Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[Cheshire Freeze]

So, in other words, you're guessing?

 

All forecasting long range is a guess. Some are just more informed guesses than others.

[feb1991blizzard]

So, in other words, you're guessing?

 

 

You getting scared in case my forecast beats other more informed ones? just as my forecast of the housing market slump blew the chancellor' s out of the water.

Edited October 31, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Methuselah]

All forecasting long range is a guess. Some are just more informed guesses than others.

And, if previous years are anything to go by, they'll all be wrong...

You getting scared in case my forecast beats other more informed ones? just as my forecast of the housing market slump blew the chancellor' s out of the water.

Not really, no...my guess has a similar chance of success as yours...IMO, not a lot! 

[cooling climate]

I think the pacific side needs to be watched as this is where we will see ridging

trying to push further north into the Arctic which will promote wave breaking

(warming in the strat) and HLB's during second half of November onwards.

This Winter will be anything but zonal mild muck.

[cheese]

All forecasting long range is a guess. Some are just more informed guesses than others.

Indeed. I have no idea why people display such a condescending and snide attitude towards long range forecasts - for the most part, on here, they're just a bit of fun. If they're wrong, they're wrong - no harm done.

Edited October 31, 2013 by cheese

[feb1991blizzard]

And, if previous years are anything to go by, they'll all be wrong...

Not really, no...my guess has a similar chance of success as yours...IMO, not a lot! 

 

We will see, but I wont take the credit if it comes off, blame me if it doesent by all means but give others the credit if it does, I am in a no win situation but come on lets get pasted!!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Indeed. I have no idea why people display such a condescending and snide attitude towards long range forecasts - for the most part, on here, they're just a bit of fun. If they're wrong, they're wrong - no harm done.

 

Yes, as long as the person admits they are for a bit of fun of course, and doesn't issue them on the pretence that they are infallible.

[-uksnow-]

Its Mark Vogan i know, but hes going for colder and snowier W Europe this winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think the pacific side needs to be watched as this is where we will see ridging

trying to push further north into the Arctic which will promote wave breaking

(warming in the strat) and HLB's during second half of November onwards.

This Winter will be anything but zonal mild muck.

 

Do you think we could get something decent before xmas and do you think we need some ridging over the Northern Russian / Siberian sector of the vortex so we can 'pop the ballloon'?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Its Mark Vogan i know, but hes going for colder and snowier W Europe this winter.

 

warmer then in W Europe

[Methuselah]

Its Mark Vogan i know, but hes going for colder and snowier W Europe this winter.

Now there's a surprise...

[Buriedundersnow]

finally found a few of my 2010 pics and I would take something close to this which wasn't bad considering where I am theres usually a big snow shield up

 

[Don]

Have there been any winters that delivered deep cold in spite of the sun?

 

I believe Winter 1981/82 occurred during high solar acivity?

[johnholmes]

Sorry just moved from Pakistan to Uk so i will commit an error here and there..

 

don't worry about that my geography of Pakistan would be far worse

[johnholmes]

Do you think we could get something decent before xmas and do you think we need some ridging over the Northern Russian / Siberian sector of the vortex so we can 'pop the ballloon'?

 

come of feb - no one and I mean no one can really know with anything approaching reality  just what December will bring let alone the rest of winter.

It really is time, other than the fun side, for folks to take a reality check with anyone 'pretending' to know what is going to happen this winter.

Yes we can all look at the possible indicators and try and use these to suggest the most likely end result but in all honesty how many times out of ten will anyone get it right, amateur or professional. If it is less than 50% then toss a coin!

Edited October 31, 2013 by johnholmes

[stewfox]

finally found a few of my 2010 pics and I would take something close to this which wasn't bad considering where I am theres usually a big snow shield up

 

Image030.jpgImage031.jpgImage032.jpgImage033.jpg

 

In need things can change quickly

 

Here in Ambrosden we hit 42c on 3rd November 2010 , people were talking about winters over.

 

By 18th December I took a picture of my Gran walking past a 65ft snow drift temp -10c

 

All to play for still

Edited October 31, 2013 by stewfox

[feb1991blizzard]

come of feb - no one and I mean no one can really know with anything approaching reality  just what December will bring let alone the rest of winter.

It really is time, other than the fun side, for folks to take a reality check with anyone 'pretending' to know what is going to happen this winter.

Yes we can all look at the possible indicators and try and use these to suggest the most likely end result but in all honesty how many times out of ten will anyone get it right, amateur or professional. If it is less than 50% then toss a coin!

 

 

Agree we cant know for sure John but we used to wait for GP's winter forecast with baited breath, how many times out of ten did he

get it right? (baring in mind 50% being a guesscast and 60% a decent effort if your talking seasonally), I would say his strike rate was above that overall and nearer to 80% with winter forecasting.

[stewfox]

Agree we cant know for sure John but we used to wait for GP's winter forecast with baited breath, how many times out of ten did he

get it right? (baring in mind 50% being a guesscast and 60% a decent effort if your talking seasonally), I would say his strike rate was above that overall and nearer to 80% with winter forecasting.

 

Some trends were right over recent years but specifics even for whole months were miles out. Anyone getting it 80% right would be leading the CET comp by 100s of points.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess

 

My view 50% guess and 60% for a  seasoned forecaster getting it generally right.

[Buriedundersnow]

Agree we cant know for sure John but we used to wait for GP's winter forecast with baited breath, how many times out of ten did he

get it right? (baring in mind 50% being a guesscast and 60% a decent effort if your talking seasonally), I would say his strike rate was above that overall and nearer to 80% with winter forecasting.

 

theres bount to be someone in here that's heard a wee word about winter from GP and there just keeping it to thereselves

[feb1991blizzard]

theres bount to be someone in here that's heard a wee word about winter from GP and there just keeping it to thereselves

 

Yes, his name is ****

[Buriedundersnow]

Yes, his name is ****

 

that we will never know but there has to be someone

[Mark Neal.]

James madden?

[Barry12]

theres bount to be someone in here that's heard a wee word about winter from GP and there just keeping it to thereselves

Send me £20 and I may just know a thing or two

[Catacol]

ive written of this winter already I think solar activity has certainly destroyed chances this winter but we still have the next solar lull to come at some point so as this winter goes vortex is going to be very intense and not in a favoured area.

and by mid novemeber we will know winter is going to be a pretty above average winter with plenty of wind and rain anything settled will be short lived anything cold will most likely be from arctic cold snaps instead of cold spell as depressions pass through so most wintry stuff will be mostly restricted to the north.

Solar activity has gone back to low levels today and is forecast in the immediate future to stay low. I think to scrap the winter on the basis of solar factors at this stage is a tad premature. As far as I can tell the sun is one rogue factor that obeys no rules and comes and goes as it pleases.

[throwoff]

Exactly. The sun is an unpredictable beast.

Anyone who writes of winter needs a good lie down in a dark room for an hour or so.

Models as previously mentioned are now showing a possible cool down by mid November. Anyone who moans about mild weather now must have not been around in 2010...

Edited October 31, 2013 by throwoff