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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    I think WSI weather an American forecasting company said that Europe would be mild throughout the winter, in fact quite a few LRF's went for mild rather than cold (companies don't come to mind at the moment).

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    I think WSI weather an American forecasting company said that Europe would be mild throughout the winter, in fact quite a few LRF's went for mild rather than cold (companies don't come to mind at the moment).

     

    WSI got December wrong for the UK they said it would be colder than normal though January is looking pretty good at the moment

     

    November's update for winter

     

    WSI: Cold Early, Warmer Late This Winter in Europe

     

    Strong Polar Vortex May Limit Biggest Cold Risk to December

     

    Andover, MA, 27 November 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the aggregate winter period (December-February) across parts of southern and southeastern mainland Europe and southwestern Russia, with above-normal temperatures expected elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “We continue to see indications that the coldest weather will occur early in the winter, with warmer risks more likely in the back of half of the winter. The polar vortex remains much stronger than normal, and many of our internal models suggest that it will more difficult to trigger a sudden warming of the stratospheric polar vortex that often precedes very cold periods in February or March. However, in the near term, we do expect widespread below-normal temperatures across mainland Europe during at least the first half of December. We expect that these colder risks will fade as the winter progresses, resulting in higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures heading into January and February.â€In December, WSI forecasts:

     

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Colder than normalNorthern Mainland – Colder than normalSouthern Mainland – Colder than normal, except IberiaIn January, WSI forecasts:

     

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far east and western RussiaSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normalIn February, WSI forecasts:

     

    Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normalSouthern Mainland – Colder than normal

     

    http://www.wsi.com/e5caee4e-ce08-42ea-8503-945d6693f3db/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

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    James Madden's forecast for next week is looking a wee bit shaky

     

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    “January is likely to become progressively colder. It will be a very cold and exceptionally snowy month overall, especially in the second half.â€

     

    I think he will have a hard time getting out of this one, or will he manage a way?

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    James Madden's forecast for next week is looking a wee bit shaky

     

    Posted Image

     

    “January is likely to become progressively colder. It will be a very cold and exceptionally snowy month overall, especially in the second half.â€

     

    I think he will have a hard time getting out of this one, or will he manage a way?

    does anyone still take any notice of JM these days?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The curse of the Express has struck again it appears

     

    Thursday 9th they ran a front page story on "the beat from the east"

     

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    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/452773/Beast-from-the-east-to-bring-SNOW-freezing-winds-and-weather-chaos-to-the-UK

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    James Madden's forecast for next week is looking a wee bit shaky

     

    Posted Image

     

    “January is likely to become progressively colder. It will be a very cold and exceptionally snowy month overall, especially in the second half.â€

     

    I think he will have a hard time getting out of this one, or will he manage a way?

    He'll probably edit the page to show the USA and edit south east to northeast!!

    or he'll just ignore it and move onto feb's freeze

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Would be most grateful if someone with the info would do the honours around 11.30pm tonight,  BA, snowking, Fergieweather maybe?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Looks like its not good news then, I get the feeling if it was, someone would have leaked it!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    There be leaks from the rain that's all I heard!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    I'm still onto the prospects of a cold winter after a stormy November, yes their be frost yes we would have mountain snow but it is November! but still interesting see where these elements bite first. You know what this winter is a difficult one to forecast for me, the Jet stream is in power the Atlantic active and mild, and this theme keeping going mostly I expect, but something noticable the track of lows, it's that sudden southerly movement that's been happening the last few years... 

    This ^^^ what I said back in early Nov, and very much what has been with the Jet continuing strong, I went for late cold but severe, can't find my posts on what I stated about the Scandi high and northeasterly from mid January onwards but looks good to happen (if you like cold that is! even mild fans want a change I bet!)

     

    Looking back at some others posts in here and the forecast thread many if not most people predicted it to be getting cold late January. This could happen soon, and the point is most forecasts/posts regarding the winter prospects went for cold late winter and we are here now at this point and the watch is on!

    Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    The last noticeable easterly during January was in 1996.

    It took ages to develop though, the block was to NE but there was a stalemate across the UK, a bit like what some of the models have been showing. It wasn't until the final third of January went into the east and the last week when the very cold air arrived.

    Forecasts from January 1996

    http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqOqjWCczNHeD-DGVCNNRe0

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    James Madden is back with an update, he seems to blame NASA and a solar flare (??) for his winter forecast going pearshaped, can't make much sense of it though to be honest

     

    http://app6.websitetonight.com/projects2/3/3/8/5/2015833/uploads/WinterReport2UKIRE.pdf (posted on his Facebook)

     

      It is no coincidence that an X-rated solar flare (strongest type) is Earth directed and we then say goodbye to the exceptionally cold weather (easterlies) and copious amounts of snow that looked likely to develop throughout the week commencing the 13th January 2014.

     

    It looks like he will be back next year however with yet another forecast of a Day After Tomorrow winter

     

    However, the vast majority of winters over the coming years and decades will still be exceptionally cold and snowy due to the scientific and historical data that I have analysed repeatedly

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    James Madden is back with an update, he seems to blame NASA and a solar flare (??) for his winter forecast going pearshaped, can't make much sense of it though to be honest

     

    http://app6.websitetonight.com/projects2/3/3/8/5/2015833/uploads/WinterReport2UKIRE.pdf (posted on his Facebook)

     

      It is no coincidence that an X-rated solar flare (strongest type) is Earth directed and we then say goodbye to the exceptionally cold weather (easterlies) and copious amounts of snow that looked likely to develop throughout the week commencing the 13th January 2014.

     

    It looks like he will be back next year however with yet another forecast of a Day After Tomorrow winter

     

    However, the vast majority of winters over the coming years and decades will still be exceptionally cold and snowy due to the scientific and historical data that I have analysed repeatedly

     

     

    haven't got time to read it now but at least it looks like a start though, 1% granted but baby steps and all that, it is the first time I have seen him admit he got a forecast wrong albeit blaming x,y and z but a start none the less.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    This ^^^ what I said back in early Nov, and very much what has been with the Jet continuing strong, I went for late cold but severe, can't find my posts on what I stated about the Scandi high and northeasterly from mid January onwards but looks good to happen (if you like cold that is! even mild fans want a change I bet!)

     

    Looking back at some others posts in here and the forecast thread many if not most people predicted it to be getting cold late January. This could happen soon, and the point is most forecasts/posts regarding the winter prospects went for cold late winter and we are here now at this point and the watch is on!

    Having been on this forum for many years..i think from memory..most winter forecasts i have read on here in the past always go for a colder second half of winter from late January and esp February being the coldest part of the season.

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    Frontal snow..??

    Coming up through Northants and Leicestershire this afternoon, gritting is being carried out by the HA on the M1. This would normally happen post rush hour if frost and ice are expected overnight, not mid afternoon.

    the only time they grit in this fashion is when snow is expected.

    We did get wet sleet for a short while.

    Edited by matty40s
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    The last noticeable easterly during January was in 1996.It took ages to develop though, the block was to NE but there was a stalemate across the UK, a bit like what some of the models have been showing. It wasn't until the final third of January went into the east and the last week when the very cold air arrived.Forecasts from January 1996http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqOqjWCczNHeD-DGVCNNRe0

     

    Yes the last time we saw a proper easterly blast in Jan was 1996, It was a good spell which heralded a very wintry February with lots of snow. We have seen weak easterlies of sorts occur in 2001 and last year in Jan but they have been rare. We are more likely to see full on easterlies in February and indeed March than January.

     

    When was the last time we had anticylonic conditions overhead i.e. when low pressure wasn't dominating - an age ago- back in July... quite unusual to see such a long period of low pressure dominance with barely a handful of dry days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Did anyone else see BBC weather at 22:37 after the regional news last night with Nick Miller when it first went on and snow was in the globe I thought something major had changed for a few seconds! but then he press his clicker and compared last year to this year as they say what a difference a year makes

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    I reckon old Mad Madden's forecast would have been about spot on for the United States, what a Winter they are having. Some folk get all the luck hey! He couldn't have been more wrong about ours and will be interesting to read how he comments on this come April! 

     

    I have been lurking in the model thread and what an emotional rollercoaster it has been. One minute an easterley set-up the next its gone! I was feeling really quite positive about this Winter back in November but am really struggling to find any enthusiasm for it now. Can't help but feel it is going to be a complete wash out. I really hope I am wrong as I was so hoping that my 6 month old Goldie puppy would get to experience at least one descent fall of snow! Ce La Vie! 

     

    Off to find the nearest birdge now!!! lol Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

    I reckon old Mad Madden's forecast would have been about spot on for the United States, what a Winter they are having. Some folk get all the luck hey! He couldn't have been more wrong about ours and will be interesting to read how he comments on this come April! 

     

    I have been lurking in the model thread and what an emotional rollercoaster it has been. One minute an easterley set-up the next its gone! I was feeling really quite positive about this Winter back in November but am really struggling to find any enthusiasm for it now. Can't help but feel it is going to be a complete wash out. I really hope I am wrong as I was so hoping that my 6 month old Goldie puppy would get to experience at least one descent fall of snow! Ce La Vie! Do not give up so easily,there is plenty of time left for a proper cold spell so leave the bridge alone for the present. Read the strat thread which does offer more than a few chances of the cold most of us crave for. Talking about Madden,I am wondering how he will wriggle out of this years winter forecast as he is already wrong to a large degree even if the weather turned bitterly cold now.

     

    Off to find the nearest birdge now!!! lol Posted Image Posted Image

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    When was the last time we had anticylonic conditions overhead i.e. when low pressure wasn't dominating - an age ago- back in July... quite unusual to see such a long period of low pressure dominance with barely a handful of dry days.

     

    How about the end of last November and early December? Even from before middle of November bar a few days interlude.

    Edited by Interitus
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    For those who didn't see it here is the BBC weather broadcast from 22:37 last night starting with the snow globe for the first time in several months as they compare the weather from this time last year to what we have now

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03pqb68/BBC_Weather_14_01_2014/

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    According to James Madden's latest FB post increased solar activity is to blame for the late arrival of winter

     

    http://app6.websitetonight.com/projects2/3/3/8/5/2015833/uploads/WinterReport2UKIRE.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    According to James Madden's latest FB post increased solar activity is to blame for the late arrival of winter

     

    http://app6.websitetonight.com/projects2/3/3/8/5/2015833/uploads/WinterReport2UKIRE.pdf

    Solar activity had been increasing since the back end of last Summer, so being the excellent foreseer of all things metrological he should have known that. Also with the  higher solar output and a QBO which west based, he should have foreseen that a SSW event would me more than likely later in the season, though this may happen it will be sods law to be in the wrong location for us anyway. Luckily we should see far less solar activity for next winter and with an east based QBO expect lost of ramping from Madden sometime in July.

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