Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[SMU]

As expected the GFS 12z is a great deal more amplified that the lowly 06z

 

Could be a good run from the GFS!

S

[Snowy L]

Stronger Iberian low, could be so important for a reload.

[radiohead]

Quite cold at T144. -10 uppers in Scotland.

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

As expected the GFS 12z is a great deal more amplified that the lowly 06z

 

Could be a good run from the GFS!

S

Looks very similar ro the 06z to me?

[Yarmy]

Better amplification across the whole NH...

 

[Panayiotis]

As expected the GFS 12z is a great deal more amplified that the lowly 06z

 

Could be a good run from the GFS!

S

Yes the 06z in my opinion is the worst out of the 4 GFS runs. As for snow the Ireland/Scotland, the west and south-west bode well from these northerly setups (like they saw in 2005) as convection in Celtic Sea kicks off showers. This is shown perfectly on the chart below:

Edited November 13, 2013 by Panayiotis

[SE Blizzards]

Lovely Jubbly!

 

Brrrrr!!!!

 

 

[SMU]

Looks very similar ro the 06z to me?

 

that's because your looking at the UK

[bsnowy]

Its still a pretty transient affair in terms of the very cold air that is across the UK, if the high were to move over and centre itself over the UK after the original cold blast then it could have turned frosty and foggy, unlike with the likely scenario of NW/W air stream.  However, over the medium term conditions look good for potential cold blasts.

[Stour7]

More like Brrrr

The models are really firming up now on a much colder spell through much if not all of next week with ice, snow and widespread frosts, this is no joke, bbc news 24 weather said it, cold spell here we come...The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is the most wintry it has been so far, lets hope we get a lot more of this in the weeks and months ahead.

oooo look...the PFJ is having a late autumn holiday in spain this year

Yes indeed frosty, I have followed this thread for the last 2years, have learnt a lot from more learned posters like yourself, can't make head or tail of charts yet but still do find the whole forum very intersting, & yes my comment is not particularly model related, but then in way it is, because I'm learning.......

N

[Dancerwithwings]

Quite cold at T144. -10 uppers in Scotland.

 

Even -9  850hpa down here

 

Edited November 13, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111312/gfsnh-0-186.png?12

 

THis is the real discussion point- whether the GFS can resolve the split energy over western Greenland & the area of vorticity around 500 miles south of Greenland-

 

On the 'correct' runs they split & allow the Canadian low to move north with vertical advection across Greenland- however the GFS may try & incorrectly phase them together & flatten the lot-

 

its really simples as that- the GFS has better separation that the 06z so its catching up slowly- all be it in an area where not many people are looking- but at 186 its low res will probably phase them-

 

give the GFS 12z another 48 hours......

 

PHASE 2 of cold is this really- separation of energy = new high pressure @ 216-240

 

S

Edited November 13, 2013 by Steve Murr

[The Northern Ramper]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111312/gfsnh-0-186.png?12 THis is the real discussion point- whether the GFS can resolve the split energy over western Greenland & the area of vorticity around 500 miles south of Greenland- On the 'correct' runs they split & allow the Canadian low to move north with vertical advection across Greenland- however the GFS may try & incorrectly phase them together & flatten the lot- its really simples as that- the GFS has been separation that the 06z so its catching up slowly- all be it in an area where not many people are looking PHASE 2 of cold is this really- separation of energy = new high pressure @ 216-240 S

I remember this exact scenario from previous years.

[Snowy L]

Looks like we're going to get high pressure moving into Greenland in FI again. We need to keep an eye on that Atlantic high that joins in after our toppled high of the initial cold spell.

[swfc]

Pv very close to splitting imo.nh charts are getting very intriguing and this run does show much more amplification ie ecm.fascinating stuff here!!

[Summer Sun]

After the cold snap milder air and high pressure returns

 

 

Colder air tries to get in again as we end Autumn but it can't fully manage it

 

 

A 2 or 3 day cold snap looks very likely next week before a return to something more normal if GFS is correct

Edited November 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Yarmy]

Pv very close to splitting imo.nh charts are getting very intriguing and this run does show much more amplification ie ecm.fascinating stuff here!!

 

A common theme of the paint splatter low rez GFS has been the polar vortex getting a bit of a kicking. Not sure I buy the 'look for broad trends' stuff said about the latter stages of the GFS, but make of it what you will.

[Snowman.]

From the Strat you can see the core cold moving east away from Greenland allowing heights to build also cooling at the core as it does.

 

GFS FI shows us some hope for an Artic high to form first run to show this.

 

Apart from that the GFS FI is fairly poor as there is lack of cold air to the NE.

[Frosty.]

Compared to the weather we have seen so far this autumn, the GFS 12z op in high res is a carlsberg run with Bitterly cold arctic air for the time of year sweeping south during monday and especially by tues/wed..snow showers also pushing south and icy road conditions with widespread sharp frosts. Through the low res there is a less cold blip but further reloads from the northwest occur, we are seeing proper wintry charts and it's still autumn so treat this as a BONUS before winter even starts. I expect upgrades in the cold and longevity as time goes on. 

[Gavin Hannah]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111312/gfsnh-0-186.png?12

 

THis is the real discussion point- whether the GFS can resolve the split energy over western Greenland & the area of vorticity around 500 miles south of Greenland-

 

On the 'correct' runs they split & allow the Canadian low to move north with vertical advection across Greenland- however the GFS may try & incorrectly phase them together & flatten the lot-

 

its really simples as that- the GFS has better separation that the 06z so its catching up slowly- all be it in an area where not many people are looking- but at 186 its low res will probably phase them-

 

give the GFS 12z another 48 hours......

 

PHASE 2 of cold is this really- separation of energy = new high pressure @ 216-240

 

S

 

 

The 12Z has removed the north bound LP from this run altogether which is bad news for any sort of Greenie down the line. 

 

Overall, the GFS is fairly firm on the next 5 maybe 7 days. The next 2 weeks are going to be very exciting. The evolving pattern is very similar to Nov/Dev 2010 and, I don't about everyone else, but I'm remaining quietly excited.

 

[Summer Sun]

Maybe some snow for Dartmoor mid next week

 

 

Monday evening and more so Tuesday is when the bulk of the wintery stuff is on shown especially for those in Scotland

 

 

The bulk of Scotland struggles to get into positive digits on Tuesday, everywhere struggles with temperatures though the far south west may get to 8c

 

Edited November 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

The 12Z has removed the north bound LP from this run altogether which is bad news for any sort of Greenie down the line. 

 

Overall, the GFS is fairly firm on the next 5 maybe 7 days. The next 2 weeks are going to be very exciting. The evolving pattern is very similar to Nov/Dev 2010 and, I don't about everyone else, but I'm remaining quietly excited.

 

 

The 0z ECM is a good run but can it be replicated on the 12z? If it is then I think Steve may well be right that the GFS is up to its old tricks and will probably take another 48 hrs, at least, for it to 'catch up'

[garbagebags]

It does look like a great wee spell coming. But to be fair it will be rather, if not very, short lived. 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

It does look like a great wee spell coming. But to be fair it will be rather, if not very, short lived. 

I'll be very suprised if the relatively warm sea doesn't create instability in any northerly airflow at this time of year but essentially very dry and very cold for a while next week looks odds on.

[nick sussex]

The painfully slow climb down from the GFS continues, NOAA commented for several days regarding what happens with the polar jet in terms of axis and possible interaction with southern stream energy, we can see now the big difference as these phase upstream and produce that more amplified wave which in turn helps the high a little further north.However it becomes a little too flat after that as it drives more energy over the top.Sadly the rest of the outputs haven't shown up, the UKMO would have been good to see, whats up with this, it seems to be getting later and later each day.

Edited November 13, 2013 by nick sussex