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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

CFS

 

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Later delivers...

 

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Begins to die

 

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Nope!

 

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Absolutely astonishing charts !! 

Whole country would be a whiteout. I'm thinking that especially the Cheshire gap would be the hotspot in the 2 Northerly setups! Copious amounts of snow would be seen there. Also Thames and Wash streamers on the NorthBeasterly setup!

If only........

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin

If you look at the Northern hemisphere the ECM at 240 isn't to bad it could produce a shutdown to the atlantic eventually if its cold you after,its the best ECM at that range so far this season.

Signs and only signs that the atlantic may slow down as pressure begins to rise

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

If you look at the Northern hemisphere the ECM at 240 isn't to bad it could produce a shutdown to the atlantic eventually if its cold you after,its the best ECM at that range so far this season.

Signs and only signs that the atlantic may slow down as pressure begins to rise

 

It's certainly got potential

 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

One thing I'm noticing, is that there looks to be lack of big low pressure systems exiting the American East Coast, instead, the jet is diving South because of a ridge blocking the current route of the jet now. Also, the PV looks to be heading back in the direction of Siberia. This could well herald some big changes very soon if the models are calling this one right Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

It looks like the Atlantic train will slow down next week with some drier weather around especially but not exclusively in the south

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z op run shows quite a sharp contrast in temps on sunday, cold in the east and north, mild air and heavy rain sweeping across the south and west, the 12z looks too progressive as far as sunday in particular is concerned in my opinion, the main feature of this run is the constant changes of airmass between Tm (tropical maritime) and either rPm (returning polar maritime or polar maritime, there are pockets of displaced polar / arctic maritime mixed in with cool oceanic north atlantic air which dominates the further north you are, more of a mild / chilly blend across central and southern uk, a risk of hill and mountain snow across scotland and possibly the higher hills further south at times and in the quieter interludes, a risk of fog and frost. High pressure builds across the south/se of the uk for a time next week but can't really get a foothold and it soon gets shunted away into mainland europe, low pressure is always waiting in the wings to the north and west, the north and west looks unsettled and sometimes windy throughout, temperatures end up working out close to the seasonal average overall although a little below average across the far north where most of the short lived colder incursions occur.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest from Gibby, there remains little sign of anything remotely wintry from tonight's output. instead we continue to be bombarded with Westerly breezes squeezed between High pressure to the South and Low to the North

 

All models show a broad Westerly flow across the UK, mild in the South and rather cold in the North. The weather is set to remain changeable with showers over the North for the next 72hrs or so while in the South a waving front lying WNW to ESE close to Southern Britain reinvigorates tonight bringing a spell of rain East across the South later tonight and tomorrow before it finally staggers itself away to the SE with all areas seeing sunshine and showers on Thursday and Friday. Another squally Low pressure feature looks like crossing the UK on Saturday intensifying showers or rain with gusty winds before things quieten down over Saturday night as pressure rises from the SW. Through Sunday a dry and cold start will probably become replaced by thickening cloud, increasing wind and rain moving up from the SW late in the day.

 

GFS then shows a mild day or two before a weakening cold front moves SE over Britain with some rain and drizzle for a time on Tuesday before fresher and colder conditions with a NW breeze sets in. With pressure quite High over the UK by then some mist and fog patches will become more extensive in Southern Britain where a patchy frost must also be catered for. Later in the run as the High recedes SE more low pressure could return the UK into another spell of rain and showers with temperatures rather lower than of late.

 

UKMO closes it's run showing next Monday with a broad and fresh Westerly flow with very mild conditions likely for all. Dry if cloudy weather would be most likely in the South while exposed coasts and hills to the North and West of Britain see occasional rain and drizzle with sea and coastal fog. 

 

GEM shows a mild start to next week under a moist Westerly flow which turns slowly NW on Tuesday behind a weakening cold front which clears SE through the day with a short spell of rain and drizzle followed by colder and fresher weather with some sunshine. Through the rest of the week changeable weather looks likely with some rain at times, most of it to the North and West exposed to the Westerly aspect to the wind. Temperatures would be close to average but maybe rather cold in the North and NE at times.

 

NAVGEM builds High pressure up towards Southern Britain early next week with most rain becoming restricted to the North while the South sees an increased risk of overnight mist, fog and patchy frost should any clear skies develop near to High pressure over Southernmost parts by then.

 

ECM tonight shows a warm front crossing East over the UK with much of next week looking changeable and relatively mild as High pressure remains to the South and SW and low to the North. Occasional incursions of polar maritime NW air will interrupt the mildness at times with the risk of frost and fog in the South briefly. There will be occasional rain at times too but never overly heavy in the South. 

 

The GFS Ensembles offer no change to recent output with the general trend remaining for broadly average and changeable late Autumn conditions with brisk winds and rain at times.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow remaining across the UK from the NW or West for the next week or so with many options shown thereafter including little change to the current positioning.

 

In Summary there remains little sign of anything remotely wintry from tonight's output. instead we continue to be bombarded with Westerly breezes squeezed between High pressure to the South and Low to the North. Rain or showers will continue for all until next week when a rise of pressure from the South pushes the polar vortex further to the North offering drier and mild conditions to affect the South at times although frost and fog patches overnight could mean colder temperatures by day should any fog be slow to lift. The North will never see much of this improvement with further rain at times in relatively mild temperatures and more unsettled conditions for all could return towards the end of the period.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

One thing I'm noticing, is that there looks to be lack of big low pressure systems exiting the American East Coast, instead, the jet is diving South because of a ridge blocking the current route of the jet now. Also, the PV looks to be heading back in the direction of Siberia. This could well herald some big changes very soon if the models are calling this one right Posted Image

I think something is going to pop up over the coming weeks. Where, when and how is affects the UK is the big question.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The gfs & ecm 12z at T+120 hours are rather different this evening, the Ecm 12z building a stronger ridge of high pressure across the south with the very unsettled weather much further away to the northwest whereas the Gfs 12z is pushing heavy rain and mild air northeastwards across the uk with cold air clinging on across the north and east, still some wrinkles to iron out I think, having said that, the ecm 12z also shows high pressure building in from the southwest and eventually becoming centred to the southeast later next week with the usual nw / se split.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

The final ECM is a peach. Setting up a stonking Northerly.

One main thing I've noticed so far is the lack of the vortex setting up shop in Southern Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ECM anomaly keeps high pressure in charge at t240

 

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As does the ensemble

 

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Its only the operational which goes the unsettled route

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

In my opinion, the GEFS 12z mean @ T+240 hours is a fair reflection of how things stand tonight because there are a lot of GEFS 12z perturbations showing high pressure having the upper hand during that period, so a window of fine weather with overnight fog but not what I would call mild, probable risk of slight frosts.... however, as we go further on, the high is squished away southwards as a rather colder and much more unsettled spell evolves with snow returning to northern hills and temps eventually below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

It looks like the Atlantic train will slow down next week with some drier weather around especially but not exclusively in the south

 

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I think many here would welcome a more settled picture, ECM does show possible heights into Western Greendland with the PV switching over as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Let's have a look at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean...tomorrow shows mild, wet and windy weather sweeping eastwards across southern britain with cooler, brighter and showery weather further north, the uk as a whole is rather chilly with a fresh to strong westerly  flow on thursday and friday with sunshine and showers, winds moderate on saturday with probably less showers and more sunshine before more rain and increasing winds sweeps northeastwards across the uk during sunday, this is more like the gfs 12z op run at T+120 hours (sunday). Into next week, high pressure begins to build northeastwards across the southern half of the uk with the weather settling down bringing lighter winds, sunny spells but with overnight and morning fog which may linger all day in places, if that happens, temperatures will be very depressed, also a risk of slight frosts, progressively more unsettled with an atlantic regime further north. I think there is currently good agreement for high pressure to take control during next week, at least across the southern half of the BI.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The fact that no one has posted in here for almost 12 hours says it all, very little on offer for coldies this morning all I can find for them is this

 

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However ECM follows its anomaly and ensemble runs last night ending settled

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

Not surprised there hasn't been any comment on the 0z the gfs fi shows zonal all the way with a north south split with the south being warmer than the north. The only crum of comfort is that on the last frame of the gfs high could build into the Greenland area.

Edited by Tom Jarvis
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Not surprised there hasn't been any comment on the 0z the gfs fi shows zonal all the way with a north south split with the south being warmer than the north. The only crum of comfort is that on the last frame of the gfs hightail could build into the Greenland area.

 

Yep, no imminent pattern change -  zonal sums it up with temporary brief ridging from the south at times.  Still plenty of time for that to change though.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest from Gibby

 

All models continue to agree on the pattern of events between now and the end of the weekend. A Westerly flow lies over the UK. A weak front is straddled across the Southern half of Britain with mild, dull and drizzly weather across the South where it is very mild whereas the north sees a cleaner, fresher and colder airflow with scattered showers in the West. Through tonight and tomorrow the front in the South is shown to clear the SE with colder and fresher air over the North extending to all areas. Friday will see frequent and sometimes heavy showers and these will continue over the North on Saturday. Over the South a longer spell of rain looks like on Saturday as a squally trough crosses East through the day. Then after a chilly and dry night over the UK Sunday will see a decent if rather cold day in the North and East while cloud and drizzly rain heralds the arrival of very mild air into the SW later in the day, extending NE to all areas early next week.

 

GFS then shows much higher pressure values over the UK next week and beyond, especially in the South. There will be spells of very mild weather with moist SW winds, a lot of cloud and the chance of some drizzly rain interspersed by injections of colder and clearer conditions occasionally feeding down from the NW albeit temporary each time. Rainfall amounts are shown to become small in the South but still some heavy rain in the far North at times where it may also be rather windy and cold at times. Patchy overnight mist and fog may develop should clear spells occur overnight in the South too but overall daytime temperatures should recover well here.

 

UKMO today holds a High pressure bank from the Azores across Southern France and across to Eastern Europe with a Westerly flow over the UK. The weather would of been mild in the preceding day leading to Tuesday with a weakening cold front moving SE bringing a band of light rain through and followed by somewhat cooler and fresher air by midweek but never especially cold anywhere.

 

GEM also shows a weakening cold front crossing SE towards the middle of next week with fresher and cleaner air arriving across the UK when it would be windy and showery in the North. Through the rest of the run the North will see the main share of wind and rain and any colder conditions while the South stay relatively mild and breezy with just a little rain but a lot of cloud and temperatures holding well up to average of not above at times.

 

NAVGEM shows conditions becoming very mild over the UK for a time early next week with a moist SW flow blowing across all areas, strongest in the North where rain and drizzle is likely. With time Southern areas become misty and with any cloud breaks and the fall out of wind fog may become a big issue as High pressure moves over the top of these areas. Such conditions would bring colder daytime conditions too especially where fog fails to disperse in the mornings.

 

ECM shows alternating mild and rather colder conditions next week especially felt if you live in the North and East where mild SW winds alternate with cold and showery NW'lies. the effects shown are much less noticeable in the South especially as High pressure lies on the doorstep to the South or SW so here a lot of dry and benign conditions seem likely with a few bright and fresh days mixed with rather cloudy, mild and damp conditions.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show nothing more than a gentle seasonal fall off to temperature values over the next few weeks with the mean for this run always lying close to or above the long term mean. This means of course that winds will continue to blow from a Westerly quadrant with just brief colder polar maritime incursions to Northern areas at times. Rainfall is projected to occur almost anywhere but mostly very light in parts of the South indicating High pressure South of the UK lies close by.

 

The Jet Stream currently roaring over the UK continues for a few more days before it ridges higher over the Atlantic and down across Europe from a position North of the UK next week. thereafter trends are inconclusive and not worth commenting on this morning due to indecision.

 

In Summary the weather remains generally Westerly Atlantic based for the reliable future. From a rather chilly and unsettled period for the remainder of this week and much of the weekend it looks reliably likely that High pressure is going to nudge up close to Southern Britain sending the Jet further North and allowing mild Atlantic South-westerlies to become dominant over the South while the North too sees some of this, though here colder showery and windy conditions will interject at times. The key question is the final resting place of any rise of pressure to the South. If High pressure makes landfall over Southern Britain then the incidence of fog and frost here increases dramatically with much colder conditions developing near the surface. If it stays to the South then cloudy, benign, mild and damp conditions would remain more likely at times. As it stands currently until we lose High pressure from any point South of the UK there seems little likelihood of any substantial cold weather anywhere over the UK and as the charts stand this morning that looks unlikely to happen anytime soon.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Yep, Mid latitude blocking no good for early winter lovers. No snow for lowland Europe . Most long range models show little change. Some light at the end of the tunnel as we approach the end of the month with a weakening of the zonal jet stream with a likely shift of the high pressure zone and flow.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z op run shows a spell of cooler westerly winds blowing a mixture of sunshine and showers across the whole of the uk from tomorrow into the weekend, the worst weather further northwest, saturday night could see a widespread frost as a weak ridge pushes east before wet, windy and milder weather begins to spread in from the southwest during sunday, the north & east could be dry, bright and chilly for most of sunday though. Today is the last mild day for the south until late sunday and through monday as the entire uk should be within a warm front sector for 24 hours or so, it's a generally unsettled run but there are gaps between lows where weak pressure rises occur but they are transient and the overall pattern remains disturbed with occasional polar maritime shots, especially for the north of the uk. Into next week, monday looks unsettled, mild and windy, tuesday becomes cooler, showery and continues windy, colder on wednesday with showers turning wintry on northern hills but then later next week, a quieter interlude with high pressure building in from the southwest and pushing across the south but it's soon shunted away by another atlantic low with a backwash of rather cold and very strong nw'ly winds, with showers again turning wintry on hills in the north, another weak flat atlantic ridge follows but hot on it's heels is the next depression with our name on it..it's unsettled.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Not much to be said really, zonality began on the 15th October and shows no sign of abating,  At least we are not seeing a strong PV over Greenland in the outer reaches of the output.

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Posted
  • Location: leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: sun and snow and frost
  • Location: leicestershire

low tempertures on Saturday as low as 2 or 3c in midlands northern England wouldn't mind betting that there could be some snow on hills in these areas  something to keep an eye on. speaking of the GFS looks like there could be some hard frosts overnight if that high comes early next week.

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