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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Just to clarify here, i'm no Guardian reader, or a reader of any newspaper to be honest. I posted the link about JP because it is true. In the space of about a week (last year) there were four headlines saying that cold would prevail throughout the month, then floods the next day, then a storm on the way, then finally some decent sunshine and warmth to come, JP quoted them each time. I remember emailing JP's site (before he closed it) asking if a link to my weather site could be put on his site, as other independent stations around the country had theirs put on there, i'm pretty sure he has no academic background in meteorology, he's just an amateur forecaster who likes cause a bit of  controversy and grab the weather headlines.  

Any one of us posting here right now could start up what he's done, a basic website ... put your name forward to the papers .. look at the charts out in FI , and then create a ridiculous headline, somebody should try it, i don't think it would take long before your name appeared in the express or mail. Posted Image

 

 

You may be right but if its that easy, instead of people being jealous, why don't they try it, they could end up making a living from it, as a Mail and express reader, I don't like being referred to as some kind of scumbag (I know you haven't but a lot do), I bet if you delved into the lives of all the people who read the Express and Mail and compared their righteousness with those who read the Mirror and the Sun, it would make interesting reading,

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Met office ensemble mean maps out and high pressure is now shown to sit over the UK for winter

 

 

As a result of the high pressure we have below average rainfall

 

 

850 temps slightly above normal

 

 

2m temps slightly below average for England and Wales, slightly above for Scotland

 

 

 

So the met office are going for a very quiet and settled winter, just jamstec left now before we have them all in for the final time before winter

 

Had a look beyond winter and that high doesn't shift

 

Jan to April its still  over the UK

 

As a result rainfall remains below average for the 5 months those maps cover

 

Could have been a worse update I suppose and as Feb 1991 Blizzard pointed out, you can expect some easterlies at times from that setup.  Much better than it showing the core of the high pressure predominantly to our south a la Winter 1988/89!

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So the met office are going for a very quiet and settled winter, just jamstec left now before we have them all in for the final time before winter

 

 

The JMA Ensemble model which recently updated on the 17th, sees this outlook

Posted Image

Dec

 

Posted Image

Jan

 

Posted Image

Feb

 

- so, the JMA Ens seem to concur with the MetO, with High pressure either over us or to our west/south west for Jan & Feb. December sees low pressure dominating, so overall rather wet for this month is my educated guess.

 

Jamstec will hopefully update in the next few days.

Edited by draztik
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Jonathan Powell has issued his winter forecast

 

Winter 2013/3014: A Taste of Winter's Past?

 

December 2013

 

December looks like being an unsettled month with no one particular pattern dominating the whole of the proceedings.  During more settled phases of weather, frost and ice can be expected, perhaps severe with regards to frost.  There will be a risk of sleet and snow, generally across northern and north eastern areas, with perhaps some southerly incursions, although anything sustained here is unlikely.  Milder weather will be in evidence with wet and windy episodes, although around the festive period to the north and north east, perhaps conditions cold enough for a scattering of snow showers, making for a White Christmas.  Drier than average for the month across northern areas, on the average to the south.  Temperatures for December will reflect on or around the average.

 

January 2014

 

January generally looks a wetter and potentially colder month, possibly significantly colder, so combining the two looks likely to produce some snow events of note throughout the first month of 2014, but whilst the mix may favour chillier weather, milder and wetter weather will be in evidence at times.  The emphasis on the snow will not just be across northern regions but fairly widespread at times, giving much of the UK a taste of winter's past, bringing the season more into line with how the weather should be for the time of year.  Perhaps a few surprises during January.  With regards to rainfall, a wetter than average month, with temperatures on or below the average.

 

February 2014

 

February is likely to inherit the cold that January has harboured, so potentially another cold month but perhaps with more of an even split between chillier conditions and milder, wetter ones, although February could still generate a wintry sting.  The north and east look favoured to see the worst of what wintry weather February may produce, with possibly the south more spared, especially late month, although it is unlikely that the south will escape snow completely.  On balance, another winter-like month with rainfall above the average, and temperatures on or around the average.

 

VWS

 

Sunday November 17th 2013

 

http://www.vantageweatherservices.co.uk/3.html

 

 

This is as about as 'woolly' as you can get. """frost and ice can be expected"""  in December that's ground breaking, """Perhaps a few surprises during January""" yes maybe the Sales wont drag on ?

 

Reminds me Psychic sally who I saw at Aylesbury last Friday.

 

I see a name John, Johhna ,Joanna is it Jake, some pleb says I have a neighbour called Jason (that's right !)

 

Anyway a Real forecast

 

 

December 2013

 

December will be a very cold month with a CET of just -0.2c. Heavy frequent incursions of cold air with heavy wintery showers as a sausage high to our west refuses to be cooked and taken off the menu.

 

A large area of Egg remains over Greenland and there is no egg on anyone faces and it stays there

 

The Bartlett cake remains so far south that it never even gets on the menu.

 

Christmas provides no Turkey this year but only Elk that comes all the way from Siberia as temps max out at -4c on Christmas day

 

January 2014

 

January generally looks very cold with the Egg stuck in Greenland and series of channel dates pulling in colder Easterly air. All very tasty

 

CET 0.2c  

 

February 2014

 

Bartlett cake sell the most cake for a century with 19c recorded in London 12th Feb

 

Proof of Global warming CET 7.9C

Edited by stewfox
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3.9c

0.9c

 

Not be long to we get the snow now. Sky has that orange colour. 

 

I smelt winter coming the other day. May be crazy, but perhaps trees give off a slight scent as they prepare for frost. In mild winters I did not smell anything beforehand.

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This is as about as 'woolly' as you can get. """frost and ice can be expected"""  in December that's ground breaking, """Perhaps a few surprises during January""" yes maybe the Sales wont drag on ?

 

Reminds me Psychic sally who I saw at Aylesbury last Friday.

 

I see a name John, Johhna ,Joanna is it Jake, some pleb says I have a neighbour called Jason (that's right !)

 

Anyway a Real forecast

 

 

December 2013

 

December will be a very cold month with a CET of just -0.2c. Heavy frequent incursions of cold air with heavy wintery showers as a sausage high to our west refuses to be cooked and taken off the menu.

 

A large area of Egg remains over Greenland and there is no egg on anyone faces and it stays there

 

The Bartlett cake remains so far south that it never even gets on the menu.

 

Christmas provides no Turkey this year but only Elk that comes all the way from Siberia as temps max out at -4c on Christmas day

 

January 2014

 

January generally looks very cold with the Egg stuck in Greenland and series of channel dates pulling in colder Easterly air. All very tasty

 

CET 0.2c  

 

February 2014

 

Bartlett cake sell the most cake for a century with 19c recorded in London 12th Feb

 

Proof of Global warming CET 7.9C

 

Hope all those eggs don't get scrambled! Posted Image  and as for the cake, well I hope that is well and truly past it's use by date! Posted Image

 

Right made me chuckle, cheers for that Posted Image Posted Image

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Out of interest, I was listening to Smooth FM earlier and the DJ said that he had put a shovel in his car as we are expecting heavy snow this week! Presumably he must have been reading the Daily Express etc. on his lunch break as the BBC Weather forecasters haven't mentioned any such thing! Wishful thinking on his part me thinks! 

 

The anticipation of this Winter is killing me, I really do hope we have some memorable snow events, even if they don't last long, although my preference would be to have a prolonged  and memorable cold spell! Posted Image

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Met office ensemble mean maps out and high pressure is now shown to sit over the UK for winter

 

Posted Image

 

As a result of the high pressure we have below average rainfall

 

Posted Image

 

850 temps slightly above normal

 

Posted Image

 

2m temps slightly below average for England and Wales, slightly above for Scotland

 

Posted Image

 

So the met office are going for a very quiet and settled winter, just jamstec left now before we have them all in for the final time before winter

 

Had a look beyond winter and that high doesn't shift

 

Jan to April its still  over the UK

Posted ImagePosted Image

As a result rainfall remains below average for the 5 months those maps cover

 

well if the met office says its going to happen, then it will, (NOT),

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Out of interest, I was listening to Smooth FM earlier and the DJ said that he had put a shovel in his car as we are expecting heavy snow this week! Presumably he must have been reading the Daily Express etc. on his lunch break as the BBC Weather forecasters haven't mentioned any such thing! Wishful thinking on his part me thinks!

Someone at college today said we were going to get snow this week! This is the problem with joe public! Someone sees the express headline (for example) believe it, the go tell others... I put them in their place :p
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I have got to admit and even repeat myself, nut the extremely high sunspot numbers are worrying me a lot, I do believe they have a say in which way our weather goesPosted Image , I really do hope I am wrong though, PLEASE GOD LET ME BE WRONGPosted Image

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can I just ask all those who have slagged off certain newspapers (express etc) and forecasters (Mr Madden and Powell) for their snowmageddon predictions, if they are right, are we going to see a massive apology from you all

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can I just ask all those who have slagged off certain newspapers (express etc) and forecasters (Mr Madden and Powell) for their snowmageddon predictions, if they are right, are we going to see a massive apology from you all

 

how can they be right (moreso JM)?  unless the express has become the daily paper for finland ??  i may as well state i am slimming expert and i have a pill to make you thin. just a ponzi scheme by another name.

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can I just ask all those who have slagged off certain newspapers (express etc) and forecasters (Mr Madden and Powell) for their snowmageddon predictions, if they are right, are we going to see a massive apology from you all

 

NO, What you have to understand is that although people slag off the Mail and Express for inaccurate weather forecasts, there are really underlying political reasons deep down, I don't know whether you are into politics in the media or not but the perception of the aforementioned papers readerships is that they are 'the im allright jack types' in their eyes, The red tops are equally sensationalist when it comes to weather but they get cut some slack, The Mirror - Dare not criticise a paper that will back Labour no matter what, although the Sun and Star are right wing, their readership are half ok because it is the patronisation and perception that they are the 'less fortunate' and just preyed on by the likes of Murdoch.

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Mind you IF we could get the end of the ECM run, there is a massive cold build up, If we could get those sort of uppers in I cant help feeling even with above average surface pressure that there would be some showers possible.

 

Posted Image

 

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