Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Frosty.]

But little or no cold air to tap into.Still,Europe would cool down very nicely as we head towards December.

At least the synoptics look wintry, no mild mush for a change.

[swfc]

At least the Gfs 06z op run shows cold weather bossing the outlook for a change, cold spells and mild blips instead of the other way around and those FI charts are gradually morphing into a potentially much more wintry retrogressing pattern, nov/dec 2010?

Indeed frosty.For me the 6z looses it way at the 162 hr mark but the usual fi random charts! Id go with ecm up to the cold -cool spell next week"esp the ens" but i dont see the hlb showing up just yet but anything can and will happen

[karlos1983]

Who would of thought we would be seeing this roll out 10 days ago, deep deep Fl, but WOW  

 

[Gavin Hannah]

Who would of thought we would be seeing this roll out 10 days ago, deep deep Fl, but WOW

 

 

 

Would that be a split vortex in FI??

[SMU]

Morning

Interesting - the word toppler seems to have disapeared from the tips of peoples tongues today ....

Even the lowly GFS seems to be working it out-

Cause for optimism this morning as the euros continue to hold the block to the north west before the ECM starts to show its hand with some retrogression to greenland-

All in all pretty much what was forecast 2 days ago all be it with the silly interuptions from the GFS

S

[garbagebags]

Don't want to be a party pooper but should individual frames way out in FI not really be posted in the ramping thread?

[Snowmadsam]

Don't want to be a party pooper but should individual frames way out in FI not really be posted in the ramping thread?

 

They are still part of the models, people just like to speculate about what may happen, hence the title Model Discussion

[SomeLikeItHot]

ECM London ensembles are very cold to the 27th - mean stays below 5 degrees in london!

 

Note how far the GFS 0z was out of line with this. An outlier on its own ensembles largely also.

 

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM London ensembles are very cold to the 27th - mean stays below 5 degrees in london!

 

Note how far the GFS 0z was out of line with this. An outlier on its own ensembles largely also.

 

 

Yes,i did mention i was ignoring the 0z GFS as it seemed out of kilter with its suite.

I suggest the ECM and its ensembles are actually favouring a pretty direct northerly or NNWly with those kind of temps for London.With a North westerly London would probably not be quite as cold being sheltered from the wind....

[SMU]

Right there ^^ is why anyone using the GFS should re-evaluate what model they choose to follow

At day 10-13 not 1 of the 50 ECM members goes that mild with the clustering some 8 degrees colder.

GFS. Its over

Also theres a cobra run in there ( nov 2010 ) where the max at day 13 is -3 and the minima below-5..

[Gavin Hannah]

Right there ^^ is why anyone using the GFS should re-evaluate what model they choose to follow

At day 10-13 not 1 of the 50 ECM members goes that mild with the clustering some 8 degrees colder.

GFS. Its over

Also theres a cobra run in there ( nov 2010 ) where the max at day 13 is -3 and the minima below-5..

 

But it does produce some spectacular Eye candy lol.  

[Frosty.]

Lots of support for the incoming Arctic blast early next week on the GEFS 06z perturbations, including the op and control run, some more bullish than others and the GEFS 06z mean looks good if you like cold weather. I think reloads of cold weather are likely in the weeks ahead.

[Mapantz]

Right there ^^ is why anyone using the GFS should re-evaluate what model they choose to followAt day 10-13 not 1 of the 50 ECM members goes that mild with the clustering some 8 degrees colder.GFS. Its over

 

That insinuates that the ECM is correct. Wouldn't that be foolish considering the events haven't occurred yet?

[Mark Neal.]

Having just viewed the GFS and saw FI, i know many don't rate the GFS and especially viewing FI, but it is also related to anytime within the reliable, if we do get a favourable flow from the East, the models aren't showing that much cold air to the East, so our chances of anything wintry from that direction would be limited? Would certainly be colder, i guess with Sea temps in North Sea it would aid convection still? 

[Purga]

Well, a good end to the 06z GFS

 

A pressure profile like that would open up some longer term cold potential but the problem is

A) It's far out in FI

B) It's the 06z GFS which I understand is pretty useless isn't it?

[Summer Sun]

Having just viewed the GFS and saw FI, i know many don't rate the GFS and especially viewing FI, but it is also related to anytime within the reliable, if we do get a favourable flow from the East, the models aren't showing that much cold air to the East, so our chances of anything wintry from that direction would be limited? Would certainly be colder, i guess with Sea temps in North Sea it would aid convection still? 

 

Parts of eastern Europe are seeing temperatures 2 to 4c above average currently

 

[Mark Neal.]

Parts of eastern Europe are seeing temperatures 2 to 4c above average currently

 

 

Yep i have noticed that, i guess we would want Europe to cool down before we see a potential sustained cold spell, just to be picky!  My question is viewing some output, if we do get an easterly flow will the difference in Sea temps, produce some convection and turn things wintry within showers etc..? I know its minor features that change things like this and is in FI, could be seen to be almost pointless..

[SMU]

Heres a watch for the next 48 hours- ( 192-228 in modelling times)

 

keep an eye in this area circled in red

 

 

 

this was the entry to the cold spell in Nov 2010- witj the ECM picking up the signal at about day 9-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=13&mois=11&annee=2010&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1

 

Interestingly the NAVGEM has hints there-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013111300/navgemnh-0-180.png?13-06

 

but the more important ECM at day 10

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111300/ECH1-240.GIF?13-12

 

 

Its just a WEAK signal but for anyone wanting something more substantial this is where to look-

 

This is from the GFS 06z & this is what happens if ^^ that happens...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0  - 204 & 216 being the key timeframes

 

 

S

Edited November 13, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Dancerwithwings]

GFS forecast for today was this chart 384h, That was on the 28th october.

 

 

And today this in 5 days time, I know its 5 days out but the GFS was on to something........ pretty similar don't you think.

[Mark Neal.]

GFS forecast for today was this chart 384h, That was on the 28th october.

 

 

And today this in 5 days time, I know its 5 days out but the GFS was on to something........ pretty similar don't you think.

 

Similar, but 5 days apart? They say charts get pushed back into FI, maybe its true 

Interestingly the ensembles seem to be trending colder,The Met office forecasters are talking of taste of winter next week, so maybe more people waking upto something more wintry now.

[Frosty.]

Perturbation 12..GEFS 06z has a very nov/dec 2010 look about it, and there are plenty more with arctic reloads. 

[bluearmy]

That insinuates that the ECM is correct. Wouldn't that be foolish considering the events haven't occurred yet?

 

that depends how long the gfs takes to fall into broad agreement with the ecm. if it doesnt then the eventual solution beyond the initial trough dropping in is likely to be somewhere inbetween.

[Dancerwithwings]

Similar, but 5 days apart? They say charts get pushed back into FI, maybe its true 

Good point, If it tends to be that way(Charts get pushed back into FI) Them charts show witness to that

[ronan]

Perturbation 12..GEFS 06z has a very nov/dec 2010 look about it, and there are plenty more with arctic reloads. 

 

Frosty i really love your enthusiasm. 5 days ago i said that the charts have a flavour of 2010 about them and i got jumped on like a tonne of bricks by someone saying that i would need to wise up and that this winter will be nothing like 2010!! That's why i rarely post in this section! Anyway there are some tasty looking charts being thrown up by all models so we shall wait and see but the signs and building blocks have been there with each run the past 2 weeks so i think we can say for sure that something cold is on the way! I for one would rather have reload after reload from the N/NW!

[johnholmes]

I struggle to see rampant zonality on the charts you show?

A brief Northerly and then back to rampant zonality according to GFS 0z

 

Plus point though is the low heights developing over Europe.

Edited November 13, 2013 by johnholmes