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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland

    If the sun goes quiet I agree that this is very good news. The correlation between solar activity and blocking patterns is now accepted science i think. GP believed it was a factor in the famous failed easterly of last December... trouble is I dont think we have any idea what the sun will be doing in Dec or Jan or Feb so it is a random factor that we can only hope will fall our way. Will be interesting to folllow solar activity as we move away from this supposed solar maximum. Whatever your attitdue to AGW or Climate Change as a discussion point, a move towards a severe solar minimum as some fairly eminent minds are predicting would have a significant impact on our winter pressure patterns and therefore our temperature profile. Did anyone else spot the little comment in the latest IPCC report which mentioned falling temps by the end of the century in the north atlantic basin as a possibility? Did you spot the comment where they added that one model projection had those temperatures falling substantially by 2080? Pity many of us wont be here... :-P

    One of the worlds top solar scientists says a little ice age could start next year and reach its peak in 2031. Most of us would see that.
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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    I'm still of the opinion that Winter 2013/14 is going to be a slow burner, but with some real interest across the last 5 or 6 weeks. Similar pattern to this March in fact, but much earlier and therefore more servere.

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    All this cold hunting while we have been in a cold spell for over a week!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    My critical period for this winter is around New Year.  Sun to wake up very very grumpy for a short while combining with new moon, stormy period and may shift the hemispheric pattern.  If it fails then I'll be booking a ski holiday to get my 'fix'

     

    We can only wait and see.  Gibby's call is similar to another forecast or two and is not without support.

     

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny
  • Location: West Sussex

    All this cold hunting while we have been in a cold spell for over a week!

     

    1st prize for the quote of the day for me.....if not the week/month!! Really sorry, totally off topic I know, but couldn't have said it any better!!! Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Chorley, Lancashire
  • Location: Chorley, Lancashire

    Hmm CFS model goes for a block from the 18th of December through to next year!!! I know this is a unreliable model for specifics but the pointer is there. Be very interested in the GFS in the next few days!!!

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013112600/run1m/cfsnh-0-534.png?00

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    If the sun goes quiet I agree that this is very good news. The correlation between solar activity and blocking patterns is now accepted science i think. GP believed it was a factor in the famous failed easterly of last December... trouble is I dont think we have any idea what the sun will be doing in Dec or Jan or Feb so it is a random factor that we can only hope will fall our way. Will be interesting to folllow solar activity as we move away from this supposed solar maximum. Whatever your attitdue to AGW or Climate Change as a discussion point, a move towards a severe solar minimum as some fairly eminent minds are predicting would have a significant impact on our winter pressure patterns and therefore our temperature profile.

     

    Did anyone else spot the little comment in the latest IPCC report which mentioned falling temps by the end of the century in the north atlantic basin as a possibility? Did you spot the comment where they added that one model projection had those temperatures falling substantially by 2080? Pity many of us wont be here... :-P

     

    Yes, there are now some European agencies studying the effects of regional variations and are working with Atlantic based modelling for the long term. I think some of the results have been surprising.

     

    http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/projekte/miklip-projekt.html

     

    http://www.ec-earth.org/index.php/research/16-prace-hiresclim-project

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

    I think there are different levels of cold enthusiast in here. Many like me look for cold & snow not just below average temps. Personally I dont get much excitement out of 6c, grey skies and high heating bills.  For the medium level enthusast there is something to be possitive about ; A few northerly topplers and sleety showers. The extreme weather enthusast like myself is dissapointed that there is no sign in any of the models of a prolonged cold and snowy outbreak any time soon.

    I am with you on this one, though levels of excitement are moderated by what we expect from our specific regions! For example, the output from the last 24 hours has been promising for cold and snow if you live in Northern England or Scotland, or a locality at elevation. However, some areas will almost always be marginal for snow. Living in Exeter, where cold and snow are rare, I am just happy to have the cold weather, though ideally I would prefer there to be snow as well! Some of the charts (especially on the 18z and 0z ensembles) have shown the chance of significant snow nationwide and so whilst some might almost expect that from a cold spell because their location is more fortunate, for some, the mere chance is more than is often encountered! Therefore, I am excited that we have cold weather now and that there is the chance of more cold weather and possibly snow to come!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    I think there are different levels of cold enthusiast in here. Many like me look for cold & snow not just below average temps. Personally I dont get much excitement out of 6c, grey skies and high heating bills.  For the medium level enthusast there is something to be possitive about ; A few northerly topplers and sleety showers. The extreme weather enthusast like myself is dissapointed that there is no sign in any of the models of a prolonged cold and snowy outbreak any time soon.

     

    Would have to agree there. From a personal point of view, a cold spell hasn't happened until daytime temperatures have not reached more than 4C for a few days and fallen to at least -2C for a few nights. Otherwise, just a standard UK winter affair.Not liking the chopping and changing from run to run but I suppose it's just indication of the uncertainty about how the PV and mid-atlantic high interact. The last chart of the GFS 06Z sees the PV pretty shredded but us actually in a milder flow still from the southwest. In the meantime however it looks like a continuation of standard late autumn/early winter weather, milder for a few days then chilly for a few days but mainly settled and dry.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Anyone know where I can get the 12z CFS data from the 23rd? Doesn't seem to be on the meteociel site

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

    Is the latest Met Office forecast similiar to mine? Are they going for anticyclonicity dominating?

     

    Well, that's just cheating, going to a generally average winter (precipitation excepted).

     

    If you're a proper forecaster, there has to be ice floes on the Thames etc to have any credibility!

     

    I think that your forecast is a bit more likely to be right than he whose name we must not mention beginning with M.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Well, that's just cheating, going to a generally average winter (precipitation excepted).

     

    If you're a proper forecaster, there has to be ice floes on the Thames etc to have any credibility!

     

    I think that your forecast is a bit more likely to be right than he whose name we must not mention beginning with M.

     

    The Metoffice say they expect a -NAO pattern. A High based solely over the UK would likely translate to a weak +NAO. They must expect the high to be centred further N at times with some form of undercut/lower pressure around the Azores to expect a -NAO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    This afternoon's NAO run continues to keep it either neutral or slightly positive out towards mid December

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

    It looks like Madden has gone on the attack on Facebook and Twitter against those who dare to criticise his winter forecasts!! He terms them trolls and haters https://m.facebook.com/ExactaWeather?id=275256805855578&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FJh9LppI5hA&_rdr

    It seems he's launched an attack on the professional meteorology!!!

    Edited by pandit-scholar
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    It looks like Madden has gone on the attack on Facebook and Twitter against those who dare to criticise his winter forecasts!! He terms them trolls and haters https://m.facebook.com/ExactaWeather?id=275256805855578&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FJh9LppI5hA&_rdrIt seems he's launched an attack on the professional meteorology!!!

    Oh dear... It's sad that people are actually supporting him on there, saying 'keep up the good work' etc... How can they not see he just predicts the same year after year, and very inaccurately most of the time...
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    It looks like Madden has gone on the attack on Facebook and Twitter against those who dare to criticise his winter forecasts!! He terms them trolls and haters https://m.facebook.com/ExactaWeather?id=275256805855578&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FJh9LppI5hA&_rdrIt seems he's launched an attack on the professional meteorology!!!

    But his 'forecasts' are laughing-stock?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex
    But his 'forecasts' are laughing-stock?[/quote

    Problem is he shows no data, charts and maps to back up his forecasts.

    I do remember him

    saying that the UK would see record temperatures back in August in The Express. I don't remember seeing temperatures 100 F in last summer's heatwave!!

    Edited by pandit-scholar
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    But his 'forecasts' are laughing-stock?[/quote

    Problem is he shows no data, charts and maps to back up his forecasts.

    I do remember him

    saying that the UK would see record temperatures back in August in The Express. I don't remember seeing temperatures 100 F in last summer's heatwave!!

    But then, PS, the Express was publishing garbage like that when Ar were a lud!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Lee Snow Fan

    Very interesting especially as someone posted a similar comparison over the US last week, and so it seems the similarity continues

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: East Grinstead (Nr Gatwick) West Sussex 150m asl
  • Location: East Grinstead (Nr Gatwick) West Sussex 150m asl

    It looks like Madden has gone on the attack on Facebook and Twitter against those who dare to criticise his winter forecasts!! He terms them trolls and haters https://m.facebook.com/ExactaWeather?id=275256805855578&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FJh9LppI5hA&_rdrIt seems he's launched an attack on the professional meteorology!!!

    Unfortunately, accepting "trolling" is part and parcel of holding an accurate weather record that others can't or are never likely to match, and you will most probably find that these are competitors/ weather companies with too much time on their hands because of the way they choose to forecast (lazy meteorology)ROLF :p
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