Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[essexweather]

thats looks significantly less chilly around the 20th than the london ones have been recently.  however, until i see it in the more familiar weathercast format, i'll hold judgement.

 

naefs 12z continues with the general trend though hard to pick out the detail - yesterdays nuance was low west euro anomoly in week 2. todays is the trough getting to our east. both are cold solutions for the uk

 

Here is the 12Z GFS for comparison: http://i.imgur.com/JquwBl5.gif (same lat/lon)

 

I've had a quick look through MOGREPS (Met Office ensembles) and it is nearer to the ECM than GFS at the latter stages.

 

Met Office CF would most likely go with 'slightly below average' temperatures from 15th Nov - 24th Nov on tomorrows update if the 00Z remains broadly the same. Colder signal is gaining support now with around 20-25% of ECM members

Edited November 9, 2013 by essexweather

[Barry12]

GFS 18Z

 

168 hours:

 

 

192 hours:

 

 

240 hours

 

 

Even worse than the 12z I think at this stage

Edited November 9, 2013 by Barry95

[Snowman.]

Interesting run from the 18z

 

 

 

Unsure on what to do.

[Barry12]

We only get one coldish day on the GFS 18z...

 

Edited November 9, 2013 by Barry95

[Panayiotis]

ouch! Clearly the PV is much stronger on the 18z, giving this..

Edited November 9, 2013 by Panayiotis

[stainesbloke]

ouch! Clearly the PV is much stronger on the 18z, giving this..

Short term pain for long term gain? Lots of cold building to the north on this chart, wouldn't take much to sweep it south.

[Man With Beard]

Sorry can't post charts from phone but just seen 500mb anomaly charts, surely a good chance of Atlantic High and Russian High linking up by day 10? Which depending on positioning could bring a colder spell from the east?

[radiohead]

That 18Z GFS won't be one for the scrapbooks.

[Panayiotis]

Quite an amplified pattern from the GFS 18z ensemble and doesnt really support the Op.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Captain Shortwave]

Ensembles are a real mixed bag, but the mean showing some sort of PM flow dominating with low pressure moving south east into Europe.

For fun one perturbation wants Greenland to undergo spontaneous combustion 

Edited November 9, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

Now that's a true Greenland High....

 

 

 

[Panayiotis]

I find this ensemble funny!

[Frosty.]

That 18Z GFS won't be one for the scrapbooks.

I bet there will be lots of wintry GEFS 18z perturbations. It's been another very promising day of model watching for the majority on here hoping for a cold spell before winter.

[Panayiotis]

Now that's a true Greenland High....

 

TRUE GH.png

Funny enough, the same member went for the same Greenland high on the 12z!!..

Full ensemble out, still trending cold after the 17th/18th. For my location:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=203&ext=1&y=142&run=18&runpara=0

Edited November 9, 2013 by Panayiotis

[radiohead]

Several very interesting ensemble members. You feel it's only a matter of time before the op throws up something similar.

[Catacol]

December 62

 

A SSW occurred during January

 

"The spectral energy equations for zonal and eddy kinetic and available potential energies are used to investigate the energetics of the lowest 30 km of the atmosphere during the months of January and February 1963. A major stratospheric warming, manifested in the reversal of the stratospheric meridional temperature gradient and destruction of the polar-night stratospheric vortex, began in mid-January."

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469(1965)022%3C0597%3AASOAED%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

The warming did appear towards the end of December then took till Mid-Jan to take effect.

 

A strat warming is always triggered and never appear out of thin air.

 

Not since 2009.... and there was a CW in November which disrupted the vortex and set the winter up.

[SE Blizzards]

Several very interesting ensemble members. You feel it's only a matter of time before the op throws up something similar.

 

Indeed. At one stage or another most of the 18Z Ens show some interest.

Edited November 10, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Barry12]

If something similar to a few of them members appeared on the operational, this forum would go into meltdown!

Edited November 10, 2013 by Barry95

[Snowman.]

Anyone have archive site?

 

Meteociel is continuing to crash for me.

[Snowman.]

Anyone have archive site?

 

Meteociel is continuing to crash for me.

 

Scratch that it's working again.

 

'That ECM' was still an amazing run.

 

 

Edited November 10, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Iceni]

Now that's a true Greenland High....

 

TRUE GH.png

 

A thing of beauty and a joy to behold.

[Polar Maritime]

Let's see where we go from here, lovely charts..

 

[AWD]

Now the word "Blizzards" often gets overused/easily used on here but there is no question that if those charts verified, some of us would experience a true blizzard!

The downside, there is more chance of England winning the World Cup next year than those charts have of verifying!

Edited November 10, 2013 by AWD

[West is Best]

Eye candy time. Shame it's so far out:

 

 

I was abroad much of last winter so missed the fun and games, but this would be a pretty cold way to start the new process.

[Weather-history]

Let's see where we go from here, lovely charts..

That is remarkably similiar to what happened 120 years ago almost to the day

Edited November 10, 2013 by Weather-history