Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[hillbilly]

January and February are the best months to receive winter weather, or even better would be mid-December to mid-February. Cold spells (bar the odd one or two) are pretty useless after that and a lot less popular as the vast majority look for spring in spring.

march is colder than December......1947...2013??

[maw368]

is piers corbyn`s  metholdgy anything to go by ?

Hi Bryan.I personally think he is the best forecaster I have encountered. People are too quick to dismiss him, often because they have just believed what others have said without looking for themselves, because people get into clicks and dislike anyone outside of their little cozy groups, because people dislike any competition despite credibility etc.For example, someone here answered you with a NO, he is not credible, despite admitting not even following his work, or most likely not ever having purchased his forecast and not honestly knowing what Piers has forecast, which is very common, people believe what they hear, don't bother seeing his forecasts especially as they have to be bought and just speculate... which is very very unscientific. How can you say he is bad or got things wrong if you never bought his forecast to start with. Thats just you lying.Piers is well qualified for a start, unlike many on weather forums who do love to speculate and assume, while Piers follows strict scientific methodology, which unless coming from a science background, you often wont understand what these strict processes are and why they are important. Piers is gaining some serious reputation around the world, he is getting recognised by large organisations, governments, and political figures. He is probably the most recognised weather forecaster outside of organisations like the MO at the moment, that you will come across. How many guys here have been invited to parliament to discuss weather with government? How many here has been invited to other countries to talk weather with their governments?If you guys want any credibility in this field of science that you are discussing, then don't ignorantly ridicule another scientist before learning his methods and, actually seeing his forecasts, while giving him a sensible enough amount of time to see if there is any reasonable success.Here is a few examples of my experience with Piers. 4 weeks ahead he forecast a red warning for snow in my town. Met office picked it up 5 days ahead, but they chopped and changed wildly in their predictions, going from a yellow warning to amber and finally a red warning the evening before the supposed snow event. Piers doesn't only make a 4 week ahead prediction but he doesn't chop and change (which isn't really a prediction if you chop and change as you would be making a new prediction each time). Despite him predicting it 4 weeks ahead without change or update, he was impressively... correct!

 

This pattern has been the case over the last 2 years that I have followed him. He does make mistakes but they are blown out of proportion by the ignorant, because every forecaster gets it wrong, but I think people are jealous of Piers amazing success and make a larger deal than they ought to. He forecasted a storm this year with damaging winds, low pressure system, sweeping across parts of the UK, 4 weeks before, while the Met O had not a single signal of such event a week before, so accurate he was that his followers called it Piers Corbyn storm in credit to his success.One such example you could use to check out his ability is the storm that he has forecast for new year which had not been recognised by the Met O and many others over the previous 4 weeks. Piers does give a 2 day variability on his forecasts, 2 days before or after the said dates but that is entirely understandable considering Piers is forecasting a lot of highly variable bits of data over an incredibly long period of time. So Piers has another bad storm with 90+ mph winds hitting parts of the UK between tommorrow and the 2nd of January. If he gets it right again, another significant event to add to the list that he forecast weeks ahead while many model watchers were still guessing at what's the weather going to be next week, because that' about as far ahead you can get any reliability from these models. Even then they are wrong far to frequently.

Edited December 29, 2013 by maw368

[Methuselah]

is piers corbyn`s  metholdgy anything to go by ?

IMO, 'no'...But his gratuitous use of eye-catching fonts, I find to be more than a little suggestive of misdirection... 

 

And, as for his accuracy? Well, very few or none of his 'successes' ever lie outside of climatology... 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Crewe cold, where art thou?

Is the cold still coming?

[March Blizzard]

Perhaps March is more "synoptic" winter than "thermal" winter - the Atlantic is traditionally quieter and winds are more likely to come from the north/east than in December.

However, the fact remains that December, on average, is a tad colder. Poor olde March has too much daylight for its natural wintryness to claw back the temperature deficit on December, most of the time.

It probably is true that Feb and March typically give us our best winter patterns, though. I, for one, love cold in Feb and March. The longer daylight gives you a chance to enjoy it more.

There's not much better than it being mild enough to wash your car in late afternoon in March, only to watch the water on the driveway freeze not long after sunset. March diurnal ranges can be beautiful.

[UV-RAY]

Hi Bryan.I personally think he is the best forecaster I have encountered. People are too quick to dismiss him, often because they have just believed what others have said without looking for themselves, because people get into clicks and dislike anyone outside of their little cozy groups, because people dislike any competition despite credibility etc.For example, someone here answered you with a NO, he is not credible, despite admitting not even following his work, or most likely not ever having purchased his forecast and not honestly knowing what Piers has forecast, which is very common, people believe what they hear, don't bother seeing his forecasts especially as they have to be bought and just speculate... which is very very unscientific. How can you say he is bad or got things wrong if you never bought his forecast to start with. Thats just you lying.Piers is well qualified for a start, unlike many on weather forums who do love to speculate and assume, while Piers follows strict scientific methodology, which unless coming from a science background, you often wont understand what these strict processes are and why they are important. Piers is gaining some serious reputation around the world, he is getting recognised by large organisations, governments, and political figures. He is probably the most recognised weather forecaster outside of organisations like the MO at the moment, that you will come across. How many guys here have been invited to parliament to discuss weather with government? How many here has been invited to other countries to talk weather with their governments?If you guys want any credibility in this field of science that you are discussing, then don't ignorantly ridicule another scientist before learning his methods and, actually seeing his forecasts, while giving him a sensible enough amount of time to see if there is any reasonable success.Here is a few examples of my experience with Piers. 4 weeks ahead he forecast a red warning for snow in my town. Met office picked it up 5 days ahead, but they chopped and changed wildly in their predictions, going from a yellow warning to amber and finally a red warning the evening before the supposed snow event. Piers doesn't only make a 4 week ahead prediction but he doesn't chop and change (which isn't really a prediction if you chop and change as you would be making a new prediction each time). Despite him predicting it 4 weeks ahead without change or update, he was impressively... correct! This pattern has been the case over the last 2 years that I have followed him. He does make mistakes but they are blown out of proportion by the ignorant, because every forecaster gets it wrong, but I think people are jealous of Piers amazing success and make a larger deal than they ought to. He forecasted a storm this year with damaging winds, low pressure system, sweeping across parts of the UK, 4 weeks before, while the Met O had not a single signal of such event a week before, so accurate he was that his followers called it Piers Corbyn storm in credit to his success.One such example you could use to check out his ability is the storm that he has forecast for new year which had not been recognised by the Met O and many others over the previous 4 weeks. Piers does give a 2 day variability on his forecasts, 2 days before or after the said dates but that is entirely understandable considering Piers is forecasting a lot of highly variable bits of data over an incredibly long period of time. So Piers has another bad storm with 90+ mph winds hitting parts of the UK between tommorrow and the 2nd of January. If he gets it right again, another significant event to add to the list that he forecast weeks ahead while many model watchers were still guessing at what's the weather going to be next week, because that' about as far ahead you can get any reliability from these models. Even then they are wrong far to frequently.

Excellent post and one which highlights people's ignorance when they slate him, most of these haters come from the global warming movement who despise. Piers because of his vocal and indeed correct rants aimed at the gravy train dressed up as science.

[hillbilly]

There seem to be a few people on here saying that they can give forcasts and sometimes they are right but it does not mean a jot if they are completely wrong even some of the time,even the great met office can still get it completely wrong from one day to the next let alone weeks ahead...those predictions are just for fools.

Just to be brave I am going to stick my neck out and say we are going to get snow before January 20th,maybe not significant disruption and probably no serious easterly blocking....or maybe it will......and I base this on one thing alone because it has never failed to get to my birthday and not snowed in my lifetime [am 45 by the way] in fact it has only once ,or maybe twice got to xmas without snow,three times this December.Then again in this period of extremes we may witness the first snow free winter!!!!!

[Great Plum]

Excellent post and one which highlights people's ignorance when they slate him, most of these haters come from the global warming movement who despise. Piers because of his vocal and indeed correct rants aimed at the gravy train dressed up as science.

Without derailing this thread for it to become PC thread, I think much of people's scepticism stems from his refusal to divulge his methods - I certainly do not think they have been peer reviewed...

[UV-RAY]

Without derailing this thread for it to become PC thread, I think much of people's scepticism stems from his refusal to divulge his methods - I certainly do not think they have been peer reviewed...

Now that is a good point and one I would agree with GP, but not all peer reviewed science can be relied upon, more so in the world of closed shop science which appears rife within climates science. I think we best move on from here as we are way off the topical discussion for this thread.

[bryan629]

Hi Bryan.I personally think he is the best forecaster I have encountered. People are too quick to dismiss him, often because they have just believed what others have said without looking for themselves, because people get into clicks and dislike anyone outside of their little cozy groups, because people dislike any competition despite credibility etc.For example, someone here answered you with a NO, he is not credible, despite admitting not even following his work, or most likely not ever having purchased his forecast and not honestly knowing what Piers has forecast, which is very common, people believe what they hear, don't bother seeing his forecasts especially as they have to be bought and just speculate... which is very very unscientific. How can you say he is bad or got things wrong if you never bought his forecast to start with. Thats just you lying.Piers is well qualified for a start, unlike many on weather forums who do love to speculate and assume, while Piers follows strict scientific methodology, which unless coming from a science background, you often wont understand what these strict processes are and why they are important. Piers is gaining some serious reputation around the world, he is getting recognised by large organisations, governments, and political figures. He is probably the most recognised weather forecaster outside of organisations like the MO at the moment, that you will come across. How many guys here have been invited to parliament to discuss weather with government? How many here has been invited to other countries to talk weather with their governments?If you guys want any credibility in this field of science that you are discussing, then don't ignorantly ridicule another scientist before learning his methods and, actually seeing his forecasts, while giving him a sensible enough amount of time to see if there is any reasonable success.Here is a few examples of my experience with Piers. 4 weeks ahead he forecast a red warning for snow in my town. Met office picked it up 5 days ahead, but they chopped and changed wildly in their predictions, going from a yellow warning to amber and finally a red warning the evening before the supposed snow event. Piers doesn't only make a 4 week ahead prediction but he doesn't chop and change (which isn't really a prediction if you chop and change as you would be making a new prediction each time). Despite him predicting it 4 weeks ahead without change or update, he was impressively... correct! This pattern has been the case over the last 2 years that I have followed him. He does make mistakes but they are blown out of proportion by the ignorant, because every forecaster gets it wrong, but I think people are jealous of Piers amazing success and make a larger deal than they ought to. He forecasted a storm this year with damaging winds, low pressure system, sweeping across parts of the UK, 4 weeks before, while the Met O had not a single signal of such event a week before, so accurate he was that his followers called it Piers Corbyn storm in credit to his success.One such example you could use to check out his ability is the storm that he has forecast for new year which had not been recognised by the Met O and many others over the previous 4 weeks. Piers does give a 2 day variability on his forecasts, 2 days before or after the said dates but that is entirely understandable considering Piers is forecasting a lot of highly variable bits of data over an incredibly long period of time. So Piers has another bad storm with 90+ mph winds hitting parts of the UK between tommorrow and the 2nd of January. If he gets it right again, another significant event to add to the list that he forecast weeks ahead while many model watchers were still guessing at what's the weather going to be next week, because that' about as far ahead you can get any reliability from these models. Even then they are wrong far to frequently.

HI Maw,Thanks for the great post, clearly a lot of time and effort put into it..I completely agree with you not to judge a book by its cover, except if we were talking about `he whom shall not be named`i did wonder about piers methology though as you say , he is touting a big storm for the BI come new years day, give or take a couple of days either side.Piers Corbynâ€@Piers_Corbyn1hRtRt! BEWARE MAJOR NEW YEARS DAY STORMS B+I+Eu, USA; as SOLAR ACTION UPS http://bit.ly/1eeJIsw <=WHY THE STORMS? http://twitpic.com/dqdjlr Ty so looking at the models for new years day shows a shallow trough approaching from the west, which at best/or worst depending on your POV will give a wet day and a bit of a breeze for the south east...thats from the gfs 06z , maybe it wont be there on the 12z or it gets a bit of an upgrade..then theres a big storm over usa to yet develop and clash with some very cold air being ejected into the atlantic.. as Noaa have used a new word apparently to describe it `bombogenesis` . so real potential for a big storm to brew and head our way, maybe by the 6th according to gfs...whereas ecm not as progressive.so thats 4 days out of his window of time...albeit there is a lot of solar activity at the moment (cme`s i think) is this something he predicted/forecast 4 weeks ago.

[Summer Sun]

HI Maw,

Thanks for the great post, clearly a lot of time and effort put into it..

I completely agree with you not to judge a book by its cover, except if we were talking about `he whom shall not be named`

i did wonder about piers methology though as you say , he is touting a big storm for the BI come new years day, give or take a couple of days either side.

Piers Corbynâ€@Piers_Corbyn1h

RtRt! BEWARE MAJOR NEW YEARS DAY STORMS B+I+Eu, USA; as SOLAR ACTION UPS http://bit.ly/1eeJIsw <=WHY THE STORMS? http://twitpic.com/dqdjlr Ty

so looking at the models for new years day shows a shallow trough approaching from the west, which at best/or worst depending on your POV will give a wet day and a bit of a breeze for the south east...thats from the gfs 06z , maybe it wont be there on the 12z or it gets a bit of an upgrade..

then theres a big storm over usa to yet develop and clash with some very cold air being ejected into the atlantic.. as Noaa have used a new word apparently to describe it `bombogenesis` . so real potential for a big storm to brew and head our way, maybe by the 6th according to gfs...whereas ecm not as progressive.

so thats 4 days out of his window of time...albeit there is a lot of solar activity at the moment (cme`s i think) is this something he predicted/forecast 4 weeks ago.

 

Like you say not sure where the major storm is for New years day

 

UKMO's take on it

 

 

Compared to our previous storms that's nothing the only potential problems could be some temporary surface flooding given the saturated ground

[bryan629]

Like you say not sure where the major storm is for New years day

 

UKMO's take on it

 

 

Compared to our previous storms that's nothing the only potential problems could be some temporary surface flooding given the saturated ground

Very true ss...looks like a bog standard low..its the kinks in the isobars to the south to keep an eye on..maybe something maybe nothing..with the jet directly above that disturbance could brew another st judes . fingers crossed im totally wide of the mark.

[MP-R]

march is colder than December......1947...2013??

 

Nope... and I did say 'bar the odd one or two' as you've pointed out.

[Summer Sun]

Liam Dutton has updated his blog, remaining unsettled for now but signs of it possibly becoming more settled by mid month

 

How long will this storm spell continue?

 

Unfortunately, the jet stream is set to remain pretty active for at least the next 7-10 days, which means that further areas of low pressure will be thrown at us.As a result, the risk of flooding and disruption will remain a possibility, as strong winds and heavy rain continue to arrive.However, there are some signs that the jet stream may start to weaken and buckle towards the middle of January. This would lead to fewer and weaker areas of low pressure, with a greater chance of high pressure developing – settling the weather down. 

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/heavy-rain-gales-flood-risk-continue-year/5555

Edited December 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

I really wouldn't be bothering with H500 operational output from a cold perspective wrt deep sustained cold in the timeframes of the runs (PM incursions / Brief topplers are always possible and better than nothing), there is zero chance of a potent Easterly setting up before mid Jan in my opinion, of course positioning of ridges that may help trigger a stratospheric response are important going forward , its all about what is going on between 1hpa and 30hpa that's really important now.

[RRW14]

Excellent post and one which highlights people's ignorance when they slate him, most of these haters come from the global warming movement who despise. Piers because of his vocal and indeed correct rants aimed at the gravy train dressed up as science.

I'm so glad there are people on this forum to hold forth and tell the world what is and isn't science.

 

Hubris.

[UV-RAY]

I'm so glad there are people on this forum to hold forth and tell the world what is and isn't science.

 

Hubris.

I'm so glad there are people in this world who like to digest all the facts for themselves without the need to be spoon fed them.

[summer blizzard]

I'm sure we can maybe squeeze cool air out of the pattern like November but there's no chance of proper high lattitude blocking before the final third I think.

Though actually I expect the pattern to revert, the vortex is simply too strong.

[Snowynorth]

 

Some very interesting times ahead as far as cold lovers are concerned, a negative outlook on the AO coupled with a warming event that may split the vortex on the cards. Also it looks like a tri-pole set up developing in the north Atlantic. All good pointers towards a cold spell. I will say however that it maybe end of Jan into feb before we see any deep cold digging in!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

People expecting to see GFS FI output showing an Easterly getting stressed, don't panic, even if the GFS 384 10mb chart verified, it may still be a while after that before a complete reversal of zonal winds (SSW) (IF at all), and this can take up to 15 days after then before a tropospheric vortex split and subsequent continental feed, my moneys still on late Jan and possibly Feb.

Edited December 30, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Bristawl Si]

Yes, seems the most likely.

I've been following the Strat thread lately and although i cant say i understand much of it i'm getting a damned good idea about the influence of strat warming to disrupt the polar vortex, which in turn MAY influence our weather to turn somewhat colder and maybe snowier down the line.

Even down here, in these milder parts of the UK, end Jan/early Feb can deliver a colder, snowier spell, even during a generally milder winter.

Maybe only for a week or so but generally that period of the winter 'delivers'.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, seems the most likely.I've been following the Strat thread lately and although i cant say i understand much of it i'm getting a damned good idea about the influence of strat warming to disrupt the polar vortex, which in turn MAY influence our weather to turn somewhat colder and maybe snowier down the line.Even down here, in these milder parts of the UK, end Jan/early Feb can deliver a colder, snowier spell, even during a generally milder winter.Maybe only for a week or so but generally that period of the winter 'delivers'.

 

 

Yes there are caveats involved, like a west based pattern setting up as opposed to the one we crave - one slap down our spine with a lovely trough to our south and great big long high to our north.

[feb1991blizzard]

A decent clustering on the ens.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=229.44000244140625&y=41.849998474121094

[SnowObsessor90]

It's there's a silver lining at all from this winter so far it's the fact that I've actually managed something in the way of sunshine a, at least it hasn't been just endless south westerly muck which could have quite easily have been the case in this sort of setup.

Edited January 1, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[picog]

Crewe Cold, any update on your thoughts for the cold in January?