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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

I don't quite know what to think of the T192 chart, Crewe Cold will be happy, definite Cheshire gap streamer happening there.

What is up with the low in the Atlantic, doesn't look right to me. Either way this is a good chance for the first Arctic blast of the season.

 

Yep, as I mentioned above. Would probably see my first flakes of the season. A nice cold NW'ly combined with a warmish Irish Sea = big showers forming which would probably bring the freezing level and snow right down to the surface at times.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

So then, even though its November, even though we should traditionally see strong westerly influence over the UK

we get our first early taste of -8/-9c's into Scotland....

 

The projected cold attack from the north is gathering pace...

 

at 216 we sit in a lull....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111112/ECH1-216.GIF?11-0

 

 

Also notice the low over ITALY- a very snowy pattern for the alps etc- also great news to see heights dropping in Europe

 

FWIW it looks as though the ECM isn't correct past 168/192 as the height profiles & movements don't look correct. its not smooth.

S

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UV-RAY Seasoned

UV-RAY

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted

I don't quite know what to think of the T192 chart, Crewe Cold will be happy, definite Cheshire gap streamer happening there.

What is up with the low in the Atlantic, doesn't look right to me. Either way this is a good chance for the first Arctic blast of the season.

Looks great for my locale, would give us some heavy wintry showers and possible longer periods of sleet/snow.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Posted Image

In fact the low slides under at 216, what a superb chart. Surface flow N/W across the UK, plenty of winter about that one, rain/sleet and snow for many northern areas at d9.

 

Yeah that low in the Atlantic looks to slide under, 240 could be a good chart.....not that it matters at that timeframe.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Epic

 

Posted Image

Great looking Temp 850hpa's chart on your 1000th post as well Posted Image

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

Epic

 

Posted Image

 

I wouldn't call it epic, it's cool with a possible wintry mix thrown in. Good to see pressure low over Europe, it can't become mild quickly from the set-up shown at day 8.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

as sm said, forget the ecm op post day 8 - that wont be the solution. the atlantic is wrong. however, the surface conditions over the uk are a reasonable punt at day 8 as the run goes awry to our west.

 

a genral trend thats beginning to establish is the atlantic high dumbelling around whilst depressions drop se off the arctic trough and pass se in our vicinity. thats something we saw modelled either last winter or the previous one and i cant recall what the end result was.

Edited by bluearmy
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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Posted Image

What a beautiful jumble. Cool/cold again at the surface with snow in the north; and the wonderful tri-trough in Europe, this time a bit too close for comfort. You wonder if that Greenlandic trough will dig SE and introduce a more vicious N flow after any retrogression, but it's definitely a good, albeit messy, EC suite.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

What a beauty of an ecm!!even with that low in the Atlantic trying to spoil things a little it is still frigid!!best run ive seen since the cold spell of march earlier in the year!!!ive just taken a look at the nao index and ao one aswell and they are not as keen in going into negative territory today. How fitting just when the models are showing something colder the nao and ao are not playing ball.anybody shed a bit more light on this?

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

What a beauty of an ecm!!even with that low in the Atlantic trying to spoil things a little it is still frigid!!best run ive seen since the cold spell of march earlier in the year!!!ive just taken a look at the nao index and ao one aswell and they are not as keen in going into negative territory today. How fitting just when the models are showing something colder the nao and ao are not playing ball.anybody shed a bit more light on this?

 

It wouldn't be frigid. It would be maximas of 3-7 North to South.

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mildmuck Apprentice

mildmuck

Posted
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
Posted

name of god...

Posted Image

 

 

Excellent, this is what I call cold. Still one run though, many changes ahead I think. Trend is looking good.

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mpkio2 Aficionado

mpkio2

Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
Posted (edited)

A cold end to ECM, northern blocking remains on hold which suggests the NAO could remain positive

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Actually, wouldn't that suggest a negative NAO since somesort of blocking is sitting in the Atlantic? Posted Image

Edited by mpkio2
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Currenlty:

 

Posted Image

 

 

10 Days time:

 

Posted Image

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TootyFruity Explorer

TootyFruity

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne
  • Weather Preferences: snow and cold
  • Location: Ashbourne
Posted

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111112/ECH1-240.GIF?11-0Snow for Scotland & the north- ( sleet mix at ground 0M)All eyes on retrograde block into Canadian Maritimes -S

Sorry but what's a retrograde block ? And what effects would it have for us ?Thanks
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

 How fitting just when the models are showing something colder the nao and ao are not playing ball.anybody shed a bit more light on this?

 

It's only a matter of time before the NAO goes properly -ve. A big -AO winter coming up (in my estimation of course), which would increase the chances of the NAO going negative for periods. I'm with IF on this one, this spell and spells through December will be a taster of what is to come in January and February.

 

Of course, we don't always need the NAO to be negative to achieve a cold spell, though it often helps.

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Posted Image

What a beautiful jumble. Cool/cold again at the surface with snow in the north; and the wonderful tri-trough in Europe, this time a bit too close for comfort. You wonder if that Greenlandic trough will dig SE and introduce a more vicious N flow after any retrogression, but it's definitely a good, albeit messy, EC suite.

 

Yes,some strange going's on in the atlantic towards the end of the ECM op run with the 

circling LP,but looks pretty much in tune with the 00z ensemble mean regarding the main 

height anomalies.

 

op run..  00z ens...

 

 

Winter tyres on stand-by.Posted Image 

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Team Jo Accomplished

Team Jo

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
Posted

Sorry but what's a retrograde block ? And what effects would it have for us ?Thanks

 

There's some dead handy posts on the Learning threads - this one should help http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/56318-guide-to-uk-winter-setups/

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