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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: lowestoft
  • Location: lowestoft

    Why all the negativity??

    Everyone seems so hooked on the ec32 dayer, 

    If you look at things from another angle, the gfs has p2 showing an easterly and very cold uppers, and also the CFS is showing Easterlys and cold uppers!!!

    Both of these are being shown arround the same time frame, arround the first week of Jan..

    These situations can pot up from no where, lets all chill out and see what happens,    

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Well as much as i'd like the cold winter touted by the CFS i think 05 is a good match with a poor December and a worse January followed by a potentially cooler Feb and March, although it should be noted that a minority of indicators pointed to a 6C+ February. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest CFS update, chart explanation can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211

     

    Below is the January chart, with daily values in blue, 10 day mean in red and trend in black.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The last 7 days averaged 0.4 (neutral SLP or weak blocking), with 3 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 -ve and 2 neutral. The previous 7 days averaged 1.3, with 4 +ve, 2 -ve and 1 neutral.

    The forecasts over the last while have been very mixed, some with strong blocking, some with very zonal patterns and everything in between. Uncertainty seems to be the forecast for January at this stage.

     

    Below is the latest February chart.

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    The last 7 days have averaged 0.3 (neutral), with 2 +ve runs, 3 -ve and 2 neutral. The previous 7 days averaged -0.3, with 3 +ve, 4 -ve and 0 neutral.

    There has been more CFS runs showing -ve SLP anomalies to our north than +ve over the last 2 weeks, a big change compared to the previous 8 weeks which very much suggested more blocking.

     

    Chart Highlights

     

    The Best

    Posted Image

     

    The worst

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Latest CFS update, chart explanation can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211

     

    Below is the January chart, with daily values in blue, 10 day mean in red and trend in black.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The last 7 days averaged 0.4 (neutral SLP or weak blocking), with 3 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 -ve and 2 neutral. The previous 7 days averaged 1.3, with 4 +ve, 2 -ve and 1 neutral.

    The forecasts over the last while have been very mixed, some with strong blocking, some with very zonal patterns and everything in between. Uncertainty seems to be the forecast for January at this stage.

     

    Below is the latest February chart.

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    The last 7 days have averaged 0.3 (neutral), with 2 +ve runs, 3 -ve and 2 neutral. The previous 7 days averaged -0.3, with 3 +ve, 4 -ve and 0 neutral.

    There has been more CFS runs showing -ve SLP anomalies to our north than +ve over the last 2 weeks, a big change compared to the previous 8 weeks which very much suggested more blocking.

     

    Chart Highlights

     

    The Best

    Posted Image

     

    The worst

    Posted Image

    Much appreciated BFTV the time and effort you take to keep us all updated on these.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

     

    We need the High anoms over Scandi to be a bit further North but are interesting but I am not sure why he is championing the high heights to the South West of us, they need to be either ridging into Greenland and joining with scandi heights.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Regarding the negativity, I am being realistic but I am actually confident of potent cold, I just think it will be a while longer than other people think, until we smash the stratospheric vortex then we are reliant on brief PM incursions, ie - a slush or rainfest, better than 30c but in terms of a thrill it doesn't really float my boat, Easterlies the only thing for me. I may not be able to see my family over xmas (lack of funds) so may be stuck in front of a computer, If I am, I will be having a real good look at the possibilities for Feb, the years I am thinking about are 09 but mainly 90-91, I wonder if anyone knows the exact date of the SSW in 91, I know it was Feb and so could not have had any impact on the brutal Easterly because the initial undercut happened late Jan, that year a good fit though, some peoples analogues of 09 have come up and Summer Blizzard mentions 05, not looked to deeply at the teleconnections of these years but these are the sort of scenarios I see panning out, 05 was actually quite unlucky really and the synoptics  were not bad actually.

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     If I am, I will be having a real good look at the possibilities for Feb, the years I am thinking about are 09 but mainly 90-91, I wonder if anyone knows the exact date of the SSW in 91, I know it was Feb and so could not have had any impact on the brutal Easterly because the initial undercut happened late Jan,

     

    There was no SSW in 1991, though the vortex was weak generally and there was a minimum stratospheric NAM of -2.23 on 28/01 http://p-martineau.com/ssw-animations/

    Edited by Interitus
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    There was no SSW in 1991, though the vortex was weak generally and there was a minimum stratospheric NAM of -2.23 on 28/01 http://p-martineau.com/ssw-animations/

    Interestingly, it was another of those events when a large warming occurred but these did not meet the WMO SSW definition. I know that there has been some discussion regarding significant strat warmings that do not reverse the mean zonal winds at 60ºN and 10hPa, but yet can have a considerable tropospheric response.

     

    It appears that this is on the agenda at SPARC's (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) meeting next month, so that this ambiguity may be addressed. Here is an excerpt from the latest general email :

     

     

     

    Dear colleagues:

     

    At the recent SPARC DynVar meeting in April 2013, there was much discussion

    about how we, as a community,  define sudden stratospheric warmings, and in

    particular if the standard SSW definition (i.e, the WMO definition) are

    adequate for current needs.  The main reasons for doing so are:

     

     

    1.

     

    The definition was developed in the 1960-70s, based largely on the

    observation system at the time (radiosondes/rocketsondes).  It therefore

    does not take full advantage the more comprehensive observations available

    now.

    2.

     

    Our theoretical understanding of SSWs has also matured considerably in

    recent decades.  The definition could be improved to include, for example,

    differences between split and displacement type events, or guidance on how

    to determine independent events.  It could also include an element related

    to stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

    3.

     

    A number of new diagnostics have been proposed in the last decade (in

    addition to different interpretations of the current WMO definition),

    leading to inconsistencies in the classification of major SSWs depending on

    which diagnostic is chosen.

     

     

    While different diagnostics may be useful for different applications,

    having a standardized definition available is an important tool for the

    research and forecasting community.  A formal definition creates a

    standardized method for forecasting SSWs; allows for a standard set of

    major SSW events in research; and gives a consistent way to evaluate

    simulated stratospheric variability in both historical and future climate

    scenarios.

     

    We are organizing efforts to update the original WMO definition for SSWs,

    based on present-day observations, more complete understanding of the

    phenomenon, and the changing needs of the community.  We would like your

    input about what the community wants from a definition and how it will be

    used. For example, is it important to classify SSW onset in real time?

    Would it be more useful to focus on the stratosphere-troposphere coupling

    of an event? Is it important to keep the definition simple to calculate

    and based on fewer variables?

     

    The first opportunity to meet will be the *SPARC General Assembly* in

    January 2014 in Queenstown. Amy Butler will be presenting on this topic on

    Tuesday afternoon, and we thought it would be useful to get input after

    that regarding our proposed method and timeline for updating the definition

    and engaging the scientific community.  *We will be meeting during the

    lunch period on Thursday January 16th (12:15-2pm, *in the Millennium

    Hotel). 

     

    Hopefully we will see some clarification and further definition on the subject.

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    No CC,unfortunately it doesn't work like that. It could very well go like a zonal train right out to mid Feb by which time it will be too late for those wanting winter wonderland scenes in their back garden.

    Without wanting to sound humbug I watched this thread very closely through November and some of the comments about this year being the 'big one' were quite frankly a bit ridiculous and were absolutely hopecasting at its very worst.

     

    Quite a few members were very bullish about a neg NA0 through winter,i can tell you now this winter will not in a million years return a -NAO,i'll bet my garden shed on it.

    Indeed, the last cold rest of Winter that followed a mild Dec was way back in 85/86 according to @bablake 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    EC32 and winter 2011-12. Does anyone remember Matt Hugo kept referring to EC32 and signals of higher pressures towards the back end of that January in the Greenland region? Infact, there was no blocking at all there in the end.

    That's my beef with the ECM32, it flips far to often over short timescales but now it's showing a zonal outlook we're all suppose  to pay homage to it. I'll go with the 7-10 days timescale and look for trends in FI myself rather than rely on the unreliable.

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

    Aarghhh! This winter has been an unparalleled for super dupereness in modern times. Might as well right if off now. 8-10C until March and then rain. Looks like the mini ice-age predictions were wrong. Why can't winter just be winter. Is 10ft of snow on the 31st October lying until the 31st June too much to ask for. I'll slit my wrists if we don't get better weather soon I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad you baboons.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Aarghhh! This winter has been an unparalleled for onionseness in modern times. Might as well right if off now. 8-10C until March and then rain. Looks like the mini ice-age predictions were wrong. Why can't winter just be winter. Is 10ft of snow on the 31st October lying until the 31st June too much to ask for. I'll slit my wrists if we don't get better weather soon I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad you baboons.

     

    31st June???????????????

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Do you have a problem with my desire for long winters?

     

    not at all, I want very long winters! just 31st June does not exist

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Still enjoying you life you Lettuceing retard. You drove me off TSR you Tory prune. I see you resigned as leader, thank Lettuce for that. Enjoy sitting discussing weather with a bunch of 50 year old men do you? See the Tories nearly booted you out, yes moles inside informants keep me up to track. Have you ever wondered what it would be like to completely lose access to the model commons, Lettuceing thought not. Go shag your donkey Qwertish and toronto. Jarred looks like he's sick of keeping the place running over, bet your gonna try and jump in his shows moronic imbecile, you'll finish the place wagwamma.

    Your dosage needs increasing tenfold.
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Aarghhh! This winter has been an unparalleled for onionseness in modern times. Might as well right if off now. 8-10C until March and then rain. Looks like the mini ice-age predictions were wrong. Why can't winter just be winter. Is 10ft of snow on the 31st October lying until the 31st June too much to ask for. I'll slit my wrists if we don't get better weather soon I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad you baboons.

     

    You would never get snow lying that long in the UK its impossible

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    You would never get snow lying that long in the UK its impossible

    Not impossible, but we may need to wait another 10,000 years before it becomes possible.
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    You would never get snow lying that long in the UK its impossible

     

    0n mountains its likely I would have thought

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    Do you have a problem with my desire for long winters?

    You should concider moving to Alaska or northern Siberia.....there are only 30 days in june!

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    0n mountains its likely I would have thought

    only 150 years ago cross fell used to hold snow for 10 months of the year!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    0n mountains its likely I would have thought

     

    Yeah but Deep Snow please will be talking about low levels a number of factors make it impossible

     

    Strong sunshine

     

    Long days 14 hours plus from mid April

     

    Natural warming of the ground

     

    How long did snow last on the ground during the last Ice age?

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    Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

    Aarghhh! This winter has been an unparalleled for onionseness in modern times. Might as well right if off now. 8-10C until March and then rain. Looks like the mini ice-age predictions were wrong. Why can't winter just be winter. Is 10ft of snow on the 31st October lying until the 31st June too much to ask for. I'll slit my wrists if we don't get better weather soon I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad you baboons.

     

    Perhaps you need counselling if lack of snow makes you feel like that......... it's not the end of the world, there's more important things than snow, the weather will do what it wants.

    Edited by Gaz1985
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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    How long did snow last on the ground during the last Ice age?

     

    For much of the country all year, on top of a thick ice sheet: 

    http://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/geologyOfBritain/iceAge/images/Fig2_British_Isles_2.jpg (Last glacial maximum ice extent)

    Edited by Evening thunder
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