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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Just a little reminder - this is the model thread - for model related discussion.

 

(Not for a flood of gif images, not for general weather chat, not for one liners that just add nothing or other none model related chat)

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garbagebags Enthusiast

garbagebags

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
Posted

It's looking a bit flatter on the 18Z GFS compared to the 12Z at T144.

 

Posted Image

 

 

My thoughts exactly. A lot flatter. T850's not suffering yet. I fear they will though...

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

It going to be weird going from a chilly Thursday to a positively warm Firday. (Just a little something while we wait...)

Posted Image

 

The ECM 12z for Saturday has +12 uppers for parts of northern UK.

 

 

 

Could be a long wait to see those sorts of values again!

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

It's looking a bit flatter on the 18Z GFS compared to the 12Z at T144.

 

Posted Image

Watch that lobe of vortex to the north sweep down towards the UK, the PV is also cut in half so expect stronger and longer lasting WAA towards Greenland as the other lobe will stick west of Greenland.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Watch that lobe of vortex to the north sweep down toward the UK, the PV is also cut in half so expect stronger and longer lasting WAA towards Greenland

 

Yes, was going to say it'll be better in the long run. You can see the PV looking to split slightly (or at least fissure down the middle) with one lobe looking to breakaway to the Scandi/Siberian side.

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

It's looking a bit flatter on the 18Z GFS compared to the 12Z at T144.

 

Posted Image

I wouldn't say so, looks slightly better than 12z at this stage. Although cold may take slightly longer to arrive, slightly better pattern for duration.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

GFS as isn't developing that low.

 

Posted Image

 

 

Did this earlier this year and was proved wrong now lets see if it does the same this time...

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Yes, was going to say it'll be better in the long run. You can see the PV looking to split slightly (or at least fissure down the middle) with one lobe looking to breakaway to the Scandi/Siberian side.

I might be wrong but I see a Greenland high coming from this run Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Weird looking 18z, high pressure in the Atlantic is very weak but low pressure doesn't seem to want to claim the area either.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

However it has removed the feature south of Greenland now is a solid High.

 

Posted Image

 

The cold has bottled up a tad and is ready flow, but we must keep and eye on that northern low.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

The Atlantic has stopped completely 

 

Posted Image

 

Is that a face over the N Atlantic looking down on us Posted Image

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

I might be wrong but I see a Greenland high coming from this run Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Jet angle up by the W Greenland coast is a lot better than the 12z for sending lows (and associated WAA) S-N in that area but not too sure if it will quite get there on this run- we'll soon find out!

Edited by CreweCold
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Atlantic may have stopped but the low north-east doesn't want to budge.

Posted Image

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

People do like to over react.

 

The high in the Atlantic is more amplified on this run, colder air might be slower but things are definitely looking slightly better with the shortwave near Iceland now gone 

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

The low pressure has developed to far East by the look of it , we are kind of stuck in the middle, very odd looking run to me compared to previous.

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Gaz1985 Community Regular

Gaz1985

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted (edited)

The Atlantic has stopped completely 

 

Posted Image

 

Is that a face over the N Atlantic looking down on us Posted Image

 

It's Bruce Forsyth with that chin. Apologises mods off topic I know.

Edited by Gaz1985
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

ANDDDDDDDD ITS GONE!

 

Posted Image

 

We have now met the first problem.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Weird looking 18z, high pressure in the Atlantic is very weak but low pressure doesn't seem to want to claim the area either.

 

 

The Atlantic has stopped completely 

 

Posted Image

 

Is that a face over the N Atlantic looking down on us Posted Image

 

 

The jet pretty much just fizzled out on this run,pretty weird looking synoptics.

 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

ANDDDDDDDD ITS GONE!

 

Posted Image

 

But Cold

 

Posted Image

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

But Cold

 

Posted Image

Till it sinks then back to Square one.

 

It may just be the 18z, tomorrow will decide if it is.

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