Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


Recommended Posts

Well bbc have us down for 1c on Friday, so thats from the dogs mouth.

My advice is that this is a fluid situation and what is forecasted for 5 days time will more than likely change, good or bad nothing we can do about it but wait and see what occurs on the day.
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Thought I'd have a look at what the CFS is suggesting for northern blocking this month.

 

Here's the chart with the latest blocking data (chart explanation here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211)

 

Posted Image

 

The average of the last 2 months is 1.5, or between weak and moderate blocking (+ve SLP anomalies to the north). The frequency of the different categories (from -5 to +5) can be seen in the chart below.

 

Posted Image

 

Moderate and strong +ve SLP anomalies were the most frequent outcomes projected by the CFS, totalling half of all forecast in the last 2 months

If we take -5 to -2 as the negative SLP category, -1 to +1 as neutral and +2 to +5 as positive, the percentage of days with those categories forecast are 8.3%, 33.3% and 58.3% respectively.

 

So going by the CFS, we should expect higher than normal sea level pressure to our north this December.

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty much still a newbie in this forum... I used to post a couple of years ago but went back to lurking since then so I guess I'm fairly unexperienced... so from what I can tell it was looking good for a cold spell from the 6th but now we are within a week of it it only looks to be lasting just one day is that right??

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just popped in MOD and its the same pessimists ruling the roost as per usual, expected a mild zonal fest on the models and was shocked to see a stonking ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z run, really they are both fantastic, what the hell are the doom merchants on about.

Sorry, what's MOD? 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I must say that one of the things I am most looking forward to now over the next 2 - 3 weeks is to see whether RJS's forecast for December stays rock solid and we do indeed end up in Euro high territory with mild temps around Xmas. My own thoughts for December are already looking a bit ropey because height rises have moved further to the east... and I find it fascinating that Roger is able to pick these things with alternate methods and get it accurate. I wont even care to be honest if the overall CET prediction is miles out - its all about pattern for me.

 

Not that I want a mild December at all.... quite the opposite: but it will be a fascinating comparison all the same.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I must say that one of the things I am most looking forward to now over the next 2 - 3 weeks is to see whether RJS's forecast for December stays rock solid and we do indeed end up in Euro high territory with mild temps around Xmas. My own thoughts for December are already looking a bit ropey because height rises have moved further to the east... and I find it fascinating that Roger is able to pick these things with alternate methods and get it accurate. I wont even care to be honest if the overall CET prediction is miles out - its all about pattern for me.

 

Not that I want a mild December at all.... quite the opposite: but it will be a fascinating comparison all the same.

Do you have a link for Roger's winter forecast?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not strictly winter discussion but there isn't a spring thread, how about that for a mid march 'disturbances in a cold flow' chart!!!!

Posted Image

Another cold March? CFS teasing again, we can live in hope! Though would want cold and snowy weather Dec-Feb.

Notice the artic high, a massive part in trying to get colder weather here and usually helps us out!

Edited by Mark N
Link to post
Share on other sites

[

Not that I want a mild December at all.... quite the opposite: but it will be a fascinating comparison all the same.

Looks like December 2013 is panning out to be a mild one, though not exceptionally mild in my opinion.Sadly, this week's cold snap will be all too brief. Don't think it will even reach this part of the UK to any great extent.The old problem of a toppling high unfortunately.Mind you, I hate driving in it so I suppose I shouldn't complain.
Link to post
Share on other sites

[

Looks like December 2013 is panning out to be a mild one, though not exceptionally mild in my opinion.

Sadly, this week's cold snap will be all too brief. Don't think it will even reach this part of the UK to any great extent.

The old problem of a toppling high unfortunately.

Mind you, I hate driving in it so I suppose I shouldn't complain.

look what we found a new weather machine that cannot only forecast 5 days ahead he can forecast a month ahead Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image and its not summer easterly winds are not mild Posted Image (easterly winds in winter = Posted Image )

Link to post
Share on other sites

look what we found a new weather machine that cannot only forecast 5 days ahead he can forecast a month ahead Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image and its not summer easterly winds are not mild Posted Image (easterly winds in winter = Posted Image )

well thats what the modles are saying atm easterly wind put hay they change like everyday 

Link to post
Share on other sites

[Looks like December 2013 is panning out to be a mild one, though not exceptionally mild in my opinion.Sadly, this week's cold snap will be all too brief. Don't think it will even reach this part of the UK to any great extent.The old problem of a toppling high unfortunately.Mind you, I hate driving in it so I suppose I shouldn't complain.

 

Can I have a shot of your crystal ball?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like snow will begin at 3pm thursday. Gfs hae us dun for 2c max on Friday. Met office 7c with rain. Rain with -11c uppers? Right....

I don't think the met office ever have us down for snow. Lets be honest.

Oddly they have nw england down for snow when we hae the colder air... Okies.. Totes confused

Edited by smithyweather
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like snow will begin at 3pm thursday. Gfs hae us dun for 2c max on Friday. Met office 7c with rain. Rain with -11c uppers? Right....I don't think the met office ever have us down for snow. Lets be honest.

Not sure where you got the 2C max from, from the GFS?post-18937-0-90509600-1386057349_thumb.jAnd remember, it's not all about the upper temperatures! Of course they have a say in the snow potential, but it is down to a lot of other factors as well!
Link to post
Share on other sites

Probs will be

Upper air temp will be -8c with 500m freezing level at 3pm on Thursday. Sorry but don't see it being marginal at all on Friday or Thursday afternoon don't know whats wrong with met offices heads

The other parameters

Dew point -2c

Wet bulb 4c

H500 523dan

925 temps -2c

Edited by smithyweather
Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a few GFS variables for Friday morning, it might be a short affair but it will feel pretty darn cold in the north!

post-15177-0-73657400-1386069922_thumb.j post-15177-0-95174200-1386069934_thumb.j post-15177-0-30814300-1386069945_thumb.j

Could this be transferred to the Arctic blast thread please mods, i put this in the wrong place. Thanks. :)

Edited by Mapantz
Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a few GFS variables for Friday morning, it might be a short affair but it will feel pretty darn cold in the north!

Posted ImageIMG_20131203_112145.JPG Posted ImageIMG_20131203_111935.JPG Posted ImageIMG_20131203_111612.JPG

Could this be transferred to the Arctic blast thread please mods, i put this in the wrong place. Thanks. Posted Image

 

North Coast looks warm. Here on East Coast, will probably hit 0c. Perhaps -1c

Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly just experienced one of the worst winter storms i have seen since i have lived in Canada...i am currently snowed in...roads are impassable out of my district just tried to go and grab a coffee..cars, buses, trucks abandoned or completely stuck..no work for me today..with the windchill it is below -30c to boot....brrrr

Edited by cheeky_monkey
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...