Jump to content

Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


Recommended Posts

It just seems, that as of this week, a Scandy High develops and brings cold air over Europe and close to us, and due to lack of trough disruption to the west of us, it doesen't allow the cold continental air to quite make it far enough west to the UK.  Just as the trough to the west of the UK doesen't disrupt and send a secondary low into Europe and under the Scandy block, there is no cold easterly (failed easterly) for the UK, even though cold continental air is only around 500 miles or less to the east of the UK.

 

It is just a very similar letdown to the above, when zonality is mild, and Iceland and even the Faroe Islands are placed correctly to see cold polar maritime zonality, and the UK is left under a mild snowless and frostless wind and rain.

 

I hate the fact of the British Weather that both the above synoptics like zonality, and this week's Scandy High, just do not deliver for the UK.  We are just 500 miles too far west this week, and in a zonal setup are often around 1000 miles too far south.

 

If we can get a Scandy High, as of this week, just why can it not deliver an easterly?  Why doesen't trough disruption happen and a low split off into Europe to allow it?

 

If we have to have zonality, why can it not be of a cold polar maritime origin?  Why can a zonal flow not orientate favourably to allow it?  Zonality isn't entirely wrong, its the orientation of it that is totally wrong for cold polar maritime air in the UK.

 

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Yes its been a blowtorch BBQ winter.

I really hate terms like that even said in jest or with tongue in cheek. If it were like mid February 1998, yeah but....A) blowtorch? August 2003 was a blowtorch. B] BBQ? Rain ruins BBQs in summer, people are discouraged having BBQs when it raining. No way this winter thus far can be even jokingly called a BBQ one considering how wet it has been. Edited by Weather-history
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Winter Arriving?

 

Issued: Friday 17th January 2014
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

 

A wintry start to February?

There have been signs for some time that temperatures would become cooler at the end of January and into the first half of February. It may be that a spell of wintry weather occurs through this period as east to northeast winds develop. Turning milder once again by the middle of the month, and overall remaining unsettled throughout.

24/1/14 to 30/1/14*

 

A trough is looking set to be through the country during the course of this week. This is going to be maintaining low pressure as the main feature of the weather, and as a result conditions are likely to be remaining unsettled. Winds may well be from the west or northwest overall, and this is going to lead to cooler temperatures. Although not expected to be cold, it will be cooler than recently. Snow is likely over the hills at times, especially in the north, but increasingly over southern hill tops at times too.

*31/1/14 to 6/2/14*

 

There are some indications that this could become a fairly stormy period. Deeper areas of low pressure could affect the country again as the jet stream intensifies. Areas of rain will be driven eastwards through all parts of the UK and Ireland bringing a risk of localised flooding. There is the possibility that as winds swing into the northwest, a brief period of snow could develop. This is though to be short lived and will mainly affect hills. This wintry mix of conditions could last through the rest of the week.

*7/2/14 to 13/2/14*

 

This week is expected to be remaining unsettled. Confidence is low, but there are again indications of some wintry weather around through this week. Sleet or snow will most likely affect eastern and southern parts of the UK with the north and west tending to be drier. Later in the week the weather may start to become milder once again.

*14/2/14 to 20/2/14*

 

A milder and changeable middle part of February. Temperatures are likely to be nearer normal. There will be further rain at times, some of it heavy and slow moving, although the winds should ease.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20140117

Link to post
Share on other sites

I really hate terms like that even said in jest or with tongue in cheek. If it were like mid February 1998, yeah but....A) blowtorch? August 2003 was a blowtorch.B] BBQ? Rain ruins BBQs in summer, people are discouraged having BBQs when it raining. No way this winter thus far can be even jokingly called a BBQ one considering how wet it has been.

 

It is said in jest only to a certain extent but only because I hate BBQ's and have never been to one in my life and because it has been wet, however these temperatures would be fine for having a pint outside a pub to me.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Last I checked this was the winter discussion thread, not the 'have a go at other members for having a different view to me thread', so I've deleted all that stuff and would definitely suggest staying on topic from here on in. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes its been a blowtorch BBQ winter, I think people think rain = cold, if it was not for the rain, I would have been wearing a t-shirt almost every day, the annoying thing about mild with rain though as I always say in summer, you have to wear a coat otherwise your soaked but the warmth makes you feel hot, its ok when the rain is light - moderate in a t-shirt but when its heavy (which it has been this winter) you get soaked, plus there is always pot holes here as they never get repaired so you get soaked from cars splashing.

 

My pet hate at the moment. My big umbrella has done more work keeping my lower half dry than what it should be used for. Also doesn't help that so many drivers feel the need to go through the puddle not around.

Link to post
Share on other sites

An article from the BBC which goes on to talk about how we might be entering a period much like the maunder minimum. Now I'm always cautious when claims like this are made but I am surprised to see it coming from the BBC.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806

Also interesting that the Met Office has decided that it will begin to monitor solar output. Are they on to something?http://www.theguardian.com/news/2013/jul/23/met-office-space-weather-forecasting

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

An article from the BBC which goes on to talk about how we might be entering a period much like the maunder minimum. Now I'm always cautious when claims like this are made but I am surprised to see it coming from the BBC.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806

 

 

Thanks for posting the link - very interesting reading and quite refreshing to see the BBC mentioning this issue. The effect of the sun on our climate appears to be an area of growing research possibly due to the recent run of cold winters and low sun activity I suspect..

 

Interesting to note how low sun activity is most likely to impact Europe compared to elsewhere in the world. Its also noteworthy how the maunder minimum period coincided with the 'little ice age' period.

 

However, as mentioned it is only one factor that influences our climate, and the article stresses the impact of global warming and man-made action as being the most influential factor going into the future.

 

Will be interesting to see if we do start to get a number of cold winters in the years ahead against the background of weak solar activity as this would give credence to the theory that the sun can drive weather patterns in our vicinity of the globe and trump a background of global warming.

 

I wonder what effect the sun has on other parts of the globe?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm now more than convinced that any cold spell this winter will always be tantalisingly close but never quite make inroads across the UK. This winter certainly has all the hallmarks of a nineties, noughties winter which generally saw a block to our East with the cold remaining bottled up on the other side of the North Sea, whilst we were stuck under a trough out to our West. The west based QBO has certainly been the party pooper this winter combined with a raging PV, at least the pattern is more susceptible to colder PM incursions over the next week or so I suppose.

Link to post
Share on other sites

James Madden has updated his forecast for February, the opening line is a bit weird
 

The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with a cold and snowy regime. This is likely to produce below the seasonal average temperatures for most parts of the country overall and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET) for February. However, some periods of moderation can be expected to develop at various stages throughout the month. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north.

 

They may also surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times, but especially more so at around the mid-month point of this forecasting period. This period is also likely to experience a number of snow events, and parts of northern and southern England are likely to be the worst hit areas overall. Some heavy falls of snow are to be expected, but the emphasis will be on a rather dry and very cold month overall.

 

The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with a cold and snowy regime  Posted Image

 

How can we continue with a cold and snowy regime when neither has arrived after 7 weeks of winter Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

James Madden has updated his forecast for February, the opening line is a bit weird

The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with a cold and snowy regime Posted Image

How can we continue with a cold and snowy regime when neither has arrived after 7 weeks of winter Posted Image

But there is still 12 days of the month left and there is an outside chance that the end of this month could be cold and snowy. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I was appalled by the attack on NW in the past week

Anyway, the following is an interesting testimony that is doing the rounds this afternoon

Very cleverly constructed and tells us what we as enthusiastic amateurs already know about the site in question;0)

 

 http://weatherman79.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/winter-forecasting-the-broken-clock-conundrum/

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone spotted his Ice floes yet?

 

Posted Image

 

james madden is the worst forecaster ever! not sure if he knows science or not, I only really know basics and my forecasts will be way more accurate than his!

 

mine will generally be, Dec and Jan, mostly mild, wet at times, windy, flood risks in places

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just watched the country file weather for the week ahead John Hammond talking about it turning colder by Friday but no mention of snow or infact the rain in NW Scotland moving across England and wales like they did this morning,  a lot of uncertainties thats for sure

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just watched the country file weather for the week ahead John Hammond talking about it turning colder by Friday but no mention of snow or infact the rain in NW Scotland moving across England and wales like they did this morning,  a lot of uncertainties thats for sure

 

hoping models will hold fridays rain off until the evening, meaning cold and dry friday, think what bbc mean, some models suggest cold/dry friday

Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone spotted his Ice floes yet?

 

Posted Image

 

Yes he did actually predict ice floes... ice floes!

 

January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Does Madden live in the scene on a Christmas card...?  This is my theory, and as such I am expecting his July 'Winter' forecast to mention oversized Robins, falling snow containing glitter and what appears to be a fat bloke in a car with no wheels being pulled through the sky by horses.......!!!!  Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...