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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    The latest met office contingency planners forecast favours a colder than average December along with January and February

     

    Forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter, with high pressure areas more likely to be centred over or close to the UK

     

    I'm not surprised in the slightest.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    The latest met office contingency planners forecast favours a colder than average December along with January and February

     

    Forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter, with high pressure areas more likely to be centred over or close to the UK

    Maybe you should pin this to your signature SS, that way anyone who accuses you of trolling can see that you obviously posts what the charts and long rangers are showing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Maybe you should pin this to your signature SS, that way anyone who accuses you of trolling can see that you obviously posts what the charts and long rangers are showing.

     

    Or they could be directed here if anyone accuses me of only posting mild related stuff

     

    Posted Image

     

    Current indications for the NAO suggest it will stay natural or slightly above till around mid December

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

    Am I right in saying that after this week there is a lot of uncertainty about what way the weather is going to do.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Am I right in saying that after this week there is a lot of uncertainty about what way the weather is going to do.

     

    Looking at the ensembles its December 3rd onwards which has all options open

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    This afternoons GFS run shows potential for coldies December 3rd onwards this looks to be when a change could happen

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    wow ....states going in the freezer big style....

    Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 4h

    wow, we werent kidding around. Check out record low high temps yesterday. Central pk TIES 133 yr old rec pic.twitter.com/XWVPmdl3kD

    I wonder if he who shall not be named..will claim a victory for this ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    wow ....states going in the freezer big style....Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 4hwow, we werent kidding around. Check out record low high temps yesterday. Central pk TIES 133 yr old rec pic.twitter.com/XWVPmdl3kDI wonder if he who shall not be named..will claim a victory for this ?

    So much for a locked in PV then

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    Posted
  • Location: NW Wales
  • Location: NW Wales

    Just for the sake of being interesting.Western snow gains were up at this time in 2010. However,  more ice growth this year. Look at how close the ice is getting to Iceland compared to 2010.   Will Iceland and the Arctic bridge this year? Looks promising Snow and ice cover for 24/11/2010

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham

    Extremes from met office last night:

     

    Lowest Minimum temperature Braemar -8.1 C (coldest so far)Posted Image Posted Image

    Lowest maximum temperature Aviemore 1.3 C.

    highest maximum temperature tiree 9.6 C.

    Highest rainfall kirkwall 2 mm

    Sunniest morecambe 6.3 hours.

     

    Wonder if there is snow lying in braemar village?

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Extremes from met office last night:

     

    Lowest Minimum temperature Braemar -8.1 C (coldest so far)Posted Image Posted Image

    Lowest maximum temperature Aviemore 1.3 C.

    highest maximum temperature tiree 9.6 C.

    Highest rainfall kirkwall 2 mm

    Sunniest morecambe 6.3 hours.

     

    Wonder if there is snow lying in braemar village?

    There's a tiny bit of patchy snow cover left, but I'm sure that'll all be gone by the end of today with the miler temperatures

    http://braemarscotland.co.uk/snowgate-webcam/

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    interesting forecast by the met for planners for this winter. Over the pond parts of the u.s is about to be put into the freezer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

    I shall be back in the UK from mid December for three weeks and am hoping for some good cold to welcome me back.  Some decent-looking charts at the moment suggesting possible blocking which would be rather nice, but we will see!  More typical colder weather and darker nights would be more normal than walking along in shorts and flip flops wondering why there are Christmas decs going up in the street...

     

    In the meantime (off-topic) I can enjoy the NZ summer building, even though "winter" and spring have thrown up plenty of sunshine and good temperatures.

     

    Hope you're all doing well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland

    The sun is looking like it is on the way down from octobers highs which coinsided with an active atlantic train. All measurements looking low and to stay low. Wonder if hlb will follow in the next few weeks.

    www.solarham.net/wwv.htm

    Edited by tynevalleysnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    If I were to have a guess at how winter 2013-14 might turn out, I would go for a pretty anticyclonic type akin to 1933-34, 1963-64 and 1991-92. Precipitation levels below the average. Temperatures close to average. Manchester winter index in the 40s

    Is the latest Met Office forecast similiar to mine? Are they going for anticyclonicity dominating?
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Again

    Anyone help why I can't quote anyone ???

     

    BFTP

     

    Try clearing your cache

     

    you could also try doing a full refresh Ctrl and F5

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    Is the snowgate correct representative of snow itself in the Village?.How far is the Snowgate from the village?.

     

    On the southern edge of town, quarter of a mile south of the centre next to the caravan park. Altitude just over 340 metres, about the same as most of town.

    Edited by Interitus
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The EC32 model has gone back to a settled / high pressure outlook well into December

     

    @MattHugo81

     

    Some support from the CFSv2 but latest EC32 back on the high pressure trail, with a particularly settled/high pressure outlook well into Dec

     

    And from Ian Fergusson on Twitter

     

    â€@fergieweather

     

    the Met Office lean towards a slightly colder than average winter in their latest (Nov 21) assessment.

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    The sun is looking like it is on the way down from octobers highs which coinsided with an active atlantic train. All measurements looking low and to stay low. Wonder if hlb will follow in the next few weeks.www.solarham.net/wwv.htm

     

    If the sun goes quiet I agree that this is very good news. The correlation between solar activity and blocking patterns is now accepted science i think. GP believed it was a factor in the famous failed easterly of last December... trouble is I dont think we have any idea what the sun will be doing in Dec or Jan or Feb so it is a random factor that we can only hope will fall our way. Will be interesting to folllow solar activity as we move away from this supposed solar maximum. Whatever your attitdue to AGW or Climate Change as a discussion point, a move towards a severe solar minimum as some fairly eminent minds are predicting would have a significant impact on our winter pressure patterns and therefore our temperature profile.

     

    Did anyone else spot the little comment in the latest IPCC report which mentioned falling temps by the end of the century in the north atlantic basin as a possibility? Did you spot the comment where they added that one model projection had those temperatures falling substantially by 2080? Pity many of us wont be here... :-P

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    The EC32 model has gone back to a settled / high pressure outlook well into December

     

    @MattHugo81

     

    Some support from the CFSv2 but latest EC32 back on the high pressure trail, with a particularly settled/high pressure outlook well into Dec

     

    And from Ian Fergusson on Twitter

     

    â€@fergieweather

     

    the Met Office lean towards a slightly colder than average winter in their latest (Nov 21) assessment.

    So the ECM 32 flips again, it truly is woeful IMO and even with upgrades it continues to pick up differing signals on a weekly basis.

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