this wknd, the likelyhood for it to turn colder is very much on- just, how cold.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

we really do want the ecm to be the right model I can honestly say frosty has every reason to ramp up the ecm its absolutely the chart for prolonged cold and reload situation but some reason I think it looks far to messy to be correct but I eat my hat my computer keyboard the wroks if it turns out to be correct.

 

and I had not looked at the ecm today until just now and its beautiful.

now I think its worth running through most of the top models over the last few days just to see where possibly we could be heading.

 

but a cold shot is a cert but cold spell is still very much in the balance.

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt

I just hope that this little low pocket that apeared on the ECM and now METO doesnt develop into something stronger. In which case we may only have cold for 1 day because although we do have a high in the Atlantic, with the greatest respect to it, it is a pretty feeble high and it would take much at all to destroy it. 


They need a new technician at the UKMO.Posted Image 

 

How To Fix Broken Computer 

 

 

 

Cross polar heights on that ukmo 144 hrs chart.

 

Ooft. She's a cracker

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

ican honestly say the ukmo model is really building a good rep as over the year and months its really been very spot on and not just because of the cold output really starting to enjoy watching the ukmo model and the fact it only goes out to t144 just makes it that little bit more less stressfull.

 

I do agree though the ukmo makes it look very simplistic but the gfs is a rather stress realated model.

but then although the ecm this morning shows a thing of beauty for coldies it does look far more messy than the gfs and that's saying something.

Edited by model rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Really nice UKMO which doesn't have that energy spilling over the top like the GFS, shame we don't get to see the 168hrs. Even with the UKMO probably toppling the ridge over the top with low heights over northern Italy it could be very interesting!

 

It's over to the ECM now to see what that does, hopefully it continues with the good trend of the UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt

ican honestly say the ukmo model is really building a good rep as over the year and months its really been very spot on and not just because of the cold output really starting to enjoy watching the ukmo model and the fact it only goes out to t144 just makes it that little bit more less stressfull.

 

I do agree though the ukmo makes it look very simplistic but the gfs is a rather stress realated model.

but then although the ecm this morning shows a thing of beauty for coldies it does look far more messy than the gfs and that's saying something.

 

But thats what makes the GFS so much fun and (deep down) everyones favourite model. Imagine how boring it would be on here with only a steady, level headed, models going to 120 or 144. Nah not for me.

I love the drunkard, slightly mentally unhinged but sometime brilliant Nostradamous character that is, the GFSPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

feeble its not feeble at 1030mb its just we need it pumped futher north.

last jan I think there was a cold spell and the heights were in scandi area the mb were lower on this and it took a lot of shifting but would be beautiful to see a 1050 or 1060mb block like 09/10 winter now that's heights.

 

not likely though so we need to work on what we have right now and for just past mid November its certainly a start.

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Really nice UKMO which doesn't have that energy spilling over the top like the GFS, shame we don't get to see the 168hrs. Even with the UKMO probably toppling the ridge over the top with low heights over northern Italy it could be very interesting!

 

It's over to the ECM now to see what that does, hopefully it continues with the good trend of the UKMO.

UKMO has potential for something very very nice down the line Nick.

Lets hope its on to something!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

feeble its not feeble at 1030mb its just we need it pumped futher north.

last jan I think there was a cold spell and the heights were in scandi area the mb were lower on this and it took a lot of shifting but would be beautiful to see a 1050 or 1060mb block like 09/10 winter now that's heights.

 

not likely though so we need to work on what we have right now and for just past mid November its certainly a start.

Good point.remember glacier point saying dont always look for the yellows and oranges when looking for blocking"nearly put apples then"!!!It happened last winter and did deliver even tho the mb readings were not massive.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Northelies don't last long, there will be some sort of toppling and cutting off of the cold uppers. It's what happens afterwards and I would still be sceptical about a true Greenland High coming into fruition. 

 

Anybody who watched the GFS last winter will know of it's obsession with pushing the jet into Scandinavia with pressure rising to the South. 

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