Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[feb1991blizzard]

scrap that. I was going to say that it was only faux cold but I was thinking of Dec 1991 although it does apply to 1992 Dec spell as well ironically!

Edited December 11, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[irishlad69]

Cant get my head round the fact that the cfs keeps trying to push a high pressure over Scandinavia. I know people say cfs is inconsistent blah blah  but it has regularly pointed to high around this region for x mas week. This model must have picked something up or else why would it show these runs!!!!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121006/run1m2/cfs-0-348.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121100/run1m/cfs-0-366.png?00

 

I agree with you there, and as far as I am concerned all the other charts change every day, so whats not to say the CFS chart is correct or not correct for that matter

Edited December 11, 2013 by irishlad69

[Conor Sherwin]

[Conor Sherwin]

'Winter 2013-2014 looking to feature a predominantly -AO and a fairly notable -NAO anomaly across winter as a whole. December looking to be the mildest of the three months with a mean temperature not deviating far from average. January and February to feature periods of severe cold which will likely see winter 2013-2014 significantly colder than average on balance'

 

That was from the 23rd November. December was always likely to be the mildest of the 3 months DJF if my forecast is anywhere near accurate. A fairly significant pattern change to see January much colder than average so therefore a pattern change around the New Year period would fit in well with this proposed shift in synoptics.

 

There's nothing to be specific over at present other than pressure should be higher than average to our N in general. I'm certainly not discounting a '78/'79 type of scenario at present. Given the extensive cold pooling which is locked to our N at the moment, any wedge of heights to our N could have potentially explosive results in terms of snowfall for the UK.

 

Here is an example of a fairly typical synoptic set up we'll see during January...(if all goes well)

 

cfs-0-1074.png

[Conor Sherwin]

nice east wind 

[Conor Sherwin]

nice east wind 

next few days 

[Weather-history]

nice east wind

And it's gone again.

Waste of time.

[snowtimenow]

Meto keep saying "feeling mild" but it certainly doesnt feel mild here tbh more like very chilly

[picog]

It's beginning to look like the first month of winter could be written off for coldies.

[cheese]

Meto keep saying "feeling mild" but it certainly doesnt feel mild here tbh more like very chilly

Yesterday was certainly chilly. Today feels pretty chilly too. Certainly doesn't feel mild.

[Skyraker]

I checked this out a week or two back as I saw a similar headline.

 

My conclusion there is none.

 

Here is the data I used. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season

 

 

Well it is now official it was the quietest hurricane season since 1982 , I have just checked the archive for the Winter 82/83 and what an awful Winter that was, started off in December where we are right now, then the Euro High built back in over and over and the P/V remained strong throughout , all I could find was 2 24hr topplers throughout the whole winter... Let's hope conditions over the other side of the Atlantic won't have quite such an effect this year... In that Winter Feb was the best month , but most of the month was close but no cigar... 

 

My question is is there any known link between really quiet hurricane seasons and the UK Winter. ? 

Edited December 12, 2013 by Skyraker

[Alexis]

Well it is now official it was the quietest hurricane season since 1982 , I have just checked the archive for the Winter 82/83 and what an awful Winter that was, started off in December where we are right now, then the Euro High built back in over and over and the P/V remained strong throughout , all I could find was 2 24hr topplers throughout the whole winter... Let's hope conditions over the other side of the Atlantic won't have quite such an effect this year... In that Winter Feb was the best month , but most of the month was close but no cigar... 

 

My question is is there any known link between really quiet hurricane seasons and the UK Winter. ?

 

You're just looking at one factor though - number of major hurricanes (0 in 2013). Yet there were 2 'ordinary' hurricanes formed and 13 tropical storms. 2009 had 3 hurricanes (2 major) and only 9 tropical storms. The 2 'major' hurricanes skew the figures - overall 2009 was actually quieter. And 1962 was quieter still with only 5 tropical storms and 3 hurricanes (1 major). And that was pretty cold in the UK!

 

2005 had the most storms, hurricanes and major storms!

 

No link IMO.

Edited December 12, 2013 by Alexis

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest CFS blocking update. The charts are explained here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211

 

Below is the latest January chart, with the daily values in blue, 10 day mean in red and trend in black

 

 

The last 7 days have averaged 1 (weak blocking), with 4 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 showing -ve and 1 neutral (previous week was 1.1, with 4 +ve, and 3 -ve).

The 10 day mean has taken a sharp downturn recently, hitting a low of 0.1 on the 5th. This has risen slightly with a few blocked runs in recent days, but the long term trend is very much negative.

 

Below is the latest February chart.

 

 

The last 7 days averaged -0.4 (neutral to weak low pressure anomalies) with 3 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north and 4 runs showing -ve anomalies (previous week was 1.7 with 6 +ve and 1 neutral). 

Like January, February has seen a strong downturn recently, with the 10 day mean reaching a low of 0.2 on the 10th, producing a strong downward trend in the long term.

 

 

Highlights from the last week

 

The Best Chart (best I've seen all year!)

 

The Worst

[Snowynorth]

Some interesting model runs today. All point towards a high pressure pushing into the north pole. One to keep an eye on with 4 models suggesting it

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest CFS blocking update. The charts are explained here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211

 

Below is the latest January chart, with the daily values in blue, 10 day mean in red and trend in black

 

 

The last 7 days have averaged 1 (weak blocking), with 4 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north, 2 showing -ve and 1 neutral (previous week was 1.1, with 4 +ve, and 3 -ve).

The 10 day mean has taken a sharp downturn recently, hitting a low of 0.1 on the 5th. This has risen slightly with a few blocked runs in recent days, but the long term trend is very much negative.

 

Below is the latest February chart.

 

 

The last 7 days averaged -0.4 (neutral to weak low pressure anomalies) with 3 runs showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north and 4 runs showing -ve anomalies (previous week was 1.7 with 6 +ve and 1 neutral). 

Like January, February has seen a strong downturn recently, with the 10 day mean reaching a low of 0.2 on the 10th, producing a strong downward trend in the long term.

 

 

 

 

 

How about this one from today's update. Follows my line of thinking very well

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

How about this one from today's update. Follows my line of thinking very well

 

cfsnh-4-1-2014.png

CFS is an absolute waste of time im afraid.

[Summer Sun]

CFS is an absolute waste of time im afraid.

 

Yep, If CFS was correct we'd be seeing lots of northern blocking now look at all the updates that showed this during Autumn and infact right up to the end on November but here we are in December and so far its failed to develop.

 

CFS is no better or worse than any other model

[BornFromTheVoid]

How about this one from today's update. Follows my line of thinking very well

 

cfsnh-4-1-2014.png

 

It's the same chart as my highlighted one CC! It's also the only winter month to score a 5 since the January anomaly from the November 13th run!

 

So far, I have to say that the CFS hasn't shown itself to be of much use, but there's plenty of time for that to change

[karyo]

It's beginning to look like the first month of winter could be written off for coldies.

 

Beginning to look? 

It was beginning to look like that last month. Now it's certainty!

 

Karyo

[Barry12]

Beginning to look? 

It was beginning to look like that last month. Now it's certainty!

 

Karyo

 

You should write long range forecasts!

[Snowynorth]

GFS last few runs have a high pressure forcing into the Arctic. We may see some cold weather Xmas week as we get more of a northerly pattern as the low pressure are forced south. One to watch closely.

[Conor Sherwin]

look at the wind

[feb1991blizzard]

It's beginning to look like the first month of winter could be written off for coldies.

 

 

I told people that on my signature on October 19th but they probably just thought I was another Ian Brown and scaremongering!!

[meathead]

I think the upcoming storms are going to break up the horribly mild pattern we are in right now. Can only be a good thing if you like cold. My gut feeling tells me it's going be turning colder from around the 23rd.

[irishlad69]

I think the upcoming storms are going to break up the horribly mild pattern we are in right now. Can only be a good thing if you like cold. My gut feeling tells me it's going be turning colder from around the 23rd.

 

I agree with you there but I believe it will be colder around the 20th/21st, that's just my personal view