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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Solar activity had been increasing since the back end of last Summer, so being the excellent foreseer of all things metrological he should have known that. Also with the  higher solar output and a QBO which west based, he should have foreseen that a SSW event would me more than likely later in the season, though this may happen it will be sods law to be in the wrong location for us anyway. Luckily we should see far less solar activity for next winter and with an east based QBO expect lost of ramping from Madden sometime in July.

 

Expect lots of ramping from Madden no matter what the type of winter the signals point to, don't expect it in July though, expect it before this winter is out, he usually writes his next winter forecast around the time that this one finishes, you would think someone of his great expertise would try and dissect before rushing into another forecast based on the same science.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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this time last jan we here in the midlands was under an amber warning for snow. What a different a year makes. This winter's turning out to be worse than 2011-2012.

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I think we had winter one brief night in November we're now in a slow spring already seen signs of some tree buds beginning to open.

 

Same here along with the abundance of spring bulbs

this time last jan we here in the midlands was under an amber warning for snow. What a different a year makes. This winter's turning out to be worse than 2011-2012.

 

Reminding me what the 90's were like they were quite often snow free or only had small falls

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Afternoon all :)

 

As it's my birthday and I've had the day off, I've also had an opportunity on where we are at the halfway point of winter and where we might be going:

 

I'm 53 years old today - Happy Birthday to me, Happy Birthday to me, etc. etc. -  and the number of years with snow on the ground on my birthday I can count on the fingers of one hand. The weather on my birthday can be split into three types - mild and wet (as today), mild and dry or cold and dry. I would say mild and wet at 60%, mild and dry at 25% and cold and dry at 15% sums it up.

 

For all that it is midwinter, most Januarys do not deliver for cold and snow - the stratosphere is at its coldest in many of these years while in others the synoptics don't fall right to provide snow for lowland southern England, which is in most instances pretty marginal anyway,

 

Those who think after the latest four or five winters that it's going to suddenly be different have had a rude awakening this year. All the signs for a mild winter were there and most sensible LRFs suggested that would be the case. Indeed, I'm tempted to think going forward that one of the signs of climate change is or may be colder stratospheres and lower levels of stratospheric ozone so what we have now is more likely to be a precursor for the future than a return to colder and snowier winter conditions (which will still happen though less frequently).

 

What then for the rest of Winter 2013-14 ? I never expected anything before late January but had hopes for February. While I note the encouraging comments from a number of experts re the stratosphere, the truth at the moment is that the forecasts of a split vortex by month end look dubious at best.

 

To me, it looks as though mid or even later February may see our first prolonged period of non-Atlantic weather but even that is starting to look optimistic. The recent UKMET outlook was uninspiring for coldies and the Danes are in similar vein:

 

http://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/maaned-og-saeson/

 

If you read this with the translator (or without if you're like me) then the line is that February in Denmark is going to be mild and wet with temperatures between 3-6c all day so little if any frost. The interest starts with the second paragraph which re-states the milder than usual forecast for February but then states that in March and April there is a higher probability for High Pressure to become established "west of Scandinavia". Now, the Danes talk about a NW'ly or N'ly airstream resulting but that wouldn't need much alteration to mean a more pronounced northern blocking scenario which would tie down with some of the more optimistic stratospheric forecasts.

 

I'm left then with the thought that early February will continue Atlantic-dominated with rain at times and milder conditions before we see blocking from mid and late February become established perhaps close to or possibly to the north of the British Isles. March 2014 may not be an exact repeat of March 2013 but I do think there's a lot of reasons to think it could be very blocked and possibly very cold - my money (and very nice money it is too) is on NE or E'ly winds but providing more in the way of dry and cold than outright snowy conditions. 

 

What I am increasingly coming to suspect is that for many on the forum the pain of a mild winter will be exacerbated by a thoroughly cold spring at least initially.

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A mild January so far

 

As we reach the midway point of meteorological winter, BBC Weather's Susan Powell takes a look at how the season has fared so far.

 

December 2013 Stats

 

Highs 2c above average

 

4th mildest on record

 

Mildest since 1988

 

Rest of the month and beyond

 

No significant cold weather

 

Atlantic trend continues

 

Heavier rain for north becoming a little drier for the south

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25750629

 

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I stated I thought we were going to see something simialr to 62-63.... How wrong was I Posted Image

This winter reminds me of my childhood, pretty much snowless!!

I guess the weather will always remind us you cannot predict it all the time!

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Solar activity had been increasing since the back end of last Summer, so being the excellent foreseer of all things metrological he should have known that. Also with the  higher solar output and a QBO which west based, he should have foreseen that a SSW event would me more than likely later in the season, though this may happen it will be sods law to be in the wrong location for us anyway. Luckily we should see far less solar activity for next winter and with an east based QBO expect lost of ramping from Madden sometime in July.

 

Already looking forward to next winter - an easterly QBO and weak solar activity are two very good building blocks and it would be unprecedented to see such a strong PV rule the roost as it has so far this winter.

 

I too also think this winter will have a real sting in its tail.. similar to how 2004/2005 behaved. Probably come too late for many, but will be refreshing all the same.

 

This winter so far has reminded me of the mild fests of the late 80's early 90's bar 90/91 and the late 90's and early 00's and also 06-08, back to reality.

 

However, we have a good 2 months where proper wintry weather can still occur. It would be nice just to see some snow falling, or to see a bit of frost lingering in sheltered spots through the day.

Edited by damianslaw
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Afternoon all Posted Image

 

As it's my birthday and I've had the day off, I've also had an opportunity on where we are at the halfway point of winter and where we might be going:

 

I'm 53 years old today - Happy Birthday to me, Happy Birthday to me, etc. etc. -  and the number of years with snow on the ground on my birthday I can count on the fingers of one hand. The weather on my birthday can be split into three types - mild and wet (as today), mild and dry or cold and dry. I would say mild and wet at 60%, mild and dry at 25% and cold and dry at 15% sums it up.

 

For all that it is midwinter, most Januarys do not deliver for cold and snow - the stratosphere is at its coldest in many of these years while in others the synoptics don't fall right to provide snow for lowland southern England, which is in most instances pretty marginal anyway,

 

Those who think after the latest four or five winters that it's going to suddenly be different have had a rude awakening this year. All the signs for a mild winter were there and most sensible LRFs suggested that would be the case. Indeed, I'm tempted to think going forward that one of the signs of climate change is or may be colder stratospheres and lower levels of stratospheric ozone so what we have now is more likely to be a precursor for the future than a return to colder and snowier winter conditions (which will still happen though less frequently).

 

What then for the rest of Winter 2013-14 ? I never expected anything before late January but had hopes for February. While I note the encouraging comments from a number of experts re the stratosphere, the truth at the moment is that the forecasts of a split vortex by month end look dubious at best.

 

To me, it looks as though mid or even later February may see our first prolonged period of non-Atlantic weather but even that is starting to look optimistic. The recent UKMET outlook was uninspiring for coldies and the Danes are in similar vein:

 

http://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/maaned-og-saeson/

 

If you read this with the translator (or without if you're like me

 

Quite easy with English and the German weather words I've learnt from Wetterzentrale (tryk=Boden*druck*). :lol: Love the way temperatures "crawl up the scale" instead of boring BBC speak "gradually rising". And the "monthshift"- that should be an English word!

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A mild January so far

 

As we reach the midway point of meteorological winter, BBC Weather's Susan Powell takes a look at how the season has fared so far.

 

December 2013 Stats

 

Highs 2c above average

 

4th mildest on record

 

Mildest since 1988

 

Rest of the month and beyond

 

No significant cold weather

 

Atlantic trend continues

 

Heavier rain for north becoming a little drier for the south

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25750629

 

 

 

 

I would have to agree with her initially, she says 'Beyond', depends how far beyond she means, into February its not certain of course but no potent cold / heavy low level snow remains strong favourite but beyond that im not so sure.

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what a depressing posts from summer sun and stodge well i hope we get to c some snow before this winters out. I do partly disagree with part of your post stodge, i don't think we will c less cold and snowy winters i think we will c mor extreme weather events in our part of the world and yes they could be linked to climate change. I c folks talking about strat warming however even if we get a ssw it doesn't mean automatic cold and snow for us in the u.k. 1 good thing for this winter with all this rain at least the greedy water companies won't have any reason to place drout orders and put up the prices next summer. Happy bday stodge.

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what a depressing posts from summer sun and stodge well i hope we get to c some snow before this winters out. I do partly disagree with part of your post stodge, i don't think we will c less cold and snowy winters i think we will c mor extreme weather events in our part of the world and yes they could be linked to climate change. I c folks talking about strat warming however even if we get a ssw it doesn't mean automatic cold and snow for us in the u.k. 1 good thing for this winter with all this rain at least the greedy water companies won't have any reason to place drout orders and put up the prices next summer. Happy bday stodge.

 

To be fair though, it has already been stated that even some highly qualified meteorologists are only just getting to grips with the polar stratosphere's influence on winter setups, also as stated above, depends how far into feb Susan Powell is talking about, I would suggest the possibility at least of any return to zonality not lasting too long, I would very much doubt a very potent Easterly will occur for the rest of Jan and the first few days of Feb, however, if we could keep these runs going that are splitting the vortex just long enough until these strat warmings take effect, we could have a very interesting second week of Feb, I certainly would caution against using the EC32 run right at the end of the forecasting period.

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what a depressing posts from summer sun and stodge well i hope we get to c some snow before this winters out. I do partly disagree with part of your post stodge, i don't think we will c less cold and snowy winters i think we will c mor extreme weather events in our part of the world and yes they could be linked to climate change. I c folks talking about strat warming however even if we get a ssw it doesn't mean automatic cold and snow for us in the u.k. 1 good thing for this winter with all this rain at least the greedy water companies won't have any reason to place drout orders and put up the prices next summer. Happy bday stodge.

Thanks for the good wishes, my friend, and you'd be happy with some of tonight's Model Output particularly GEM.

 

I've never been confident about this winter - too many indicators were pointing the wrong way for the coldies from an early stage. Even the stratosphere may not "rescue" us this time with an SSW though I do think the vortex will be weakened through the rest of this month and into February.

 

Come March and I do think things could get very interesting - 2013 will tell you that it's perfectly possible to have snow in March. The Danes are talking up the idea of northern blocking and with a shattered vortex, there are possibilities but no more.

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Even though this winter has been dreadful for the midlands southwards, in relation to mildness it could of been a lot worse like 1988/89 for example, apart from the past few days it has felt quite chilly this January  especially North Midlands northwards, showing you that even mild atlantic dominated weather can feel chilly just like July average weather can feel very warm.

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Wouldn't bother me if we returned to winters pre-2009, because we got decent falls then too - this winter is even worse. If we fail to get any settling snow in January or February, it will be a personal first for me.

Edited by cheese
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Even though this winter has been dreadful for the midlands southwards, in relation to mildness it could of been a lot worse like 1988/89 for example, apart from the past few days it has felt quite chilly this January  especially North Midlands northwards, showing you that even mild atlantic dominated weather can feel chilly just like July average weather can feel very warm.

Its not just the Midlands southwards, it hasn't been chilly here at all. In fact we've only had 7 days with maxima below 7C all winter and one day below 5C all winter so far. Nights have been equally as bad with just one air frost which came last week. We've not had any sleet or snow falling or lying at 0900 either.

 

As for mean temps, the mean temp for 1st Dec - 16th Jan is 4.7C here, but this winter is currently running on 6.5C, nearly 2C above average. In 34 years, only 2006/07 and 1988/89 were milder and both of those were snowier and had more air frosts up to this point.

 

Its been as dire a winter as one could imagine for cold weather up to this point.

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Its not just the Midlands southwards, it hasn't been chilly here at all. In fact we've only had 7 days with maxima below 7C all winter and one day below 5C all winter so far. Nights have been equally as bad with just one air frost which came last week. We've not had any sleet or snow falling or lying at 0900 either.

 

As for mean temps, the mean temp for 1st Dec - 16th Jan is 4.7C here, but this winter is currently running on 6.5C, nearly 2C above average. In 34 years, only 2006/07 and 1988/89 were milder and both of those were snowier and had more air frosts up to this point.

 

Its been as dire a winter as one could imagine for cold weather up to this point.

 

 

Yes its been a blowtorch BBQ winter, I think people think rain = cold, if it was not for the rain, I would have been wearing a t-shirt almost every day, the annoying thing about mild with rain though as I always say in summer, you have to wear a coat otherwise your soaked but the warmth makes you feel hot, its ok when the rain is light - moderate in a t-shirt but when its heavy (which it has been this winter) you get soaked, plus there is always pot holes here as they never get repaired so you get soaked from cars splashing.

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man i hope this winter doesn't turn out like 88-89 if it does it would really take the jaffa cakes. At least w2006-2007 we did get quite a bit of snow late jan and into feb if i remembor.

Edited by AVFC.
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Why is zonality almost always mild in the UK?  Without any significant northern blocking, even with a zonal flow, it is possible to get much colder weather in the UK if the orientation of a zonal flow is favourable to allow polar maritime air to cover the country:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840116.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840117.gif

 

A ZONAL flow, but notice the NW-SE orientation, and Azores High well out to the SW, no northern blocking in sight, and guess what, heavy snowfall to areas from around Manchester northwards.

 

Now a ridge of high pressure moves in:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840119.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840120.gif

 

A sort of battleground takes place:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840122.gif

But it is not a real battleground, as Atlantic air wins and fully breaks through:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif

But guess what, heavy snowfall across many areas from the Midlands northwards, and even a little snow further south too, in ZONALITY, with northern blocking well too far north to influence the UK with a cold flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840125.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840126.gif

Wide areas of the country were snow covered through this period and for up to a week in total, in a ZONAL setup, with no significant northern blocking close enough to influence the UK.

 

If we have to have zonality, why can it not be of the cold type, and of a polar maritime origin?  Looking at mild zonal setups in the UK, areas further north than the UK such as Iceland and even the Faroe Islands, often do well out of cold polar maritime zonality, but it always seems that the UK is around 1000 miles too far south to get any cold polar maritime air out of zonality and be under a "cold" zonal setup.  Zonality doesen't necesserily have to mean mild weather for the UK, it is just its orientation that results in that.  It only needs to track more NW-SE and the Azores High to be further south, then the UK would be in business to get cold polar maritime zonality.

 

To me it is the worst type of weather that exists in the British climate, that a zonal setup most often doesen't deliver, like it did in the above examples and like it often will do to areas further north than the UK.  Why doesen't cold zonality happen in the UK.  The only example in recent years of cold zonality that I can think of was around the 19th/20th Jan 2009.  Higher ground in particular from Manchester northwards saw some snow out of it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090119.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090120.gif

 

Will we ever see the likes of cold zonality in the UK ever again?

Why does zonality usually not deliver anything else but rain and mild temperatures with little frost let alone snow?

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Why is zonality almost always mild in the UK?  Without any significant northern blocking, even with a zonal flow, it is possible to get much colder weather in the UK if the orientation of a zonal flow is favourable to allow polar maritime air to cover the country: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840116.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840117.gif A ZONAL flow, but notice the NW-SE orientation, and Azores High well out to the SW, no northern blocking in sight, and guess what, heavy snowfall to areas from around Manchester northwards. Now a ridge of high pressure moves in:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840119.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840120.gif A sort of battleground takes place:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840122.gifBut it is not a real battleground, as Atlantic air wins and fully breaks through:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gifBut guess what, heavy snowfall across many areas from the Midlands northwards, and even a little snow further south too, in ZONALITY, with northern blocking well too far north to influence the UK with a cold flow.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840125.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840126.gifWide areas of the country were snow covered through this period and for up to a week in total, in a ZONAL setup, with no significant northern blocking close enough to influence the UK. If we have to have zonality, why can it not be of the cold type, and of a polar maritime origin?  Looking at mild zonal setups in the UK, areas further north than the UK such as Iceland and even the Faroe Islands, often do well out of cold polar maritime zonality, but it always seems that the UK is around 1000 miles too far south to get any cold polar maritime air out of zonality and be under a "cold" zonal setup.  Zonality doesen't necesserily have to mean mild weather for the UK, it is just its orientation that results in that.  It only needs to track more NW-SE and the Azores High to be further south, then the UK would be in business to get cold polar maritime zonality. To me it is the worst type of weather that exists in the British climate, that a zonal setup most often doesen't deliver, like it did in the above examples and like it often will do to areas further north than the UK.  Why doesen't cold zonality happen in the UK.  The only example in recent years of cold zonality that I can think of was around the 19th/20th Jan 2009.  Higher ground in particular from Manchester northwards saw some snow out of it.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090119.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090120.gif Will we ever see the likes of cold zonality in the UK ever again?Why does zonality usually not deliver anything else but rain and mild temperatures with little frost let alone snow?

LolThe annual NElyblast cold zonality and 1984 post.And you ask the question will we ever see cold zonality again? You ask will we ever see a cold April again, a couple of years back?Same old, same old.
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