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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    does anyone know what joe b`s thoughts/predictions for the uk/european winter are ?

     

    not heard any predictions from him but he did tweet last week saying the pattern reminded him of 2009 but I wouldn't read too much into that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    not heard any predictions from him but he did tweet last week saying the pattern reminded him of 2009 but I wouldn't read too much into that.

     

    Yeah I saw that

     

     

    Wet and wild Nov 2009 UK followed by severe cold in winter as block developed. Eurasian snow very similar to that right now

     

    Pattern in Europe looking more like 2009 every day, nw europe gets walloped 28.65 storm attacks UK/NW France Sunday pm/mon gales heavy rain

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    just saw this on twitter he's a guy that does things with joe b

     

    Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 12m

    Meteorology big data is just getting started. When NCEP upgrades GFS next year, we should have a fair competition w/Europeans.

     

    is that an American admitting that the GFS is a load of crap.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    just saw this on twitter he's a guy that does things with joe b Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 12m Meteorology big data is just getting started. When NCEP upgrades GFS next year, we should have a fair competition w/Europeans. is that an American admitting that the GFS is a load of crap.

    Most Americans from my anecdotal experience readily admit the GFS is lagging behind the Euros while ahead of the rest. This sounds good though, and the competition in the NWP arena is healthy.Anyway, as regards Winter, it'll be 2 to 3 weeks before we have an idea of how December will even start let alone the rest of it so I wouldn't get too up or down with any of these LRFs.
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Nevis range today

     

    post-18233-0-12036800-1383171883_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    With some poor looking Winter forecasts (for coldies) issued during the last few days, I have been thinking about some milder Winters which contained at least some interest for cold lovers.  The Winter that stands out for me during more recent times is 2002/03, although I think this was mainly for the south and south east with less interest elsewhere for that Winter.  Looking at the period November to January.

     

    November 2002 CET 8.5C

    December 2002 CET 5.7C

    January 2003 CET 4.5C

    February 2003 CET 3.9C

     

    That period looks pretty poor on paper but on January 8th, London had it biggest snowfall since February 1991 and there was another snowfall on the 30th January when many motorists got stranded on the M11.  If the latest Met Office contingency forecast turns out to be close to the mark, we could have a similar type of Winter this year at least temperature wise.  Although February went on to be the coldest month of Winter, the cold spells were of the dry anti-cyclonic type and the month finished on a very mild note.

     

    The mild Winters of 2003/04 and 2004/05 also provided interest at times for many, although there wasn't much in the way of lying snow for the south away from high ground and the east coast during those Winters.

     

    Even the exceptionally mild January 2007 had a moderate snow event!

     

    So although nothing new, this illustrates nicely that if we are to have a mild Winter, there should be at least some interest at some point!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    With some poor looking Winter forecasts (for coldies) issued during the last few days, I have been thinking about some milder Winters which contained at least some interest for cold lovers.  The Winter that stands out for me during more recent times is 2002/03, although I think this was mainly for the south and south east with less interest elsewhere for that Winter.  Looking at the period November to January.

     

    November 2002 CET 8.5C

    December 2002 CET 5.7C

    January 2003 CET 4.5C

    February 2003 CET 3.9C

     

    That period looks pretty poor on paper but on January 8th, London had it biggest snowfall since February 1991 and there was another snowfall on the 30th January when many motorists got stranded on the M11.  If the latest Met Office contingency forecast turns out to be close to the mark, we could have a similar type of Winter this year at least temperature wise.  Although February went on to be the coldest month of Winter, the cold spells were of the dry anti-cyclonic type and the month finished on a very mild note.

     

    The mild Winters of 2003/04 and 2004/05 also provided interest at times for many, although there wasn't much in the way of lying snow for the south away from high ground and the east coast during those Winters.

     

    Even the exceptionally mild January 2007 had a moderate snow event!

     

    So although nothing new, this illustrates nicely that if we are to have a mild Winter, there should be at least some interest at some point!

     

     

    Yes, I actually thought late Jan 04, Feb 05, and late winter in both 06 and 07 were actually good, although that might also have something to do with the fact that I was used to such garbage by then and an inch I was happy with.

     

    EDIT : all those from a West Midlands POV though, not a West Yorks POV!

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Having scrawled through the CFS model right up until August 2014 it now appears there will be a cold shot around xmas and another in the latter half of January and February. Ironically next summer is showing strong + height anomalies over Greenland, could the elusive Greenland high makes it's long overdue summer appearance for 2014.Posted Image

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    18th of Nov is when Joe B will be giving his winter pedictions on WheatherBell.

    One can hardly wait!Posted Image 

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    I havent checked but would be surprised if the cfs model went very high into the strat in which case it couldnt forsee a SSW.(I dont think its too fair to compare accuweather and JM. I suspect the accuweather forwcaster has qualifications in meteorology.)

     

    On the contrary they model to around ~ 0.1mb

    There are quite a few papers examining CFS strat forecasting, and here is the abstract from an interesting presentation from earlier this year

    https://ams.confex.com/ams/19Fluid17Middle/webprogram/Paper227228.html

     

    Click the link to the presentation video and after a quick description of the model, the discussion about stratospheric forecasting begins at about 3:45

     

    edit: or skip to 13:30 for the summary

    Edited by Interitus
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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    One can hardly wait!Posted Image 

     

    No need to be sarcastic Posted Image I'd be more confident of a cold winter if he forecast it over certain other forecasters...

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    No need to be sarcastic Posted Image I'd be more confident of a cold winter if he forecast it over certain other forecasters...

    Indeed, I rate Joe B highly and just wish we had a forecaster with as much knowledge and enthusiasm as he shows.
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    No need to be sarcastic Posted Image I'd be more confident of a cold winter if he forecast it over certain other forecasters...

    Now that I'll grant you!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    No need to be sarcastic Posted Image I'd be more confident of a cold winter if he forecast it over certain other forecasters...

    yep me too....last year (sept 2012)  he said for the uk to expect 2 foot of snow for winter 2012/13 and although it didnt all come at once, 2 foot of snow in my neck of the woods exceed that over the period....barring any drifts too...so i have to admit i have no reason not to sit up and listen to him

    Edited by bryan629
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    On the contrary they model to around ~ 0.1mb

    There are quite a few papers examining CFS strat forecasting, and here is the abstract from an interesting presentation from earlier this year

    https://ams.confex.com/ams/19Fluid17Middle/webprogram/Paper227228.html

     

    Click the link to the presentation video and after a quick description of the model, the discussion about stratospheric forecasting begins at about 3:45

     

    edit: or skip to 13:30 for the summary

     

    remiss of me. i did some digging and noted it runs to 64 levels as per the op GFS. i should have reposted this info. thanks for putting it on here. note SK's post re the gfs upgrade next year. assume they will also increase the number of vertical levels as ecm op currently has double the number @ 137.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Jaywick, Essex, 3m
  • Location: Jaywick, Essex, 3m

     

    James madden has posted this on his website.
     
    The dominant conditions of largely unsettled weather and strong/severe winds is also likely to continue into November, in particular, around bonfire night. This will also bring the additional risk for some further violent storms and hurricane strength weather events throughout the first half of November. November is also likely to turn significantly and progressively colder than of late. This will allow some wintry/snow showers to develop in places, with an increased risk of more widespread snow developing across the country, especially in the second half of the month in some northern and eastern parts of the country.

     

    Now I am mad. He promised us glaciers forming in the UK this winter, a month ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    Now I am mad. He promised us glaciers forming in the UK this winter, a month ago.

    Goes against his actual winter forecast for November

    Edited by MPG
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    sorry but his pronouncements, note I do not say forecast, get wilder and wilder. It amazes me to think anyone will pay money for anything from him. If I could be bothered I would apply the same rigorous checking to his 'work' as I have done previously to the 500mb anomaly charts!

    I doubt the result would even approach 30% for accuracy, about the same I think as if you predict this winter will be the same as last winter for evermore.

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Goes against his actual winter forecast for November

     

    Which is why no one should believe a word he say's

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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    Which is why no one should believe a word he say's

    Just maybe, just maybe there is a small part of you Summer Sun that prays he's wrong!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Just maybe, just maybe there is a small part of you Summer Sun that prays he's wrong!

     

    When has he ever got a forecast right for winter? every year its the same old stuff, mega snowfall, Siberian temperatures and now glaciers!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    sorry but his pronouncements, note I do not say forecast, get wilder and wilder. It amazes me to think anyone will pay money for anything from him. If I could be bothered I would apply the same rigorous checking to his 'work' as I have done previously to the 500mb anomaly charts!

    I doubt the result would even approach 30% for accuracy, about the same I think as if you predict this winter will be the same as last winter for evermore.

     

    There's always money to be made in telling people what they want to hear.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    ive written of this winter already I think solar activity has certainly destroyed chances this winter but we still have the next solar lull to come at some point so as this winter goes vortex is going to be very intense and not in a favoured area.

    and by mid novemeber we will know winter is going to be a pretty above average winter with plenty of wind and rain anything settled will be short lived anything cold will most likely be from arctic cold snaps instead of cold spell as depressions pass through so most wintry stuff will be mostly restricted to the north.

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