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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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winter snow Newbie

winter snow

Posted
  • Location: leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: sun and snow and frost
  • Location: leicestershire
Posted

A northerly on the latest GFS run it has been hinting at this since yesterday. -5 bar all way down across England by next Tuesday. meanwhile ECM has some pretty chilly air come next weekend and like frosty saids could bring some wintery showers from north wales northwards. wouldn't mind abit of sun between wintery showers mind you.

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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted (edited)

Did someone order a Northerly? 

 

 

GEM and GFS certainly have potential for cold to develop... Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

post-18296-0-67552900-1383585675_thumb.p

post-18296-0-14077600-1383585684_thumb.p

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Did someone order a Northerly?

Me..me..me :- )
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Jonathan Lang Apprentice

Jonathan Lang

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny (hate hot), severe thunderstorms, heavy snow, extreme cold
  • Location: Sowerby bridge, near halifax, W Yorks 120m
Posted

Did someone order a Northerly? 

 

And here I am impatiently waiting for the next frame to update! Posted Image

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

12Z GFS problems today? It was late starting and now the low res seems to be late rolling out too.

 

Seems to be stuck at t192 currently

 

Posted Image

 

Looking at the high out west it could well move over the UK like it did on the 06z run, in turn it would give a short lived northerly

Edited by Summer Sun
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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted (edited)

12Z GFS problems today? It was late starting and now the low res seems to be late rolling out too.

 

Yes, it seems to be stuck at 192h. The Model has most probably crashed due to the incoming cold from the North lol Posted Image

 

Edit: SS beat me to it.

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

The way things are going the GEFS will be passing the GFS.... If thats possible Posted Image

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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted (edited)

Seems to be stuck at t192 currently

 

Posted Image

 

Looking at the high out west it could well move over the UK like it did on the 06z run, in turn it would give a short lived northerly

 

Yes Gavin, indeed the High does topple over the UK again as you suggested as seen in the pic below...

 

But at least the coldies amongst us have a little bit of potential in the output - Something we've not had for quite some time.

post-18296-0-51785500-1383588307_thumb.p

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

A northerly on the latest GFS run it has been hinting at this since yesterday. -5 bar all way down across England by next Tuesday. meanwhile ECM has some pretty chilly air come next weekend and like frosty saids could bring some wintery showers from north wales northwards. wouldn't mind abit of sun between wintery showers mind you.

the -5 line isn't over the England at all on the latest gfs run for Tuesday here is the chart to prove it.Posted Image

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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted

T204...any second now.....

 

Posted Image

 

You can view the rest of the 12z run here...

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

i think it is so with agree to disagree.

can you prove it with a chart as what you say is misleading to people who were to read your post

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Well the GFS does offer a small crumb of hope for cold lovers but it looks a temporary affair before the ridge topples, and its not really a northerly toppler. Still not enough retrogression of the high but its a start at least, the key here is that amplifying wave moving through the USA which digs the jet south near the eastern seaboard, a more favourable orientated troughing but not quite enough to deliver anything too cold as this feed is cut off too quickly. The UKMO does look similar at 144hrs but the key is after that so outside of its range.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 12z op run doesn't hold back at all, it throws everything at us....blowtorches followed by cold shots, less mild shots, it's generally very unsettled with gales at times but high pressure even gets a look in for a few days here and there. The first thing to say is the further north you are, the colder it will be and the 12z shows a blizzard across the higher ground in the interior of scotland during next weekend followed by a thaw with possible local flooding but generally for scotland, especially the northern half, the pattern has a definate wintry flavour, and this colder air does dig south to the rest of the uk from time to time. The jet is more southerly tracking now and the very cold air to the north/nw of the uk is ganging up at the end of the run and itching to cover the uk in lovely blue, the icing on the cake would be to see the 510 dam line crashing south..save that for early winter.Posted Image Posted Image

post-4783-0-84274800-1383589743_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-63503900-1383589744_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-21836200-1383589787_thumb.pn

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post-4783-0-11441300-1383589843_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-98975600-1383589862_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-04317100-1383589944_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-50213700-1383589945_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-26048600-1383589952_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-23213200-1383589969_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-78253000-1383590081_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-89805800-1383590109_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-37984500-1383590145_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

Its been a bleak couple of weeks for cold lovers, which from what I have seen delivered a few ripples into the winter forecast thread-

 

It is Autumn - first week of NOV!!!!

 

We could be seeing signs of the first Northerly setting up for day 8 - as both the GFS & ECM see amplification upstream at 168-

 

possibly nothing sustained, however the first wintry crumbs being tossed out by the models..

 

S

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Pacific ridge has taken on black-hole status!

 

ecm op..Posted ImageECH101-192.gif   naefs...Posted Imagenaefsnh-0-0-240.png

As long as it doesn't turn out like that movie...PACIFIC RIM..now that would be scary :- )
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Looks like conditions might become more anticyclonic

Posted Image

ECM looks like a rinse a repeat pattern, heights near the UK retrogress and then collapse back over the UK. 

Very similar to the GFS mean

Posted Image

Week 2 looks like either repeating brief northerly topplers or perhaps a more robust high near the UK. 

Edited by Captain shortwave
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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted

The Pacific ridge has taken on black-hole status!ecm op.. ECH101-192.gif naefs... naefsnh-0-0-240.png

Yes,you get the feeling that big pacific ridge could be a player for early winter ie,buckle the jet ,move higher up into the arctic and also the ao trending negative mid dec onwards?!?!?!?.
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted (edited)

The Pacific ridge has taken on black-hole status!

 

ecm op..Posted ImageECH101-192.gif   naefs...Posted Imagenaefsnh-0-0-240.png

One good thing, is that it will disrupt the PV and get the jet meandering more. With a bit of luck, we hopefully will see the cold side of the meandering jet further down the line. Even better, is that it will move over the Arctic and produce some impressive blocking eventually to Greenland. Heres hoping......

 

^^^^^^Beat me to it!!

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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