Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[SMU]

Here you see the 06z & 18z get slowly further away to the 00z & 12z- plus if there was regionals it would be even worse for Europe

 

day 3  NH

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

day 5  NH

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

day 6 NH

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

you see the 06z the worst of the bunch- as I have always maintained- by the 18z catches the 00z hemispherically speaking

 

 

pity no regionals

S 

[Summer Sun]

Colder air starting to filter down into Scotland at t144

 

[garbagebags]

!!!

 

[BristolBlizzard]

!!!

Wow

Edited November 11, 2013 by BristolBlizzard

[Summer Sun]

!!!

 

Can just imagine Steve Murr and co after seeing that

 

 

[Summer Sun]

And the floodgates open

 

 

NAO looks about 50/50 tonight as to whether it will stay positive or go negative

 

Edited November 11, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Barry12]

ECM 168 - Looking good

 

[Nick L]

Here you see the 06z & 18z get slowly further away to the 00z & 12z- plus if there was regionals it would be even worse for Europe

 

day 3  NH

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

day 5  NH

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

day 6 NH

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

you see the 06z the worst of the bunch- as I have always maintained- by the 18z catches the 00z hemispherically speaking

 

 

pity no regionals

S 

 

Sorry but there's hardly anything between them on those plots!

[SMU]

That CFS run is EPIC

 

anyway

 

ECM 168

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111112/ECH0-168.GIF?11-0

 

A decent parcel of cold air aloft- certainly cold enough for snow showers down to low levels over Scotland late Monday...

 

Im going to Chester Weds- I wonder if I will see any of the white stuff in showers!S

[garbagebags]

come on ECM!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

That CFS run is EPIC

 

anyway

 

ECM 168

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111112/ECH0-168.GIF?11-0

 

A decent parcel of cold air aloft- certainly cold enough for snow showers down to low levels over Scotland late Monday...

 

Im going to Chester Weds- I wonder if I will see any of the white stuff in showers!S

 

I hope so because if it snows in Chester it may snow here

[SMU]

Sorry but there's hardly anything between them on those plots!

 

That's because its not regional. Im afraid you will have to take my word for it- if you don't want to that's fine- but the 06z GFS is the bin liner for rest of the model runs for the day....

S

[lorenzo]

More on verification...I caught a video over the weekend where Big Joe B advised that the CFS was outperforming the GFS at some points already this season. Not inspiring confidence on the Winter ahead from the GFS.

 

Found the Ensembles within that page, NAEFS showing exactly why it is closely monitored.

 

Next one is interesting as it compares within the ECM op with the control run.

GFS --->  NCEP GFS forecasts from T00Z 

ECM ---> ECMWFf orecasts from T12Z 

CTL ---> NCEP ensemble control forecasts from T00Z 

ctl --->    ECMWF ensemble control forecasts from T12Z 

 

 

If anyone wants to have a look through try http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ensm/

and http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/verif.php

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

!!!

 

Ian Brown and Mushy had a get together to view that CFS run....they weren't prepared for what they were about to see

 

[Cloud 10]

Possible split PV coming on ECM?

 

[garbagebags]

name of god...

[Jonan92]

Very cold chart

 

[Barry12]

ECM 192 - We have lift off!

 

[Isolated Frost]

Top class EC, attempted retrogression, but it doesn't need to be a 'pure' or full retrogression- a real pull of cold energy from the north associated with that Arctic trough. Shaping up for a N influence some time down the month.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM 192 - We have lift off!

 

 

From a purely IMBY (and others in the area) perspective, should be some big showers pushing down the Cheshire gap there. Probably not cold enough for pure snow but would probably see a right wintry mix of hail, sleet etc

[Captain Shortwave]

I don't quite know what to think of the T192 chart, Crewe Cold will be happy, definite Cheshire gap streamer happening there.

What is up with the low in the Atlantic, doesn't look right to me. Either way this is a good chance for the first Arctic blast of the season.

Edited November 11, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[radiohead]

That Atlantic low at T192 seems to be in the "wrong" position for prospects of ridging to Greenland, no? Different to the GFS there. Not that it matters too much at this point.

[Isolated Frost]

The interruption in the retrogression at 192 is something to look at 216- the general flow seems to be that the EC has returned and supported the GFS modelling- and that is the main positive to reach from this run. -8c o/ Scotland at d8 is something to look forward to, at the least.

[Barry12]

Epic

 

[Summer Sun]

t216 shows those colder uppers moving across the country, blocking isn't getting established for now

 

Edited November 11, 2013 by Summer Sun