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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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We are all guilty as charged Posted Image

 

Indeed! And best to look at the reliable time frame, especially when there's some potentially interesting weather out in the beginning of FI from a coldie's perspective, not to mention the potential for ice days for Scotland, N.Ireland, Ireland and northern England this week under high pressure. Posted Image

 

And I know you're a new member, apologies - you'll learn lots here though, particularly with regards to the CFS being awful in the long term, save for trying to ascertain the general pattern for particular months, among many other things :)

Edited by NorthernRab
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Hi all

I'm new to this forum and have a average knowledge reading the old charts, I'm no expert by any means!

I've been following these forums for years and decided to post!

Doing allsorts here in Huddersfield... had rain, sleet, snow and hail tonight so far!

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SSTs interesting. Profile in the pacific is certainly going to help promote an alaskan high with consequent trough over the eastern US. Anomalies in the atlantic are trending cooler. Current chart has removed nearly all positive anomalies but maintained the cold pooling to the west of Spain. Not the perfect tripole signature, but not too bad for helping sustain a mid atlantic ridge.

 

Posted Image

 

 

I dont think it will be long before we see an atlantic ridge pump back up once this current spell declines in a week or so. Further out, and a maintenance of this SST profile would help heights over greenland I think. To my basic eye more evidence of  a colder second half to winter.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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one thing I will say after going through so many charts and making the videos from what I am seeing in the models just now we still look in a pattern conducive to high latitude blocking.

 

I may be only looking from one angle with going through so many blocked winters but that could also be a plus point to go with my post.

 

still looks like blocking could pop up in the charts at short notice at any time.

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Is blocking not being shown on the charts today from around the 5th of December?

 

yes but it is in the process of sinking just now I was meaning onwards from that as if you look at the videos I have been posting it takes more than one shot most of the time to get heights up to higher latitudes but the fact we have already had one go is good and we could see more goes to follow and in not too long a timeframe either.

 

i'll post the video of 2009/10 tomorrow afternoon to show you how blocks move up and sink then move back up again

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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It's looking fairly positive for cold though right?

 

sorry I miss read your post before yes there is on the GFS but that's out in FI and we need to see it much closer as we cant say for sure if that will happen or not due to it being so far out as models can change a lot closer than that.

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Yeah they are likely to change but at least we are seeing positive signs 

 

 

yeah we are looking at very positive signs with the fact we have already had one shot at setting up a block and there is still some showing in the longer range on the GFS especially with the fact this winter wasn't looking good from the signals running up to this point we are in a great position.

 

hopefully the GFS will hold onto the blocking as the current forecast we are seeing just now is pretty much the pattern we had been seeing on the GFS over the last few days and the other models came round.

 

now if we can keep the blocking till inside 240 and see it appear on other models we may be looking at something but until then we will just have to wait and see.

 

EDIT: sorry about miss reading your first post its just been a very long day going through thousands of charts and my brain is a little frazzled.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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not only it misleads new comers but some of the times i beleave gaz1985's posts r there to get a reaction and wined peeps up. I c some folks r comparing this nov to nov 62 if only weather worked like that.

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not only it misleads new comers but some of the times i beleave gaz1985's posts r there to get a reaction and wined peeps up. I c some folks r comparing this nov to nov 62 if only weather worked like thatI

I find it more than comical that every year people compare previous years..and say its is like 1962 or 1978 and nowadays its just like 2009 or 2010..if nothing transpires in December be prepared for the its very similar to Jan 1947 quotes come mid Jan..or dont forget how cold March 2013 was as February draws to a close. No 2 years are ever remotely the same whether it be cold or mild..in fact i have never seen anyone chirp on about this month is very similar to Nov 1988 or 1974?

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I posted this in my regional thread but you may not see it

 

Not been funny mate but why not start a thread to post these video's that way there all in one simple location instead of posting it into all the regionals

 

This would be a good spot for them http://forum.netweat...storic-weather/

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I posted this in my regional thread but you may not see it

 

Not been funny mate but why not start a thread to post these video's that way there all in one simple location instead of posting it into all the regionals

 

This would be a good spot for them http://forum.netweat...storic-weather/

Good idea... At least we know where they are if we want to look back, Posted in all these different threads it's almost impossible to get quick access.

 

Good work anyway BuriedundersnowPosted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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SUMMER SUN this is what I replied in the regional

 

was thinking about that but not all people go round the whole site either due to being on phone or just not knowing there way about and I don't feel people should not get to see them due to this when it only takes me a few minutes to put them somewhere that is accessed by most members on the forums especially through a period like this when the models aren't showing very much and its a nice thing for people to look through and not get too downhearted with what we are seeing just now as it shows that first shot doesn't always work and 2 or 3 goes are sometimes necessary.

 

Good idea... At least we know where they are if we want to look back, Posted in all these different threads it's almost impossible to get quick access.

 

Good work anyway BuriedundersnowPosted Image

 

if you want to look back at them they are all going in my signature just like to post them as I finish for the people who don't fully understand there way around things.

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SUMMER SUN this is what I replied in the regional

 

was thinking about that but not all people go round the whole site either due to being on phone or just not knowing there way about and I don't feel people should not get to see them due to this when it only takes me a few minutes to put them somewhere that is accessed by most members on the forums especially through a period like this when the models aren't showing very much and its a nice thing for people to look through and not get too downhearted with what we are seeing just now as it shows that first shot doesn't always work and 2 or 3 goes are sometimes necessary.

 

 

if you want to look back at them they are all going in my signature just like to post them as I finish for the people who don't fully understand there way around things.

 

Yes saw your reply

 

:)

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I find it more than comical that every year people compare previous years..and say its is like 1962 or 1978 and nowadays its just like 2009 or 2010..if nothing transpires in December be prepared for the its very similar to Jan 1947 quotes come mid Jan..or dont forget how cold March 2013 was as February draws to a close. No 2 years are ever remotely the same whether it be cold or mild..in fact i have never seen anyone chirp on about this month is very similar to Nov 1988 or 1974?

 

Yes, 74 and 88 have appeared in the analogs too. The purpose of those are to look at how similar upper air patterns developed and use as a general guide as to how they may evolve; much in the way that John Holmes uses upper air 500 height charts as a tool for predicting up to a fortnight ahead, analogs can provide something similar.  Of course they are not a tool for forecasting snow IMBY on x-y day, exactly as happened in the year quoted.

 

All the teleconnections, oscillations and SST's may be different - there are so many possible permutations - you'll never get two exactly the same.

not only it misleads new comers but some of the times i beleave gaz1985's posts r there to get a reaction and wined peeps up. I c some folks r comparing this nov to nov 62 if only weather worked like that.

 

I'm rather partial to being wined up. Posted Image

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Simon Keeling has made a video a general look at the rest of this month and with some thoughts on cold risk next month

 

 

Looks good. If it comes off it will blow my December forecast right out of the water!

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