Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[asmith07]

I agree, 2nd week of January looks quite interesting at the moment. GFS has been showing a shot of cold in the second week of Jan on a few runs recently and this evening it's showing some sustained cooler weather. 

Like this run from the Gfs.

 

[summer blizzard]

I think that there's always the chance we can squeeze out some cool weather like November but in terms of sustained proper high latitude blocking i don't think there's any chance before the second half of January and there's still no guarantee.

[summer blizzard]

For those who may have missed the update over Christmas the met office's contingency planners forecast has updated for January to March

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2875179

 

Interesting. 

 

A mild and wet January followed by a near average but dry January and February?

[Fat Bloke]

cold spring anyone?

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's January forecast

 

Valid from 27/12 to 26/01 2014

Colder January

Issued: Friday 27th December 2013
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

A taste of winter mid month

A downward trend in temperature looks set to take place through the early part of January. Despite the storm, unsettled start, January is probably going to become cold. There is the possibility of a taste of winter mid month with many places seeing some snow. Confidence is considered moderate at this time.

*......4/1/14*

 

Staying unsettled and windy through the week. The winds will be to severe gale force at times and the rain may be heavy enough to cause localised flooding. Despite being relatively mild at first, temperatures will likely turn cooler during the second half of the week.

*5/1/14 to 11/1/14*

 

The flow is expected to be turning more northwesterly through this week. Temperatures will be falling slowly, but steadily, with all places feeling colder. There will be rain or showers, this turning increasingly to snow over high ground, especially in Scotland, northern England and Wales. Towards the end of the week pressure builds west of the country with drier weather moving in here, whilst the east continues to see showers.

*12/1/14......18/1/14*

 

Temperatures continue to fall through this week. The winds turning more north to north-easterly. There is an increasing risk of sleet and snow across eastern and southern parts of the country. Scotland, Ireland and most of Wales and northwest England may stay cold but dry with some sunny spells. Wintry conditions could persist in the south and east for a time. Daytime temperatures around 2 or 3C in southern England, 1 or 2C in Scotland with some very sharp overnight frosts.

*19/1/14......25/1/14*

 

A cold and wintry start to the week with more sleet and snow, again most to the south and east, if it occurs. Severe frosts to the north and west, with these tending to become more widespread across all areas as the week progresses.

*26/1/14......1/2/14*

 

Hints of a battle developing through this week. Milder, Atlantic air will be moving against the colder air through the UK and Ireland. Where these two features meet, probably through Ireland, Wales and southern England, there is the threat of some wintry weather. Milder weather should eventually arrive in the south and west later in the week, but it is likely to be remaining cold in the north and east with more wintry weather to the north.

Simon & Capn Bob

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20131227

[Richard2901]

Today marks exactly 3 weeks since the last frost occurred here with yet another very windy, very mild night (min 5.2C)

 

There have been only four other frost-free periods this long in winter since 1988/89: 1 in Feb 1993, 2 in 1997/98 and 1 in 2011/12. Another 4 frost-free nights would surpass all of them to give the longest spell since 1988/89 when there were 37 days in a row without air frost

 

This awful month will have the highest mean min since December 1934. It has been dreadful. Even the very worst months like December 2002 had a 3-day frosty spell but there has been nothing seasonable at all this month. Can't ever recall such a prolonged windy spell as the past fortnight. There has barely been an occasion when the wind has even dropped to moderate.

 

It seems like December 2010 was the winter equivalent of July 2006, which I hoped would see the start of a run of better summers after a poor run from 1998 but was a false dawn as it only led to the worst run of summers on record. This last 3 years for winter weather has just been a return to the bad old days of the 1990s 

 

 

[reef]

Today marks exactly 3 weeks since the last frost occurred here with yet another very windy, very mild night (min 5.2C)

 

There have been only four other frost-free periods this long in winter since 1988/89: 1 in Feb 1993, 2 in 1997/98 and 1 in 2011/12. Another 4 frost-free nights would surpass all of them to give the longest spell since 1988/89 when there were 37 days in a row without air frost

 

This awful month will have the highest mean min since December 1934. It has been dreadful. Even the very worst months like December 2002 had a 3-day frosty spell but there has been nothing seasonable at all this month. Can't ever recall such a prolonged windy spell as the past fortnight. There has barely been an occasion when the wind has even dropped to moderate.

 

It seems like December 2010 was the winter equivalent of July 2006, which I hoped would see the start of a run of better summers after a poor run from 1998 but was a false dawn as it only led to the worst run of summers on record. This last 3 years for winter weather has just been a return to the bad old days of the 1990s 

 

Its been over a month now since we had an air frost here. The last was -1.1C on the 26th November, with the lowest minimum being 0.2C this month as it stands. No snow falling or lying yet either.

 

The stats for the month here are typical for an extreme zonal month, much the same as December 2011 and January 2012. It has been very mild, very sunny and rather dry.

 

In 34 years of records only three Decembers have had no air frosts here: 1986, 1988 and 1990. Out of those three only 1988 was snowless, so as mentioned in the other thread started by Pit, its likely to be the second worst December for wintry weather since at least 1980.

Edited December 28, 2013 by reef

[Don]

Weather Online's January forecast

 

Valid from 27/12 to 26/01 2014

Colder January

Issued: Friday 27th December 2013

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

A taste of winter mid month

A downward trend in temperature looks set to take place through the early part of January. Despite the storm, unsettled start, January is probably going to become cold. There is the possibility of a taste of winter mid month with many places seeing some snow. Confidence is considered moderate at this time.

*......4/1/14*

 

Staying unsettled and windy through the week. The winds will be to severe gale force at times and the rain may be heavy enough to cause localised flooding. Despite being relatively mild at first, temperatures will likely turn cooler during the second half of the week.

*5/1/14 to 11/1/14*

 

The flow is expected to be turning more northwesterly through this week. Temperatures will be falling slowly, but steadily, with all places feeling colder. There will be rain or showers, this turning increasingly to snow over high ground, especially in Scotland, northern England and Wales. Towards the end of the week pressure builds west of the country with drier weather moving in here, whilst the east continues to see showers.

*12/1/14......18/1/14*

 

Temperatures continue to fall through this week. The winds turning more north to north-easterly. There is an increasing risk of sleet and snow across eastern and southern parts of the country. Scotland, Ireland and most of Wales and northwest England may stay cold but dry with some sunny spells. Wintry conditions could persist in the south and east for a time. Daytime temperatures around 2 or 3C in southern England, 1 or 2C in Scotland with some very sharp overnight frosts.

*19/1/14......25/1/14*

 

A cold and wintry start to the week with more sleet and snow, again most to the south and east, if it occurs. Severe frosts to the north and west, with these tending to become more widespread across all areas as the week progresses.

*26/1/14......1/2/14*

 

Hints of a battle developing through this week. Milder, Atlantic air will be moving against the colder air through the UK and Ireland. Where these two features meet, probably through Ireland, Wales and southern England, there is the threat of some wintry weather. Milder weather should eventually arrive in the south and west later in the week, but it is likely to be remaining cold in the north and east with more wintry weather to the north.

Simon & Capn Bob

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20131227

 

I think many on here would take this forecast!

Edited December 28, 2013 by Don

[Summer Sun]

WSI's latest 3 month forecast

 

WSI: Above-Normal Temperatures to be the Rule Across Europe Remainder of Winter

 

Lack of Atlantic Blocking to Result in More Mild Westerly Flow

 

Andover, MA, 20 December 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Europe and western Russia for the January-March period, with slightly below-normal temperatures confined to parts of western Iberia and the UK.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “December has been characterized by very strong westerly flow across northern Europe, with high pressure and slightly below-normal temperatures confined to parts of France, Italy, and Iberia. The lack of very cold air so far this winter is due to a lack of North Atlantic blocking, and there is no indication in our dynamical and statistical models that the recent pattern will relent significantly for the remainder of the winter. The result will likely be widespread above-normal temperatures, especially across eastern Europe and western Russia, with near-normal temperatures and stormy conditions more common across western Europe.â€In January, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Near normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, especially eastern sectionsSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, especially eastern sectionsIn February, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normalSouthern Mainland – Colder than normal, except eastern sectionsIn March, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Colder than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except northern France and BeneluxSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normalhttp://www.wsi.com/3483b5d2-58f0-4779-8de8-3005df1009b2/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

WSI's latest 3 month forecast

 

WSI: Above-Normal Temperatures to be the Rule Across Europe Remainder of Winter

 

Lack of Atlantic Blocking to Result in More Mild Westerly Flow

 

Andover, MA, 20 December 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread above-normal temperatures across Europe and western Russia for the January-March period, with slightly below-normal temperatures confined to parts of western Iberia and the UK.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “December has been characterized by very strong westerly flow across northern Europe, with high pressure and slightly below-normal temperatures confined to parts of France, Italy, and Iberia. The lack of very cold air so far this winter is due to a lack of North Atlantic blocking, and there is no indication in our dynamical and statistical models that the recent pattern will relent significantly for the remainder of the winter. The result will likely be widespread above-normal temperatures, especially across eastern Europe and western Russia, with near-normal temperatures and stormy conditions more common across western Europe.â€In January, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Near normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, especially eastern sectionsSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, especially eastern sectionsIn February, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Warmer than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normalSouthern Mainland – Colder than normal, except eastern sectionsIn March, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Warmer than normalUK – Colder than normalNorthern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except northern France and BeneluxSouthern Mainland – Warmer than normalhttp://www.wsi.com/3483b5d2-58f0-4779-8de8-3005df1009b2/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

Oh no not another cold march,i HATE cold marches.

[Don]

Oh no not another cold march,i HATE cold marches.

 

No disrespect but I believe those WSI forecasts have flipped flopped about somewhat during the last few months?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

No disrespect but I believe those WSI forecasts have flipped flopped about somewhat during the last few months?

Probably,i hope so a mild winter followed by a cold march is a pet hate of mine/

[feb1991blizzard]

Best advice I could give now is read the post by  chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread and wait and be patient, It will get better past mid jan but the real interest is for feb.

[Don]

Probably,i hope so a mild winter followed by a cold march is a pet hate of mine/

 

I agree that normally a cold March following a mild Winter is too little too late (March 2013 excepted).  However, I would still rather have a cold March than a mild one.

Edited December 28, 2013 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

And the post by Tamara Road in the model thread.

[bryan629]

is piers corbyn`s  metholdgy anything to go by ?

[feb1991blizzard]

is piers corbyn`s  metholdgy anything to go by ?

 

No.

 

EDIT : I haven't read anything of his lately but to me he seems one of these conspiracy theorist types but more importantly, his forecasts haven't been great over a period of time, maybe only slightly better than James Madden's, I don't know what his methodology is though to be fair.

Edited December 28, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[bryan629]

No.

 

EDIT : I haven't read anything of his lately but to me he seems one of these conspiracy theorist types but more importantly, his forecasts haven't been great over a period of time, maybe only slightly better than James Madden's, I don't know what his methodology is though to be fair.

I did wonder Feb.... because paul Hudson and jo b seem to be followers on twitter as I discovered this afternoon.... so having a quick glance at his website and chat on twitter he seems to have some methology in his madness.... going to follow him for next few weeks to see how things pan out .....heres an extract from his site ...

 

Special Extra item from Piers Corbyn added 28th 00z GMT at front end of this Storm blogPost

 

WHY ARE WE GETTING ALL THESE STORMS?

Prepare for even more dangerous storm events including 'smowmageddon conditions' in parts of Britain / Ireland and Europe!

"December has been unusually stormy, as predicted in our WeatherAction forecast, in Britain+Ireland, parts of Europe and USA (also as we predicted) and around the world. 

The reason is certain persistent solar influences and their lunar modulation - specifically a swarm of Top Red, R4 and R5, weather action periods which have covered a much higher propertion of the month (~2/3) than normal and the very active and wild Jet stream which is also related to the greater incidence of R4s and R5s and the Mini Ice Age circulation patterns now dominating the world.  

The R periods and wild behavior of the Jet Stream are driven from above and are associated with extra and extreme changes in electrical and magnetic activity above the stratosphere and in the ionosphere and the solar wind of charged particles coming from the sun and events on the sun itself**

[**Note Ideas such as 'temperature contrasts drive the Jet Stream' are totally inadequate to explain or predict events. Such a picture cannot explain the relationship between Earth weather and events in the ionosphere, magnetosphere, the solar wind and on the sun. Indeed such a view, notwithstanding certain feedbacks, is akin to suggesting the movement of tree braches causes winds.]

 

This extreme agitation of the atmosphere and increasing storminess is NOT going to go away but will increase again along with extra solar activity, and auroral displays particularly around the turn of the month and again in January.

Extreme and dangerous weather is predicted by WeatherAction's Solar Lunar equations particularly from around Dec 31st to Jan 2nd (an R5+ period) {as WeatherAction forecast 6 weeks ahead and is in 30/45d forecasts}.

This will include severe storm force damaging winds (Force 11) in Northern and Western parts - gusts of 90-100mph and more - with blizzard or 'snowmageddon conditions' in Scotland and North parts of England, Wales and Ireland likely, more flooding, and wind driven North Sea storm surge threats to English and Dutch North Sea coasts in the wake of the storm (enhanced by New moon 1st Jan).

Further information about January is in the 45d forecast.

Thank You"

 

 

heres what I found on twitter

 

 

Paul Hudson â€@Hudsonweather 9h

Scenario highlighted by @Piers_Corbyn (wx show 12th Dec) @ClimateRealists so far no hint from models. Interesting to see what materialises.

 

View conversation Hide conversation

[feb1991blizzard]

 

I did wonder Feb.... because paul Hudson and jo b seem to be followers on twitter as I discovered this afternoon.... so having a quick glance at his website and chat on twitter he seems to have some methology in his madness.... going to follow him for next few weeks to see how things pan out .....heres an extract from his site ...

 

Special Extra item from Piers Corbyn added 28th 00z GMT at front end of this Storm blogPost

 

WHY ARE WE GETTING ALL THESE STORMS?

Prepare for even more dangerous storm events including 'smowmageddon conditions' in parts of Britain / Ireland and Europe!

"December has been unusually stormy, as predicted in our WeatherAction forecast, in Britain+Ireland, parts of Europe and USA (also as we predicted) and around the world. 

The reason is certain persistent solar influences and their lunar modulation - specifically a swarm of Top Red, R4 and R5, weather action periods which have covered a much higher propertion of the month (~2/3) than normal and the very active and wild Jet stream which is also related to the greater incidence of R4s and R5s and the Mini Ice Age circulation patterns now dominating the world.  

The R periods and wild behavior of the Jet Stream are driven from above and are associated with extra and extreme changes in electrical and magnetic activity above the stratosphere and in the ionosphere and the solar wind of charged particles coming from the sun and events on the sun itself**

[**Note Ideas such as 'temperature contrasts drive the Jet Stream' are totally inadequate to explain or predict events. Such a picture cannot explain the relationship between Earth weather and events in the ionosphere, magnetosphere, the solar wind and on the sun. Indeed such a view, notwithstanding certain feedbacks, is akin to suggesting the movement of tree braches causes winds.]

 

This extreme agitation of the atmosphere and increasing storminess is NOT going to go away but will increase again along with extra solar activity, and auroral displays particularly around the turn of the month and again in January.

Extreme and dangerous weather is predicted by WeatherAction's Solar Lunar equations particularly from around Dec 31st to Jan 2nd (an R5+ period) {as WeatherAction forecast 6 weeks ahead and is in 30/45d forecasts}.

This will include severe storm force damaging winds (Force 11) in Northern and Western parts - gusts of 90-100mph and more - with blizzard or 'snowmageddon conditions' in Scotland and North parts of England, Wales and Ireland likely, more flooding, and wind driven North Sea storm surge threats to English and Dutch North Sea coasts in the wake of the storm (enhanced by New moon 1st Jan).

Further information about January is in the 45d forecast.

Thank You"

 

 

heres what I found on twitter

 

 

Paul Hudson â€@Hudsonweather 9h

Scenario highlighted by @Piers_Corbyn (wx show 12th Dec) @ClimateRealists so far no hint from models. Interesting to see what materialises.

 

View conversation Hide conversation

 

 

 

I seem to remember him very certain of at least a continuation, if not a worsening after xmas 2010, he had an interview on talksport with George Galloway, and seem to think it would be a 63 or 47 scenario when the Met Office, GP, and the models never bought into it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Oh no not another cold march,i HATE cold marches.

 

Oh no not another cold march,i HATE cold marches.

 

I don't, cold march's are great, remember March is more wintry than December, less wet, less windy, we have winter still to come in the south hopefully

[bryan629]

last march was brilliant for cold weather and snow...ill not forget the 23rd for a long time especially... deep drifting snow from a stalled pivoting front.... was hard to measure how much fell out of the sky it blew around that much, im hoping to see the same again next year...fingers crossed

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feb and march will be our winter and hopefully April, January is a write off for low levels in the south, looking snowy from 4th mind you for high levels midlands north 300m+

[Gaz1985]

Urrggh last Winter/Spring went on and on - was freezing until May lol

[MP-R]

January and February are the best months to receive winter weather, or even better would be mid-December to mid-February. Cold spells (bar the odd one or two) are pretty useless after that and a lot less popular as the vast majority look for spring in spring.

Edited December 28, 2013 by MP-R

[I remember Atlantic 252]

January is mostly zonal though, dominated by mild westerlies, Feb and march is the best chance, surely we are due a snowy Feb, didnt get much snow in Feb '13