Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is trending colder and more wintry from T+240 hours, looking at three timeframes... the first at T+168 hours shows  anticyclonic conditions for the south of the uk, the uppers are on the mild side compared to what follows but the surface conditions are a bit chilly with temps struggling to reach 10 celsius, but then it turns rather colder and more unsettled with an increasing risk of wintry precipitation, especially but not exclusively on hills, hilly areas would become quite snowy, especially further north. The gefs mean has got progressively colder since the 00z.   

[John Badrick]

Looking at my phone and People are asking me why I'm laughing to myself...I really can't be bothered to explain

[Average Joe]

Surely Frosty's always in a frenzy???

*Frosty is the best thing about this site by the way, summer or winter, cold or hot, his enthusiasm knows no bounds*

[MR EXTREMES]

Still 240hrs before a change to colder weather type, but I feel it's a lost cause to much deep low heights pushing heights back into southeast Europe.

[Skullzrulerz]

Still 240hrs before a change to colder weather type, but I feel it's a lost cause to much deep low heights pushing heights back into southeast Europe.

Long way off yet.Things can change..

[legritter]

Hang on in there coldies ,we all know how long it takes for charts to come into the reliable ,the signs are there .ok it can all go pear shape but im confidently looking forward to future runs ,modells are not crystall balls and what COULD be actually happening 10 Days from now wont present itself for a few more runs yet .things take time ,let things Mature and be prepared for let downs ,we dont know whats looming but what we have at the moment is a possible start of a PRESSURE CHANGE .for those who like it mild it might be your luck for us coldies it could be our turn .i say interesting times ahead . 

[Frosty.]

At least the Ecm 12z op is still showing a Northerly and there would be a chance of a reload once the toppling atlantic ridge collapses with another low moving down across the uk from the northwest, the eventual outcome could be a lot more severe than this, lots more changes to come.

[Summer Sun]

The GFS ensemble keeps us in a west or north westerly flow from t216 to t384

 

 

Before that we are going to see some settled weather with a good 5 or 6 days of high pressure keeping things quiet leading to an increased risk of, mist, fog and frost developing across the country

 

[radiohead]

Just for fun, here is how the 12Z ECM looked on the 9th Nov 2010 at T240 (the 19th). The snow began to arrive on the 24th.

 

[Summer Sun]

Yep we need some 'boom' charts Steve so Frosty can go into a chart posting frenzy....

 

 

Whilst Gav goes and cries into his cereal

 

 

 

 

After doing this first

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models show small variations on a theme over the next week or so. for that reason I am going to be quite brief tonight. The trend is for High pressure to build down to the SW of the UK over the coming few days. As a result through next week the weather will alternate between cloudier and damper spells with some rain while other days are rather colder and brighter with a chill NW or even North wind. With the proximity of High pressure where it is amounts of rain will likely be small with most of the rain falling over the North while Southern and SW areas remain largely dry and bright for longer periods.

 

GFS maintains this basic pattern throughout the extended run too with large amounts of dry and bright weather over the South though with mist, fog and possibly frost problems at night while the North sees occasional rain to break up some shorter drier interludes. Temperatures will never stray far from average overall though with a few colder interludes.

 

UKMO ends it's run tonight showing a large High pressure near SW Britain though it's position could feed quite a lot of cloud down from the NW over the UK in temperatures close to average but with the risk of patchy night frost and fog should skies clear over the South.

 

GEM holds High pressure a little bit more to the SW allowing occasional troughs down from the NE at times with some rain and if nothing else a lot of cloud cover in fairly average temperatures.

 

NAVGEM relaxes High pressure over Southern England for a time before sliding it off over Europe. The North would see mild SW winds and occasional rain while the South stays dry with patchy fog and frost at times should skies clear.

 

ECM shows changeable weather at the end of it's run with High pressure ambling around the SW of Britain and a generally NW flow over the UK. As a trough carries a little rain SE over Britain winds turn Northerly for a time with the odd wintry shower in the East and frost at night before a ridge collapses SE over the UK on Day 10 with a milder interlude set to arrive on Day 11.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a very mixed pattern especially later on with a fair amount of members offering fairly cold solutions later on but a few milder options too. The one constant is that there is not an incredible amount of rain showing up with some decent drier spells especially in the South.

 

The Jet Stream moves North to the NW of Scotland next week while thereafter there is no clear cut clue on what follows to be honest.

 

In Summary the weather looks like slowing down over the coming few weeks as High pressure builds towards the SW of Britain next week. There will be some rain in places especially over the North where any heavy rain is likely. In the South there will be plenty of dry and relatively bright weather developing with some patchy night mist and fog and touches of frost. Some short and colder Northerly flows could give a few wintry showers over the hills but overall there doesn't look to be nothing too wintry on view tonight.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z perturbations are filled with wintry potential of varying degrees of severity but most show a risk of snow to low levels at times from T+240 onwards, there is even a november ice day in there.... considering what we have seen so far this autumn, this would be an early bonus blast of winter with a week to spare before the official meteorological winter begins.  

Edited November 9, 2013 by Frosty.

[bobbydog]

gavin reflected with sadness on all those charts he posted during autumn.....

 

 

Hamlet..... the mild cigar......

[mpkio2]

I'm sorry but I couldn't resist to show some stonking runs the CFS has been pumping out recetly for the end of November potential cold snap. And yeah, I know its the CFS and all not reliable, but its been showing this sort of stuff over the past few days! Take a glandar and see:

 

A Scandi high on todays 0z:

 

An Iceland high on the 06z:

 

A strong Greenland high with incoming snow showers on Yesterdays 12z (Best run of the lot IMO, Trust me it's an AMAZING RUN!):

 

And another Scandi high on Yesterday's 18z:

 

All fun and games and may not happen at all, but still great to see nontheless.

 

EDIT: Plus, that CFS 12z from 8 November shows a very sad looking PV, with a big high sitting right near the middle of it, causing the PV to almost split!

Edited November 9, 2013 by mpkio2

[Biggin]

Surely Frosty's always in a frenzy???*Frosty is the best thing about this site by the way, summer or winter, cold or hot, his enthusiasm knows no bounds*

Yep me too love his enthusiasm, much rather that than the...  well you know who I mean.

[Frosty.]

Yep me too love his enthusiasm, much rather that than the...  well you know who I mean.

Thanks Biggin and Duncan for your nice comments but i'm just one of many who enjoy contributing to this GREAT site, so many opinions and all of them count..every single one.

[chris55]

Whatever transpires, to me it looks like the models are picking up on an upcoming shift in the pattern. We'll just have to wait and see eh.

[ICETAB]

Anyone know where the ECM op sat within the ensembles?

[Anthony81]

A re-run of the november-december 2010 cold spell would be nice, encouraging signs though

[Summer Sun]

Anyone know where the ECM op sat within the ensembles?

 

ECM ensemble can be found here - http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html - still showing 00z update at 21:29

[sevenkings]

Well.... not quite the 'boom' charts some were hoping for- especially those of the fruity variety in the midlands!!

 

Still it looks good for a cold spell in 8-9 days, personally I think the ECM 00z will be nearer the mark

 

S

 

always a pleasure to read your post murr.  as i do on TWO

 

 

Edited November 9, 2013 by sevenkings

[essexweather]

ECM ensemble can be found here - http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html - still showing 00z update at 21:29

 

12Z ECM ensemble is available here: http://www.essexweather.com/outlook.html

 

This updates every evening at 9PM, at least two hours before any other web site

Edited November 9, 2013 by essexweather

[bluearmy]

ECM ensemble can be found here - http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html - still showing 00z update at 21:29

 

it updates just after 11pm GMT gavin

[bluearmy]

12Z ECM ensemble is available here: http://www.essexweather.com/outlook.html

 

This updates every evening at 9PM, at least two hours before any other web site

 

thats looks significantly less chilly around the 20th than the london ones have been recently.  however, until i see it in the more familiar weathercast format, i'll hold judgement.

 

naefs 12z continues with the general trend though hard to pick out the detail - yesterdays nuance was low west euro anomoly in week 2. todays is the trough getting to our east. both are cold solutions for the uk

[Purga]

A pretty underwhelming ECM 12z to match GFS.

At least the models are 'toying' with patterns changes to a more amplified scenario.

Keep up the ramping btw it's good clean fun as long as it's not taken seriously - LOL