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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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can anyone tell me exactly when the current solar cycle is meant to end, as the sun is meant to go extremely quiet after that, sorry its a bit off topic

Not sure they actually end, I know we're more or less at the peak at the moment (and that was weaker than forecast) - in the longer term the next decade solar activity is expected to drop.

 

As for this winter it's been pretty dire our coldest day in these parts was actually back in November with a daily max of 5.7c on the 19th which tells you everything you need to know. Now it looks like we're not going to get any cold from this episode and possibly conditions turning zonal again after that, doesn't bode well for February in my opinion.

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Well were now about halfway through winter and I've had no lying snow.

The outlook to the 17th is cyclonic with cold air not sufficiently west to be better than cool.

The stratosphere is warming but not significantly to provide anything more than a temporary displacement and tends to lag anyway.

....

I can't see a below average outcome for January now and frankly I'm not confident that February will be that special.

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Crewe-

C;mon old bean Posted Image Tell us where the LRG went horribly wrong!!!

When I saw CC's postback in November about this 'being the one' I had visions of unrelenting zonality,funnily enough...... Posted Image Posted Image

There's no need to be an @rse about it. At least CC was brave enough to stick his neck out and make a forecast. Good on him I say.

Edited by cheese
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Anyway,seeing as we have had absolutely no winter weather round here perhaps we can rename this thread 2013/4 the winter that never was....:(

Can you also tell me what the lottery numbers are for tonight whilst you have your crystal ball out?!
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This winter is doing my nut in. So much hype then nothing!!!! then more hype then nothing!!! The charts are an absolute joke as well, total waste of time. America is blatantly stealing all our cold.

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Well, the 3rd frost of Winter 2013/14 here tonight and the 2nd in just two days.  Keep the faith, this Winter is on the up!!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Don
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I think the only ones who got this winter correct was Accuweather

 

Roger J Smith's forecast has been pretty good too so far.  However, the only part that has gone wrong for him is his predicted January cold spell!!  However, there has been some sort of attempt at it so he's not been way off.  So overall, very frustrating.......

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Roger J Smith's forecast has been pretty good too so far.  However, the only part that has gone wrong for him is his predicted January cold spell!!  However, there has been some sort of attempt at it so he's not been way off.  So overall, very frustrating.......

 

Seems to have done well in picking the general character of December, especially given he must have known it would not have been a popular forecast!

I thought it was risky for him to mention that Christmas Day specifically had a good signal for being mild. That is very high precision forecast which turned out to be inaccurate. It wasn't really mild on the day or the days either side.

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It was fascinating to see how many of you got excited earlier this week as the charts quickly changed fortune to show a cold spell and so many treated it as gospel. Was this sudden change not enough to infer that a sudden change to downgrading could happen (Which it did of course)? Some really need to stop taking every run at face value and take trends not each run as the be all and end all. Then the amount of frustration would be far less. Sure, this Winter isnt living up to much so far but to be honest kits not far off a more normal winter imo, just that the last few have severely distorted peoples views sadly and are expecting it every year. Its not going to happen. On the plus side, it seems the colder the winter the worse the summer seemed to be so maybe if this winter isnt cold and snowy, who knows but maybe the overriding pattern may be in place to deliver a decent summer. :)

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It was fascinating to see how many of you got excited earlier this week as the charts quickly changed fortune to show a cold spell and so many treated it as gospel. Was this sudden change not enough to infer that a sudden change to downgrading could happen (Which it did of course)? Some really need to stop taking every run at face value and take trends not each run as the be all and end all. Then the amount of frustration would be far less. Sure, this Winter isnt living up to much so far but to be honest kits not far off a more normal winter imo, just that the last few have severely distorted peoples views sadly and are expecting it every year. Its not going to happen. On the plus side, it seems the colder the winter the worse the summer seemed to be so maybe if this winter isnt cold and snowy, who knows but maybe the overriding pattern may be in place to deliver a decent summer. Posted Image

Sorry,you are not quite right there,i know what you mean but there is no correlation with cold winters and poor summers and some may argue the opposite besides we already had 2 poor summers of 2007 and 2008 before these last few cold winters arrived!

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I think the only ones who got this winter correct was Accuweather

Not to toot my own horn but I went milder than average for Dec and Jan (less mild in Dec though than it actually was). I'm much less confident about my cold Feb though.
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7 weeks of winter left. Time for a cold spell but this winter will not be remembered for cold only the wind, rain, flooding.

Edited by MPG
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Winter Thread? Thought it was still autumn the way the weather is ... People say time for change but in reality the sun is starting to get stronger now and by February and march hit it be more of a struggle for any snow that might fall to lay.

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Probably end up getting some half hearted cold spell in feb and that will be that.  One slight air frost this winter here (-0.4c) and yet another batch of rain approaching my location as i type, temp 8c,the story of this winter so far.

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Winter Thread? Thought it was still autumn the way the weather is ... People say time for change but in reality the sun is starting to get stronger now and by February and march hit it be more of a struggle for any snow that might fall to lay.

That old chestnut again! :)
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Winter Thread? Thought it was still autumn the way the weather is ... People say time for change but in reality the sun is starting to get stronger now and by February and march hit it be more of a struggle for any snow that might fall to lay.

 

Remember March 2013? I know we didn't get much lying snow in the NE at low levels but some areas got a right old dumping of snow, given the right conditions March can be just as bad as winter the only difference is the longer days and stronger sun

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