Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[MR EXTREMES]

incredible that madden can even possible discount what is being shown across the board I hold no hope for this winter full stop although im guilty as the next of jumping onto the excitement of the models over the last month and half.

 

but my original winter ideas look likely to be closer I based most of my ideas on higher solar activity and its still moderate now I know a lot of you talk of lag time ect ect but over all since the high peak recently in the solar output there has been a sharp increase in not only the vortex strength also the jet profile and plenty of other teleconnections have flipped opposite to recent years even worse than recent years but you could the general trend was slowing going back to the late 90s early 2000s type of setup.

 

this don't mean we wont see cold snaps but most of the time the azore European set up is likely to dominate through out this winter its been a single through summer.

 

so heres hoping for a down tick in solar activity then perhaps a more favoured wintry out come could take place perhaps for next winter.

positive ao positive nao and west qbo most point towards unfavourable winter.

 

but cold snaps will always be possible as depressions pass through as is high pressure domination will bring frost fog problems but above average for the rest of December is most likely.

[Eugene]

The prospects for cold weather fans are even worse than for Man Utd fans, as emotional says i think we can safely write off this winter already apart from frost/fog and hope next winter plays ball.

 

The pattern we currently have is the worse, HP too far east to give us seasonal weather and the atlantic too far west to reset the pattern and at least give us some exciting weather even if mild, its all in a no mans land for the next few weeks and ECM 00Z really is a horror show even GFS runs are better.

[Gael_Force]

I just had a wee run through the sequence for December '78 to see what Canadian warming looked like on the Z500 charts. I don't know the dates but the pattern around the end of December looks very like the description in the definition posted before.

 

 

The pattern for the month is very different to what we have and are forecast to have - suppose it just reinforces the chaos and luck elements when trying to match drivers, indices etc.

 

Whole month run.   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=12&day=1&year=1978&map=4&hour=0

[Lake District Blizzard]

People writing off the whole winter already... How silly!

 

As pointed out this is winter 2013/14 and not a rerun of any winter in the past, and will do exactly what it wants when it wants. The general trend in peoples forecasts was for any blocking / colder weather to be around February time, which in forecasting and model terms is distant future. Patterns can suddenly flip and it is unwise to base the rest of the winter based on what it is like in December - look at December 2010, could February 2011 have been any more contrasting? no. Did it follow patterns of previous cold winters? no.

 

write off December? possibly. The whole winter? far too many variables that will come into play to be able to write it off with any certainty at all!

[Weather-history]

The prospects for cold weather fans are even worse than for Man Utd fans, as emotional says i think we can safely write off this winter already apart from frost/fog and hope next winter plays ball. The pattern we currently have is the worse, HP too far east to give us seasonal weather and the atlantic too far west to reset the pattern and at least give us some exciting weather even if mild, its all in a no mans land for the next few weeks and ECM 00Z really is a horror show even GFS runs are better.

What a load of nonsense.How can you write winter off at this stage? Do you know for definite what is going to happen in the New Year? GFS only goes out to Christmas so how can you say its for a few weeks? How many people wrote off wintry prospects for the rest of the winter during early January 2007?Andy Woodcock famously wrote off the rest of winter during early February 2005 on TWO only for late February 2005 to crop up.

[shotski]

Just to add to the above, two days ago people were talking about a bartlett setting up for several weeks but now

the same folk are banging on about the zonal train, I even herd the phrase zonal Bartlett setting up ( what a load of

twaddle) .  The fact is no one knows for sure whats going to happen at the end of next week let alone the whole of

winter.

 

I'm putting my money on a cold and possibly white (for some) Christmas with a potent northerly setting up.

 

Shotski

[RCT]

Check this out! Maybe just maybe http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartscfsukavmaxweek.php?chart=cfses4avsoiltempukweek3.gif

[bluearmy]

Check this out! Maybe just maybe http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartscfsukavmaxweek.php?chart=cfses4avsoiltempukweek3.gif

 

i think that the equivalent of plucking one ens member from the run. there is always a cold one. sorry.

[RCT]

It's popped up a few times over the last month and abit so I think it could be possible. You never know....

[Weather-history]

What it comes down to is that some members have seen the latest charts, see no signs of the cold and snow they want, the panic button has been pressed and emotional histrionics have replaced rational thought processes.

60 years ago this month, we had high pressure to our east enough to have some influence in keeping it dry but not enough to bring cold air. It was a very mild December, milder than any December since 1988 and virtually no frost, infact some places didn't record a single frost for the second half of 1953.

Was it time for snow lovers to give up and panic?

No because 26th Jan-7th Feb 1954 was -2.5C for the CET.

We don't know what is going to happen in the weeks to come.

[snowflakey]

Hope this isn't the wrong forum for what is a rather ignorant question.  I was just wondering that this present Bartlet type set up may do us a favour latter on in the season, if you like cold that is. My thinking is that with a strong PV locking in the very cold air, if and when the PV does split, would the artic air be a lot colder than if we had been tapping into it for a longer time.

[Eugene]

We can only sit this out until some upstream amplification of the jet works it way into the Atlantic pattern to change things.

 

 

Yeah in April

[Catacol]

and its still moderate now

 

 

 

Solar activity is low at present and has been for a fair few days now. There was an uptick in November for sure... so if indeed Solar activity is a big factor then we should see an ebb in westerly influence by month's end providing activity stays low.

 

To be honest I wrote off December in mid November and while it is disappointing to see what is happening at present it really isnt a big surprise. Winter looked likely to be a slow burner at best this year from the signs that were there in November. The only hopeful sign was the early Siberian snow build up, but quickly that early burst of cover disappeared. Fingers crossed for mid Jan to mid Feb.

[DOdo]

incredible that madden can even possible discount what is being shown across the board I hold no hope for this winter full stop although im guilty as the next of jumping onto the excitement of the models over the last month and half.

 

but my original winter ideas look likely to be closer I based most of my ideas on higher solar activity and its still moderate now I know a lot of you talk of lag time ect ect but over all since the high peak recently in the solar output there has been a sharp increase in not only the vortex strength also the jet profile and plenty of other teleconnections have flipped opposite to recent years even worse than recent years but you could the general trend was slowing going back to the late 90s early 2000s type of setup.

 

this don't mean we wont see cold snaps but most of the time the azore European set up is likely to dominate through out this winter its been a single through summer.

 

so heres hoping for a down tick in solar activity then perhaps a more favoured wintry out come could take place perhaps for next winter.

positive ao positive nao and west qbo most point towards unfavourable winter.

 

but cold snaps will always be possible as depressions pass through as is high pressure domination will bring frost fog problems but above average for the rest of December is most likely.

I have heard this from another quarter  a battle royale between the Atlantic and a Siberian occuring around the 20th of December and all of the UK being infleunced by Easterlies or Northeasterly by Christmas.This cold snap lasting till the beginning of January.  The source I have got this from  is quite reliable. I wouldnt  write anything  off just yet. My money is on a White Christmas. Mad Madden could well be right

[summer blizzard]

So guys, if this December is a write off i'm curious as to whether you'd want a cold Jan and Feb or a March 12, April 07 as a repeat.

Edited December 8, 2013 by summer blizzard

[Barry12]

Emotional rollercoaster in November 2009 you also wrote of Winter...

[feb1991blizzard]

So guys, if this December is a write off i'm curious as to whether you'd want a cold Jan and Feb or a March 12, April 07 as a repeat.

 

So guys, if this December is a write off i'm curious as to whether you'd want a cold Jan and Feb or a March 12, April 07 as a repeat.

 

All of those please apart from April 07, I got jack, April 12 I got tonked but my favourite April would have been April 23rd 1981 please, i was too young to remember.

[Catacol]

I have heard this from another quarter  a battle royale between the Atlantic and a Siberian occuring around the 20th of December and all of the UK being infleunced by Easterlies or Northeasterly by Christmas.This cold snap lasting till the beginning of January.  The source I have got this from  is quite reliable. I wouldnt  write anything  off just yet. My money is on a White Christmas. Mad Madden could well be right

 

 

No - Madden is as mad as a brush and heading for a fall. I'd love to see any chart or piece of data to back up your "reliable" source because I can see nothing of the sorts anywhere. Is your source also suggesting that England will win the World Cup in Brazil?

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

This is what you call snow http://on.nfl.com/18haQJb

I'm moving to North America! Lol

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Even at this early juncture its plain to see anyone suggesting high pressure at northern latitudes through December is going to be wayyyyyyyyyy out.

In fact they couldnt be more out if they tried! 

That includes the metoffice,so with December primed to be a very positive NAO month it makes jan and Feb complete and utter guess work.

Sorry if that sounds horrible but just goes to show why long range forecasting is pretty much meaningless,you could get a 4 year old to draw a picture of jan and feb outlook and they would have as much hope of being right as the rest of us..

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I'm not surprised in the slightest.

I am,its going to take an absolutely phenominal shift to see anything like a negative NAO!!

It may happen but if they do a revised forecast i suspect it will look totally different.

[MR EXTREMES]

indeed I did write winter of in November its ok for the uk met or madden to have there thoughts on winter 13/14 I stand by what I say atleast I see a substantial change in upper air patterns and teleconnections.

 

but I want something wintry as much as the next person.

Edited December 9, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

indeed I did write winter of in November its ok for the uk met or madden to have there thoughts on winter 13/14 I stand by what I say atleast I see a substantial change in upper air patterns and teleconnections.

 

but I want something wintry as much as the next person.

Madden is embarrassing.Im suprised he even offers his thoughts anymore how many times can a guy get it so wrong?

Has he any credibilty in the weather world?

[UV-RAY]

I'm not buying that December can be written off for any sustained cold spell granted with the first half you can, but we all know just how quick things can and do change even with the flattest of patterns. Yes it's looks unlikely but not impossible for the latter part of the month.

Edited December 9, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[MP-R]

I'm keeping 2004 in mind (I think it was the other thread I made this point in). The first half of December that year was very anticyclonic albeit cooler than what we are about to be subjected to, then around the 15th it turned rapidly more unsettled and by the 19th I had a covering of snow and we all know what Christmas was like that year! 

 

The models sure are depressing but I'm keeping eyes peeled for sudden changes and surprises may manifest themselves at the last minute.