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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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This is not a write off post but I am not confident of potent cold before xmas now, I never was truly on board, lets hope some foundations can at least be layed in the coming weeks

 

Why are you not confident? Xmas is over a month away. 2 weeks a go no one saw this cold spell coming so anything can happen between now and xmas

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If anyone is interested, here is an excerpt of a convo between me and Fred (BFTP). This was my reply to a message he sent me

 

''Hi Fred, I've actually been quietly thinking that this may well be the 'big one'. Though I've not said anything to anyone. I've given hints in the winter thread about a big -AO winter etc etc. I'm not really willing to stick my neck out with such wild predictions as the weather makes fools of us all! '78/'79 has also been running through my mind....''

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Why are you not confident? Xmas is over a month away. 2 weeks a go no one saw this cold spell coming so anything can happen between now and xmas

tbf I did see it coming - look at my sig but didn't think it would last.

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This is not a write off post but I am not confident of potent cold before xmas now, I never was truly on board, lets hope some foundations can at least be layed in the coming weeks

Don't write anything off just yet !

 

Just been looking back at Dec 2010 This is what the GFS gave out deep into FI on the 30th Nov for the 16th Dec

 

 

Posted Image

 

And this is what we got Posted Image So don't give up just Yet.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Don't write anything off just yet !

 

Just been looking back at Dec 2010 This is what the GFS gave out deep into FI on the 30th Nov for the 16th Dec

 

 

Posted Image

 

And this is what we got Posted Image So don't give up just Yet.

 

Posted Image

 

 

I just don't think the forecast wave 2 activity will be able to stop the strong upper vortex from downwelling, at least for a while anyway, I still think hlb on offrr later in winter.

 

 

EDIT - yes I know a spit is forecast in the mid strat but for how long with temps average at best in the polar regions, we could still have a coldish dec but more likely to be due to faux cold at the start.

 

Agree now with not taking any output  beyond day 7, perhaps ens day 10 in straightforward setups (transitions to hlb rarely are) seriously unless backed by background signals (the most importan of which is the stratosphere)

 

Note I said I am not confident, it doesn't mean it cannot happen, I would love to see a parallel thread for this date in 2009 though TBF, I bet it wasn't loaded with bullish posts then, I would love to see that netweather  video where they all sat around a table, its gone now though.

 

As I have said before, if the Aleutian and Siberian ridges keep blasting away at that vortex, it will fall eventually, I don't understand these matters very scientifically but I have run through a heck of a lot of winters on the H500 reanalysis charts from Nov to March and I do know what a promising chart looks like and you do tend to get a feel for what is likely down the line, nothing really scientific but just instinct, it seems to me that we need to keep at least 2 ridges blasting at that vortex simultaneously to get it to completely shred thus giving us a chance of prolonged and deep cold.

 

I would advise anyone on this thread who is a novice if they have time, to run through the Northern hemisphere reanalysis charts on meteociel through winters of the past, you do tend to get a feel and it will stand you in good stead when it comes to analysing the  NWP runs on the MOD thread,

 

 

Here is a good starting point and to be fair it will look like I am contradicting myself here because this proves, yes that anything is possible.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=1&hour=0&year=1987&map=4&mode=2

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Manchester Winter Index will be starting soon, 4 of the last 5 winters have passed the 100 threshold mark.

Yes since 2008 the winters have been great round these parts Mr Data.

I have some pics on my FB page of me being stood in dfifts up to my waistline up strinesdale resovoir in Oldham.

Brought back some wondeful memories from my (distant) childhood.

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I find it amazing that one chart says one thing and another chart says something else, not two charts say the same thing after 3 days, but yet people still go by what they are saying 10 days - 2 weeks down the road, charts are only as good as the data is put into them, but after 3 days they are useless, our climate/weather system is that sensitive not even models can tell you what's happening.

 

The other thing is that even the great almighty MET Office has said that this November has been on average 3 degrees colder than last November, does that tell you something, I believe that we are going to have a cold winter, and a white Christmas.

 

I also believe that the winter of 09/10 was so cold was caused by the BP oil leak clogging up and nearly stopping the North Atlantic Current, I could be wrong but that's what I believe. 

 

Come on winter, let it, let it snow, let it snow, Posted Image

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Jamstec has now updated for November its signalling an average to marginally below winter temperature wise for most, Its hard to tell but I think the south west could be marginally above

 

Posted Image

 

Rainfall looks average to marginally above in a few places

 

Posted Image

 

From Matt Hugo on twitter

 

Some increase in confidence this morning for a more Atlantic influence as we move into early Dec with possible W or SW'ly winds developing.

 

@DerekTheWeather quiet, settled last week of November then? #boring

 

@MattHugo81 - Increasingly zonal by the looks. Heights fall to the north, high pressure declines to the S or SW etc. #NoSignOfCold

Edited by Summer Sun
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Jamstec has now updated for November its signalling an average to marginally below winter temperature wise for most, Its hard to tell but I think the south west could be marginally above

 

Posted Image

 

Rainfall looks average to marginally above in a few places

 

Posted Image

 

From Matt Hugo on twitter

 

Some increase in confidence this morning for a more Atlantic influence as we move into early Dec with possible W or SW'ly winds developing.

 

@DerekTheWeather quiet, settled last week of November then? #boring

 

@MattHugo81 - Increasingly zonal by the looks. Heights fall to the north, high pressure declines to the S or SW etc. #NoSignOfCold

Amazing how Matt Hugo changes his mind what seems like every five minutes. A week ago he was going for northern blocking for the forseable!

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Snow warnings issued for the following locations above 200 meters for Scotland and above 300 meters for locations in the England warnings, less cold air will quickly following so any lying snow will melt quite quickly

 

Highlands & Eilean Siar

Grampian Central,

Tayside & Fife

North West England

North East England

Yorkshire & Humber

West Midlands

East Midlands

 

Issued at: 0946 on Wed 20 Nov 2013

Valid from: 1000 on Wed 20 Nov 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Wed 20 Nov 2013

 

Showers during Wednesday are likely to fall as snow above 200-300 metres in northern Scotland, with some temporary accumulations of 1-3 cm of snow on roads above 250 metres during daylight hours, but 2-5 cm is possible this evening with 5-10 cm above 400-500 metres. The snow showers will be accompanied by strong northerly winds. The public should be aware of the potential for difficult driving conditions and some minor travel disruption.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Frequent and at times heavy showers will be driven across northern Scotland by strong northerly winds. The showers will fall as snow at times, chiefly above 200 metres, with an increasing risk of snow accumulating on roads during the evening.

 

Issued at: 1038 on Wed 20 Nov 2013

Valid from: 1700 on Wed 20 Nov 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Wed 20 Nov 2013

 

An area of more organised showers will move south across northern England during Wednesday evening. The showers will fall as sleet, snow and hail on high ground, before turning to rain within a few hours. Temporary accumulations of 2-5 cm of snow are possible within 2-3 hours above 300-400 metres. The public should be aware of the possibility of difficult driving conditions and some minor travel disruption on higher Pennine routes.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An occlusion will bring a band of more organised showers south across many parts of northern England during Wednesday evening. The air will be cold enough for snow to fall over high ground, although less cold air will quickly follow from the northeast, such that snow will turn to rain with any lying snow melting.

 

Ice warnings are also out

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1384905600&regionName=uk

Edited by Summer Sun
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Jamstec has now updated for November its signalling an average to marginally below winter temperature wise for most, Its hard to tell but I think the south west could be marginally above

 

 

 

Rainfall looks average to marginally above in a few places

 

 

 

From Matt Hugo on twitter

 

Some increase in confidence this morning for a more Atlantic influence as we move into early Dec with possible W or SW'ly winds developing.

 

@DerekTheWeather quiet, settled last week of November then? #boring

 

@MattHugo81 - Increasingly zonal by the looks. Heights fall to the north, high pressure declines to the S or SW etc. #NoSignOfCold

 

Another rather poor run for coldies! 

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That jamstec run had the whole of the northern hemisphere warmer or slightly warmer than average. This i cant see, the whole of the NH cant be above average. UK gets a slightly cooler look but i suspect this is a model run like many others struggling with the various factors involved in forecasting a sudden event!!!

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That Jamstec just looks strange. Below average for the British Isles yet above average for everywhere around it?A procession of Northerly topplers perhaps as a prevailing Winter synoptic?

 

That's exactly what I was thinking and couldn't make it out at all.  Scotland won't do so bad with repeating northerly topplers!

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