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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, Sunny Days
  • Location: Brighton

    Some of the Journalists at the Express should be shot - funny how they keep going to Jonathan Powell and James Madden who always seem to 'offer' completely OTT forecasts that they 'want' to hear! Sorry probably a bit off topic.

     

    Agreed. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Someone posted the other day that crazy weather stories add about 10% to sales. That's the only reason they print this p1sh.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

    Why are you giving the ex*ress more exposure?

    If we don't criticise and challenge this rubbish, lots of the less informed amongst Joe public outside this forum, especially the elderly and the vulnerable would be unnecessarily scared out of their wits reading this. Lots of people on Facebook share the Express articles on there as they believe them!! Edited by pandit-scholar
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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    It's about time the express,star and mail have press regulation on weather stories. It might actually stop Madden and Powell spouting utter sensationalist garbage!

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Someone posted the other day that crazy weather stories add about 10% to sales. That's the only reason they print this p1sh.

     

    They've probably been reading the MO thread here and thought some of the folk needed a wee bit of cheering up. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Here's my 'hunch' forecast for Winter 2013/14 - bear in mind that my equivalent one 12 months was pretty spot on.

    Dominated by HP over the UK; average or just below average temps but predominately dry. Late December/early January will bring a more unsettled spell to all parts of the UK.

    By mid January and into February it will settle down again with temps around average.

    V little snow this Winter anywhere, in the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife

    Here's my 'hunch' forecast for Winter 2013/14 - bear in mind that my equivalent one 12 months was pretty spot on.Dominated by HP over the UK; average or just below average temps but predominately dry. Late December/early January will bring a more unsettled spell to all parts of the UK.By mid January and into February it will settle down again with temps around average.V little snow this Winter anywhere, in the UK.

     

    Well that's depressing if you like cold 

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    @bristle boy. I c your winter 2013-2014 won't be published in the express or the daily fale lol. I do hope your forecast is way off the mark though and that's nothing personal. A winter with out snow is rather boring and it would bring back bad memories of those from winters before 2007.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

    Looks about average for the UK nothing too cold and is that a slight bit of orange across us too on bottom chart?, looking below average across Eastern USA, something that has been cropping up a while now to happen. And starting at the end of the weekend judging by some forecasts.

    ]If I'm reading these charts correct then they are actually quite good if you want cold.. Remember the colors represent percentage so if you look at the bottom chart ( probability of DJF being below normal temperature) south of the Uk and much of Western Europe has.60-80 % probability being below normal temps. Also the top chart ( probability of being above normal temps) much of the area above uk Greenland, pole etc has a probability of 80- 100 % of being above normal temps! which may imply blocking, so a good update from the Met o if you want cold.....I think, correct me if I'm wronghttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-probTies in with Simon keeling video of a cold blocked December
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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    For those of you who think such things matter (personally, I don't, but that's a discussion for a different thread) solar activity appears to be on the wane:

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    For those of you who think such things matter (personally, I don't, but that's a discussion for a different thread) solar activity appears to be on the wane:

     

    Posted Image

    Yep latest SESC counts show after the highest activity we have seen for some time things have calmed down somewhat over the last couple of days:

     

    post-1038-0-30463900-1385108380_thumb.pn

     

    (Green is 10.7cm Flux, Blue is Sunspot Count)

     

    SK

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    EC32 model not offering much for December currently (signal wise)

     

    @MattHugo81 

     

    EC32 has had its upgrade, but provides not much insight into Dec with a particularly 'weak' signal for any one weather type. Any ones guess.

     

    With all these stupid headlines in the Express about winter you can just see this one coming in average or above today we have winter lasting till May!

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

    EC32 model not offering much for December@MattHugo81 EC32 has had its upgrade, but provides not much insight into Dec with a particularly 'weak' signal for any one weather type. Any ones guess.With all these stupid headlines in the Express about winter you can just see this one coming in average or above today we have winter lasting till May!

    how many times do we have to Say that the ECM 32 is garbage Edited by Chess01
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    Posted
  • Location: newcastle,north east
  • Weather Preferences: severe cold
  • Location: newcastle,north east

    may I ask everyone's opinion as to which chart is the best to look at overall, but let me stress I only believe them up to 3 days

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    may I ask everyone's opinion as to which chart is the best to look at overall, but let me stress I only believe them up to 3 days

     

    Stick to the euro models (UKMO and ECM)

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    For those of you who think such things matter (personally, I don't, but that's a discussion for a different thread) solar activity appears to be on the wane:

     

    Posted Image

     

    Just in time for the jet to start migrating south, Europe to cool down and the brutal cold to start filtering over to our shores! Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Lincoln

    Yep latest SESC counts show after the highest activity we have seen for some time things have calmed down somewhat over the last couple of days:

     

    Posted ImageSESC-Solar-Count.png

     

    (Green is 10.7cm Flux, Blue is Sunspot Count)

     

    SK

    It is the weakest in 200 years and sun also is undergoing one of its oddest magnetic reversals on record.

    It should signal the peak of the solar maximum, for some reason The sun's north magnetic pole reversed polarity more than a year ago, so it has the same polarity as the south pole. It's delay between the two reversals is not normal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    The Express are now going for the longest UK winter ever, even longer than the Great Frost of 1683/4!! They are going crazier and crazier everyday!!! http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/444385/Long-range-UK-weather-forecast-warns-snow-storms-and-Arctic-winds-could-last-SIX-months

     

     

    The press complaints commission code of practice says "

     

    Accuracy

     

    i) The Press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information, including pictures. ii) A significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence, and - where appropriate - an apology published.

     

    I will write to them (In May)

     

    Some people can take this seriously

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    The press complaints commission code of practice says "

     

    Accuracy

     

    i) The Press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information, including pictures. ii) A significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence, and - where appropriate - an apology published.

     

    I will write to them (In May)

     

    Some people can take this seriously

     

    Indeed - the Express has an elderly readership - it would be extremely sad if some of those people made choices to reduce their fuel consumption in order to budget for this long, extreme winter.

     

    As a retired journalist, I abhor this type of media hype - I will not be waiting to lodge a complaint - it has been sent.... with more to follow......

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Right then, I thought I might as well post this as it holds quite a lot of information of how potential December could pan out.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yP-mgEB6Q4s

    Notice the sheer persistence of that Pacific block, potentially showing high pressure towards the north east and interestingly a battleground set up establishing mid-month.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

    EC32 model not offering much for December

     

    @MattHugo81 

     

    EC32 has had its upgrade, but provides not much insight into Dec with a particularly 'weak' signal for any one weather type. Any ones guess.

     

    With all these stupid headlines in the Express about winter you can just see this one coming in average or above today we have winter lasting till May!

     

    I don't think offering much is the correct termilogy to use...you could give the wrong impression..most people on here are cold fans.

     

    I think the word to say is that that there no clear signal as per matt hugo's tweet.

     

    JMA is interesting...

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    It is the weakest in 200 years and sun also is undergoing one of its oddest magnetic reversals on record.It should signal the peak of the solar maximum, for some reason The sun's north magnetic pole reversed polarity more than a year ago, so it has the same polarity as the south pole. It's delay between the two reversals is not normal.

     

    the delay between the reversals can happen that is why we have had a twin peak this time around and if you go back and look for other cycles with two peaks the same thing will have happened during those cycles as well

     

    EDIT: do hope your forecast is right BFTV those charts look fantastic

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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