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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Eh?  The easterlies of November 2010 brought endless snow by the shed full with thunder & lightning - dispersed in between with sunshine?  Give me a raging easterly any day (with the upper air cold enough to cause snowy convection of course)

Indeed they did it was incredible.The easterlies in march didnt deliver because of the low sst ete but in generall north winds deliver to the north and along coastal fringes altho they are bright and clear.

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted (edited)

apart from the Fact that the end Nov 2010 event was Greenland blocking and Northerlies...

 

 

 I remember watching the showers moving from east to west on the radar?  Can someone explain why this would be the case then?  Was I on a different planet??

 

Edit - it was an easterly!

Edited by P-M
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

It all depends on where you live as to which direction favours your location for snow... 

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garbagebags Enthusiast

garbagebags

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
Posted

 I remember watching the showers moving from east to west on the radar?  Can someone explain why this would be the case then?  Was I on a different planet??

 

Edit - it was an easterly!

 

Looks like a textbook Northerly to me

Posted Image

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted

Looks like a textbook Northerly to me

Posted Image

 

 

Try a few frames forward - we had snow for a good few days / week ish every day and it changed to an easterly - I know I experienced it and it was epic trust me.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

 I remember watching the showers moving from east to west on the radar?  Can someone explain why this would be the case then?  Was I on a different planet??

sheffield took a massive hit during this spell as did the north east.The winds during that spell were generally from the ese so you are correct.There were northerly spells but the severe snowfall was brought in from an easterly quater.

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garbagebags Enthusiast

garbagebags

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
Posted

Try a few frames forward - we had snow for a good few days / week ish every day and it changed to an easterly - I know I experienced it and it was epic trust me.

Oh it was epic alright. Probably best snow ive seen since about 1995

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

apart from the Fact that the end Nov 2010 event was Greenland blocking and Northerlies...

They were NE'lies which I think is the best as it enables snow showers to push well inland.
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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted (edited)

They were NE'lies which I think is the best as it enables snow showers to push well inland.

 

 

OK well that will do Frosty but I knew at one point they were moving from the east to hammer the coast line with really heavy showers.  There was one occasion during a northerly within that time frame where the snow moved north - south but overall the best snowfall was E or NE.

 

Edit:  And I have had many dreams wishing for a rinse and repeat of that year!

Edited by P-M
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The GFS is really deepening some of these lows on it's output recently, not sure whether they are remotely believable.

Posted Image

930mb really GFS???? Posted Image

It then does the same thing in FI blowing away any progress that was made in high resolution. Before then it looks pretty good

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Storm of the century in FI GFS, those isobars over Greenland have formed a solid white line

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted (edited)

Good god, Murmansk would be blown apart!!

 

Day After Tomorrow output in FI!

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Indeed biblical area of low pressure lol.The runs just derails past 240 mark but looks pretty good in the reliable as youd say.ecm should be interesting later imo!

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124alex Rookie

124alex

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

Indeed biblical area of low pressure lol.The runs just derails past 240 mark but looks pretty good in the reliable as youd say.ecm should be interesting later imo!

 

What time does the ecm roll out?

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

The GFS is really deepening some of these lows on it's output recently, not sure whether they are remotely believable.

Posted Image

930mb really GFS???? Posted Image

It then does the same thing in FI blowing away any progress that was made in high resolution. Before then it looks pretty good

This was the type of ending that I suggest when mentioning the cold snap total breakdown of heights lower heights no longer into Europe poor output but to be expected.

So cold blip and then back to more average set up.

Rainfall levels lower though into the southern half of the UK.

The deep low into northern Europe very unrealistic perhaps watered down in strength but most certainly a downgrade and massive downgrade by the gfs.

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Zenarcher Seasoned

Zenarcher

Posted
Posted

The GFS is really deepening some of these lows on it's output recently, not sure whether they are remotely believable.930mb really GFS???? Posted Image

It then does the same thing in FI blowing away any progress that was made in high resolution. Before then it looks pretty good

 

It could be possible we had a 935mb low in the Atlantic back in January this year but yes the GFS does tend to overdo these lows.

 

The UKMO at the same time shows a 965mb low so it just shows the large differences between the models at 144 hours. Interestingly both GEM and NAVGEM 00z runs showed a deep low there as well going off the scale.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

This was a good run from the GFS, the cold air starts sweeping into Scotland by just t-168 hours.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Before we bin the GFS FI we should wait for the ECM if the ECM looks completely different then the GFS is struggling and goes completely bonked.

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